Many people shill on the cryptocurrencies they support, often anticipating roadmaps and new features to reflect on the prices; ex. ETH 2.0, ICON 2.0. Hard-fork is a little different.
But do any news influence the price?
Really?
Let's look at the search interest based on keywords from Google Trend, 2019~2021:
As you can see, ICX interest follows the general cryptocurrency trend, which is basically just attention on bitcoin.
Icon as a keyword is inapplicable and has no correlation with ICX nor cryptocurrency. And I realized as I researched, Icon is a terrible name (I'll explain why in another post).
But only ICX had a big interest spike in February, 2021.
What happened?
ICX exclusive bull run? MyID/DID? Is it finally climaxing to Alpha Centauri?
No.
Whatever news related to Icon were at the peak, not at the bottom.
BTC was breaking out into a bull run, thus lifting the entire altcoin fam in anticipation, not ICX alone.
But COVID-19 FUD led to a brief market crash. This is evident from the USDT dominance spike, which means cashflow is exiting the market from panic sell-off.
Further evident from BTC miner positions:
All those bullish Icon related media outlets and bloggers spoke nothing about the crash thereafter, nor the fact that ICX had been following BTC trend the entire time.
Because it is a classic example of a false positive correlation. Surely Icon updates and news (ex. MyID/DID) were being searched, but they weren't what led to the price uptrend as the authors correlated as the catalyst.
And the search interest spike was when ICX price action and gain % hit the cryptosphere news, not when Icon announced stuff.
This is just one case study from 2019~2021 timeframe, therefore there may be past events from Icon that had unnoticeably affected the price, or will in the future.
But for any cryptocurrencies, even the big daddy bitcoin, development news/updates do not make the price; the price make the news.
Elon Musk hype and dogecoin are not applicable since they weren't news related to project developments.
Traders are not investors, and investors are not traders. The entire cryptocurrency market moves around bitcoin, and trading activities move the price.
News and authors can write an entire movie script trying to reason the market movements.
But charts don't lie.
ICX sometimes make the news from huge price swings, but otherwise ignored. This is because ICX as a market is unattractive to traders, Icon's development is too detached from ICX as a cryptocurrency, and so all that is left is BTC dependency. 1~5% change in BTC results in 15~50% change in ICX, as from the high BTC dependency, resulting in high volatility.
These might be part of the reason why ICX is underperforming, but great risk-return ratio for idiots like me.
Hence I prioritize BTC analysis, but trade ICX. Hodl/DCA alone is not the effective strategy for ICX, rather short interim trades + smaller hodl stack safety-net is best profitable. This would change as we get a clear idea of ICX price trend cycle in the future. Hodling any top 100 cryptocurrency for few years is still very profitable regardless.
I think automotive, smartphone, then property market will all subsequently crash soon, also bringing the stock market down since it's all pegged to real asset liquidities if all forms of property lose their values. The only property with any real value left might be cryptocurrency in that scenario, funnily enough since it's an intangible digital information.
With all the above said, it's all speculative and no definite evidence to support anything.
tl;dr this is a complete bullshit.
Not an investment advice.
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