Thursday, July 1, 2021

Crypto Bulls and Bears are a myth

When we talk about price, we inevitably get to the topic of the bears and the bulls. "The bears are pushing the price down, but the bulls are battling back at 33k..."

I think this alegory or financial lingo is missleading for a lot of new crypto investors. It makes us imagine some fantastical mighty creatures fitghting to control the price, when in fact, we've all been part of the bulls and the bears, every time we buy or sell crypto, or any other asset.

It's not a battle of the bears and the bulls, never has been. We imagine bears as people who just want to bring the price of an asset down, all the time. But think about it for a while. If someone is a bear and only wants to see the price of bitcoin fall by selling large amounts, why did they buy bitcoin in the first place? Also, when they sell it, they buy it back at a lower price. Are they now bulls? Were they bulls when they were buying their initial investment? So, are the bulls and the bears the same people?

The truth is there are market makers, who have vast amounts of the asset, like the exchanges, whales, institutions, mining pools, and when they feel the market sentiment is becoming negative, they all start selling. And we call them bears. And the "poor bulls don't have enough strength to fight them off".

In reality, their selling rally started a chain reaction and normal investors like you and I start doubting the value of the asset, and many follow in the selling, joining the "bears".

At some point, the market makers start thinking, OK, this is low enough, amost all of the insecure investors have sold their bags. And then, they slowly start buying back, becoming "bulls", while the insecure investors are still selling, and at that point we have periods like the one we are in right now. Sideways price movement. The market makers are smart and mutually coordinated, they don't start buying huge amounts at once, they DCA and try to keep the price low for as long as possible - as long as enough insecure investors are still selling.

When eventually the number of sellers dwindles, the price starts to rise, and then the gloves are off, and the buying starts again full-force pushing the price streight up, and at that point we say, "the bulls have won!"

Tl;dr There are no bulls and bears, the thing that controls the price are world events, the market sentiment and the market makers, who don't give a shit about the "bulls and bears" narrative, only that they buy the most of the asset at as low a price as possible, and sell it at as high a price as possible.


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