All s-curve adoptions have a shakeout phase. This is the phase where the winner starts separating himself from the pack, and everything that cannot compete dies. This post is an updated one to my post earlier today. People read the title, clearly didn't understand it, downvoted it, skipped the writing, and went straight to the comments section thinking it was pro-shitcoin, when in fact it was the opposite, discussing a reason I haven't heard discussed here as to why PoS is necessary for altcoins, and why BTC's hashpower is a black hole for anything reaching its event horizon in PoW. Here it is again:
Consider Bitcoin Ca$h. Currently, it takes 5% of the BTC hashpower to effectively 51% it. But the problem is, BTC’s hashpower is growing parabolically at a rate 10x Bitcoin Ca$h’s. So by 2025, it would take less than 1% of the BTC hash to effectively 51% it. So it [Bitcoin Ca$h] should continue drawing down in price as it has for 5 years (down 80% in that time), and sliding down the mkt cap rankings (#3 to #27) to where a 51% block reorg isn’t worthwhile or meaningful.
This essentially, means blockchains that use ASICS can be born, but can never be competitive with bitcoin to a point they’re ever relevant. This impairment resistance of bitcoin’s growing decentralization has many parallels in evolutionary biology. It also means that as time goes by, non-canonical forks can’t exist either.
The Vitalik Buterin chain was begun just in time to avoid this filter, but in doing so and remaining competitive, they had to give up informational scarcity—one of the foundations of cryptography. That’s why a full archival node of theirs is 4TB and rapidly growing, while a full node for BTC is 380GB, even though the Bitcoin network is twice as old. Over time, their node growth and thus decentralization gets weaker, and the network slows. PoS is the only way to save its expiry. But by giving up one-directional entropy, your hardness softens, hardness meaning how hard it is to create more. That’s why you need BIP’s to “manage” and reduce your supply. This is never ending. And if it’s never ending, it means simplicity is no longer a fundamental security practice.
The real version of DeFi, the real goals of web3, and decentralization at large, will naturally build around a global stateless money. Money is not TPS, TX cost, or throughput. Those are all features of a blockchain. Wether it’s a human body, a planet, a pizza, or physics, things get built in layers.
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