I have been studying previous bitcoin cycles and I have a question for people who have analyzed it longer. OK, let's think about the BTC 48 months cycle.
Since 2011 it goes like this: 14 months of bear market, then 12 months of a good up (BTC 2x), then we get halving. After halving, we have 12 months of a great UP (10x from bottom) and then 10 months of a mad bull run (blowout top exactly 34 months after 14 months of bearmarket: we peak, then down 14 bear months = bottom, then up 34 good months = peak). 4 years (48 months) on the dot.
In practical terms, we start at jan-feb 2011 where BTC first consolidated from it's genesis point. So from jan-feb 2011 to nov-dec 2013 (34 months) we peaked out at 1.100. Our 34 good months were over, we got to 175 bucks in jan-feb 2015 (14 months of bear). New botom. Again, with our bottom at jan-feb 2015, we got up by 34 months to a 19k blowout top in december 2017. Our 34 good months were over by the end of 2017 then. + 14 bear months later, bottom again at 3300 feb 2019. Now we can start going up.
We did get down in 2020 because of the major black swan event (corona dump), but we fully recovered and the 48 months trend went on intact.
The price is hard to guess, but the WHEN it's gonna happen seems to rhyme cycle after cycle. Does that mean that, whatever the price, we are likely to see a blowout top in december 2021 (peak) and then a bearmarket with a new bottom in feb-2023?
If you count the bottom at jan-feb 2019, we will peak at nov-dec 2021 again (34 months) and then go down for 14 months and have a new bottom in feb-2023. Sounds reasonable?
Right now we got institutions and even sovereign countries involved so maybe it's different. Yes, but I don't see anyway where the bullrun is over BEFORE december. I mean, when we are just nerds plaing with internet money it lasted 34 months, which would mean december 2021 from the bottom of feb 2019. Is there a chance where institutional adoption makes the 34 good months period SHORTER?
Institutions MAYBE prolong the cycle and we have more than 34 good months. But I see people calling tops right now, or in july, or august... Why though? Instutional money could make the 34 good months period SHORTER instead of longer? I don't think so.
What do you guys think?
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