1. When in doubt, zoom out! Price changes in one year - average return 2,412% for top 25
On days like this we can see a lot of people expressing their disappointment on the intraday price movements. I’m a frequent lurker on the daily and I can tell you the daily sentiment changes extremely fast, much more sensitive than the Fear & Greed index. But this is because people don't zoom out.
Here is the fuller picture
SHIB data might be unreliable, but the average ROI for the other 24 coins is 2,413%
Recently I just saw a post in which the OP said ADA is highly undervalued (with the OP's disappointment about recent price movement) and I said that OP should zoom out.
2. On-chain analysis: Percentage of holders that are currently in profit, break-even or loss. Many holders are still in profit, despite the recent downturn.
So why does the OP on that post feel unhappy about ADA’s current price? Even though when we zoom out, ADA has done a huge return in a year. Devils are in the details, on-chain analysis shows that a whopping 78% of ADA holders are at a loss now, while only 16% made profits.
BTC, ETH, CRO, MATIC and ALGO have the largest percentages of holders currently in profits. Meanwhile, ADA, LINK and UNI have rendered quite a lot of holders in the red.
The two memecoins (DOGE and SHIB) witness just a bit more than half of the holders in profits (55% and 56%). It’s quite a surprise that 69% of BCH holders are still in profit, even though it’s very far off the ATH in 2018.
3. On-chain analysis: Length of HODLING (or HOLDING) - how real is the diamond hand and how long have they been holding for?
BTC, ETH and BTC have the largest number of HODLERS - more than 50% of the hodlers have had the coins for more than a year. Bitcoin and Ethereum are solid investments and thus always attract a lot of long-term holders, especially large institutional investors in the last few years.
Most SHIB and MATIC (IEO April 2019) holders are newer investors because they were recently launched. However, 92% of ADA investors bought the coin just in the last year, even though it was launched way before (Sep 2017). It is quite evident that lots of people bought in later on when the hype started to spark in the last couple of months.
4. Let’s talk about the whales… how concentrated are these coins in the hands of the big players?
Older coins tend to have lower concentration of the large holders. For example, whales (1%+) and investors (0.1% - 1%) control 11% of Bitcoin supply. The figures for ADA, BCH, ETH and LTC are under 50%.
Note though - many whales hold multiple coins at the same time!!
Newer coins usually have much higher concentration, such as SHIB.
5. On-chain analysis: net network growth & large transactions.
It is MATIC that stands out on both momentum indicators, with net network growth of 3.46% and a whopping 15.67% increase in large transactions, showing the large investors interest. We could link this to an event yesterday - whales added 1,899,990 MATIC in the last 24 hours. As a general theme, layer 2 solutions will be needed for the foreseeable future to enhance scalability.
CRO witnessed 5.29% net network growth and a positive 1.85% rise in large transactions. This is related to the recent successful PR strategy such as the Arena, advertising and acquisition of 2 exchanges.
Whales tend to buy more DOGE lately though the network growth is modest. But it is SHIB that turns bearish on both indicators: net network growth is down by 2.45% and also large transactions fell by 2.25%.
So the market growth has been tremendous in the last 12 months. Various changes and more to come...
What do you think the market direction will be in 2022? Let me know your thoughts.
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