Monday, September 6, 2021

A case for a $1 MILLION Bitcoin, before you expect it (just for fun)

(originally commented in r/ CryptoCurrency answering "Do you think Bitcoin will hit the $100,000 mark by the end of 2021?")

When Bitcoin starts to go, it goes fast (leaving the no-coiners in the dust)
Some BIG reasons why it could hit $100K before anyone anticipates:

  1. Liquidity, as seen through on-chain analysis, is some of the lowest
  2. Likewise, hodlers count is the highest.
  3. Attention from the media - tons of Eyeballs. Partially = because of the NFT scams and occasional altcoins making the news. This means the FOMO reach is much wider.
  4. El Salvador is in. Other countries WILL FOMO in (not sure when exactly though)
  5. And lastly, $100K is NOT THAT MUCH from here. Look, 100K is only 100% from here. We just did almost 100% from 28k to 50k and no one is screaming about it. And from the last ATH ($65k) it's ONLY 50% gain

Now a case for $1,000,000 per Bitcoin:

Some potential events to consider. Loosely, by likely to less likely:

  • High inflation / hyper inflation risk. Cause by Supply chain issues (goods from China to the US and other regions) means inflation is ^. (likely no hyperinflation in the western economies yet, but smaller countries could pop and scare others)

OR

  • High inflation / hyper inflation risk. Caused by more irresponsible printing.
    Maybe another bad Covid wave (hits the unvaxed - majority of the world population. Or vaccines not working all that well...)
  • Recession hits hard. Trad assets fall in price, fiat inflation.
  • Natural disaster (not that unlikely)

Don't want to go all doomsday here. But there are also the UNEXPECTED variables.

Keep in mind, it's totally possible for SEVERAL events occur all at once. And when that occurs.....

Similar to what happened to the Titanic: it could withstand 4 of 16 compartment breaches, but 5 compartments were affected, so... it sunk.

This will scare MANY investment managers, into..

But into what? Bonds negative, Equities overvalued, the economy (actual value production) is not humming all that good.

Fund managers buy gold, commodities and other limited supply assets (wink wink)


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