The fact that tesla has validated the microstrategy capital allocation, means that the rest of corporate world MUST follow. no idea how high bitcoin will go as all the public companies (in the world?) allocate a few percent of their capital to bitcoin.
it is guaranteed to be higher than now, so track the public announcements and when 80%+ of companies have bought their bitcoin, that is likely near the medium term top. probably end of this year.
what most people do not realize is that bitcoin is encapsulated electricity and has a lot more backing than paper. granted not as much as precious metals, but in a similar way it cannot be created out of thin air. currently it takes about $20000 of electricity and expensive specialized equipment to mine a single new bitcoin.
so they are of the same family of unprintable assets. the question is not "which one", but rather "what ratio"
the MOST conservative ratio for now is balanced between bitcoin and precious metals and that is when the bitcoin ratio is 1700 to silver and 25 to gold. it is only this high to account for the SHTF scenario where precious metal in hand cant be beat. if to ignore that probably more like 20% in precious metals and 80% in bitcoin, based on the apelike guesstimate of around 10000 oz silver ratio and 100 oz gold ratio based on round numbers, ape like shiny and round numbers. basically a wild guess that after the corporate treasury allocations into bitcoin that it will be half a million or so as gold and silver are themselves doubling in price.
https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/bitcoin/xag
https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/bitcoin/xau
answer the question "gold or silver" and my claim is that you cannot without knowing the current ratio. at a gold silver ratio of 100, clearly silver. at a ratio of 10, clearly gold. exact cutoff would be somewhere around 40 to 60?
similarily answer the question "precious metals or bitcoin" and in this case we dont even know what the range of the ratio is, so we need to wait to see what happens after the corporate money comes in. at that point there would be only one other mass migration event that could revalue bitcoin and that is the central banks. not even silver is held by the central banks, only gold. so it might be unlikely for that to happen. if it does then another 10x on the range of ratios. 100000 to silver and 1000 to gold, but this would only be at a confidence level of less than 10%
remember platinum when it was ignored and discarded as junk, then over the years it is revalued due to its properties. think of bitcoin like that, but where it can be transmitted over the internet. and potentially becoming a monetary asset. palladium, rhodium are other examples of unprintable assets that have risen in value due to supply and demand.
currently the main bitcoin demand is coming from public corporations all trying not be left behind. with tesla and maybe apple doing this, the riskier path is to not do it. so they will all allocate some percentage to bitcoin. 1% to 100%, but on average closer to 1%. this is demand on the order of a trillion dollars and cannot be ignored. crazy as it seems, somehow bitcoin has become trendy with corporate treasurers. what if the same thing happened to rhodium? what price would it get to? what would a reasonable rhodium silver ratio be if every large company in the world became a regular consumer of it?
by understanding the rational ratios relative to the various unprintable assets, we can all do a better job of protecting and growing our overall stack. the non-bitcoin crypto not mentioned as they are more like mining stocks in very early stage, though it is possible that DOGE has become copper.
then again. what do I know. I am just a clueless ape.
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