Put in the work, or don't

I hope this post provides information whether you are thinking about buying bitcoin, thinking about selling, or simply want to learn.

Synopsis: The vast majority of people who I know who do not buy bitcoin generally do not understand it. The vast majority who buy a little are risk averse (they avoid any type of significant financial risk and are the type of person who generally will never be rich and never be poor). I respect you if you do the work and say I don't want to buy it for x/y/z reasons. I haven't met anyone in that category.

In the last decade I acquired real estate. As I kept buying, I heard from most people on the last few purchases that it would crash, it was over valued, etc. I did not understand the money printing. I did understand that payments relative to wages was more important than just purchase price. I can't believe people could say xyz will happen and have no basis to their argument. What I have learned is people saying crash or similar to people who chase-emotions rule over common sense. Lack of research pays the price.

There is nothing wrong with saying a market is overvalued or is going to crash. What is wrong is saying that and not having a reason. If you can't explain your lack of investment or your investment, that's a bad sign. I was that way with Tesla- judgemental, not open to ideas.

I have friends who have been saying bitcoin will crash, tulips, etc. Once again, these are fair criticisms. What's not good for them is that they can't explain their position.

Of my group, the people that kept saying real estate crash-well, 50% of them bought homes in the last year. 50%. Why did they buy? Same reason-no reason at all, no research. I might add, many of these people have great incomes, good careers, business owners, etc. It teaches me that you can be smart in many ways and an absolute moron in others.

This same group owns a very small amount of bitcoin, if any. They generally have no idea what bitcoin is. For example, one of the common arguments used is abc coin is better or who is to say another crypto can't take bitcoin's place? Fair reasoning, but that's where their argument stops. They literally parrot a headline they read. They don't put in the work. They can't explain their position. It reminds me when I say a NBA superstar makes $40 million a year and they scoff and say that's outrageous. No research, no thought process, pure emotions.

My thought is that bitcoin is headed towards 500-1,000,000 within the next 5-10 years. I consider this conservative. The lack of putting in the work or putting in the work will have a massive, massive effect on the wealth of you and your family in the next 5-10 years. Many who don't put in the work now will generally fomo in and potentially lose much of their net worth-JUST LIKE THEY DID FROM 2006-2008 IN HOUSING. I am American and can tell you the vast majority will end up with no assets. Leased car, rented house, no retirement. I am closing in on 40 and my research leads me to the following conclusion:

For the first time in our history, at least my generation's, those in the middle and the bottom have a decent chance to better their situation. What is going on with $ printing and interest rates reminds me keenly of 2008-when everything fell apart but the grey haired said it was a bump in the road, things were fine. Those same people are telling us they can taper, that they can normalize rates, or sweet jesus, rates will actually go up.

I don't write this to scare you. I don't think the world will burn down. It will simply change. IMHO, we are 15-20 years away from a real disaster when the dollar finally has it's exit...but we aren't even close to that yet.

THIS IS A ONCE IN HUMAN HISTORY EVENT. A FIAT SYSTEM ON IT'S WIND DOWN OF 50 YEARS. AN EXPONENTIAL CHANGE OF TECH. SOCIAL UNREST INCREASING. THERE WILL BE DIGITAL WALLETS IN EVERY NEW PHONE IN 5 YEARS.

The people in the government do not care about you. They care about the wealthy and they care about keeping those in power, in power. The #1 way to lose power is a bad economy...and so they will keep doing what they are doing. And especially with the bad economic news, they will refuse to taper or raise rates. Every time-100% of the time-that there has been a recession, the fed has cut rates twice. 100% of the time. Keep that in mind when they say rates will go up.

The price of bitcoin is all about the trading at the margin. We know that 70% of people are long term holders-what really happens is the behavior on the margin.

My 2 cents: the next quarter, if it comes with at least 2 S&P 500 companies and an ETF or futures based etf, will drive the price parabolic. And the most critical people, the ones that scoff tulips, will chase it far above 500.

If you choose to buy bitcoin or not buy it, I hope you have a reason. In my opinion: in 5 years you will be at a couples dinner date. And the guy with the 1500 sat score, the high iq, the guy who did everything right will be waiting for the valet. The Bentley will be brought around to the guy with the 1200 SAT, the guy with the C average. The only reason is that he will have put in the work.