Monday, May 9, 2022

whats your plan? panic sell everything or take it as an opportunity?

to me, stable coins are not 100% stable, when it goes below 1, buyers come in to buy it up, when its above 1, sellers come in to sell. The UST peg has had issues with depegging before, and the issues were resolved, and the team look for solution to hold the peg stronger. right now, i believe the depegg has to do with 1) massive volatility in the market, and 2) potentially speculative attack on the terra ecosystem (for those who dont know how it works, go on wiki and have a look at asian financial crisis 1997)

The trouble of these events is, these attack or the market volatility do not destroy the peg or the asset on itself, they aim to destroy investors confidence and cause panic selling of the targeted currency...which is what we are seeing right now, people hating, people panicing, everyone is trying to get out from anchor when they have the chance to...

but if we look at the other side of the coin, what if this is just another evaluated temporary depegg moment in terra development? every such event happen will make the developors to enhance the mechanism....and each time it does not die, it grows stronger (sounds familiar? orange coin)

As people are panic getting out of UST, there are traders, believers and opportunists coming in buying UST at big discount. looking at binance, i see UST is at 0.729, which is some 20% above the low...and if you sell your bitcoin or LUNA for UST using their UST pairs, you get a much higher price than the market, this would encourage people to sell for UST as the higher than market price you get to some extend cancel out the lower UST price at the moment....

just wanna add, crypto fear and greed is at 10, if you check the history, i think the lowest it went was 11. what if this supposed terra blow up and end of UST end of terra and end of crypto is the final FUD that bottoms the market? (for those who are not in stocks investments, there were a very widely circulated FUD about the "blow up" of ray dailo's bridgewater fund at the exact bottom of the march 2020 COVID crash, and of course bridgewater is the biggest hedge fund in the world, this article was widely circulated in asia and platforms like wechat) we are at peak fear right now guys, cost and benefit analyst suggests that at this moment, the opportunity > the cost. buy when there is fear and blood on the streets, even its your own blood. just wanna provide some positive energy here, on twitter I am already seeing mass capitulation of bullish analysts, "sorry I was wrong" is everywhere. price has also capitulate, sentiment been at rock bottom and more so now...idk...imagine you are right about UST is going to stay, you gain 30 cents on a dollar, what if UST is going to fail, well the whole crypto space is not gonna do too well...

EDIT: you can sell your BTC for UST at 40,788 (at least right now)...this is the kind of thing that helps to bring UST back to peg. but yes, the team has to serious consider what they should do to avoid situations like this in the future. i personally have faith. good luck and hope for the best (for the good of terra and crypto overall)

EDIT2: in 1997, after soros and his followers crashed korea and thailand, they turned to crash the HK peg. they first borrow a massive amount of HKD (massive deposit into anchor), then they start to build a massive amount of short Hang seng index futures (short luna, btc, alts)...then all of a sudden, they start to unload their HKD (withdrawal from anchor). as HKD supplies keep coming in (anchor keep draining deposit), peoples confidence were destroy and stock market sold off and soros and friends benefited from the shorting of the market, they hope the peg will be destroy and market will collapse completely. long story short, buyers didnt step in, so the government step in and buy up all the blue chips with the city's reverse, confidence was regained, the peg remained stable, soros lost. in this case, we dont have government to step in, but the guys dumping UST arn't soros either. soros at the end of the day just want to profit from it, whether HKD depegg or not does not really matter to him, its how much he makes from his speculative attack.


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