1.0 THE DCI30 CRYPTO INDEX LEVEL TODAY: circa 7:40am pdt today
This post is continually updated (usually), so hit 'screen refresh' and look below item #1.9 (when it appears) for updates, (or not). ;)
DCI30 Index Notes:
The DCI30 Crypto Index was begun 04/07/2022, to serve traders who seek an accurate, reliable, and transparent index of the CryptoMarket, details here:
Yesterday was -53.4%, so we have crept back a bit to the SharkLine on $ellathon Sunday.
Remember: the DCI30 is not weighted to large cap, it is 30 coins, all of equal weight. So DOGE moves the index the same amount that BTC does, (financial democracy that, haha). Some ALTS are leaping huge here, check ATOM proxy for that at item 1.2 below.
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[TLDR: this report area unchanged from yesterday]
The Sheep Bleater's Refrain:
The CPI (insert next cause here) has come and once again, not done anything that was not essentially known beforehand. The big brains churn and burn with their word salad analysis penned to impress (everyone has to eat), but the simple K.I.S.S. facts are this:
(1) there is a lot of money that needs to go to work
(2) that $$$ is being eaten alive by inflation's chomp chomp (so it is in extreme tension, and not the FOMO type, but the organic fiscal "have to" variety\):*
*Psssst: this is strong, strong like GRAVITY strong.
(3) it is only a matter of time before the band is struck back up (and up). Law of the Lambo Loving Lemmings! The Market "will" adjust to 'the new black', and THAT cash "will" be deployed. WHEN, not "if" is the operative question. This market has been laughing in the face of risk-and that is duly noted here in this view. "More risk is ok" may become a new black of sorts.
*(4) The TIP ETF Chart is the best forward compass for what (RIA v RINA) is coming down the line . . . keep in mind there is a two week-ish delay from that 'cause' to its 'effect'.....*and at present, that 2 weeks has us DOWN hard from here. ;)
(5) Some new rules are getting written here, as "this time IS different". :)
(6) Meanwhile, enjoy the volatility/yoyo action, things are moving at last! The goose by the BOJ , won't work forever, but it may work well enough for now. This is NOT a healthy market-this is a 'running wounded' market.
And About that Money thing:
" There is a lot of dry powder on the VC/PE side and we have multiple data points of creation through periods of distress as bootstrapping, innovation and human ingenuity come to fore when resources become more scarce. To put numbers to those theories….126 unicorns were formed in GFC and PE and VC combined have have $2.5 trillion of dry powder currently which is 8.5x the amount they had in 2000 (GS) "
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1.1 THE ONE CHART THAT RULES THEM ALL: TIPS ETF
1HR TIDE VIEW: That dashed red line is DDT Day Trend Support developed over a YEAR.
CHART LINK: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/wNsPO8kT/
[TLDR: this report area unchanged from yesterday]
Market effects are generally delayed in response to this by a couple of weeks. Breach is continuing to consolidate, and now rebroken trending support-causing it to be reset lower.
2022 Bottom in thanks to BOJ Friday? (Doubt it!) Watch the dashed 1hr intermediate static, that goes, and we have high probability trend reversal....which sends us back to the Day OHR, (dashed green). THAT is the relief rally range for November here. THAT is bitcoin running back into 25k range. And THAT just got a fade memo from TIPS after FOMCfollies.
TIPS just pinged off the noted static OHR (see circle) at a lower level than last time, and is heading down severely here to reset support-ouch! What a difference a couple of days make . . . rallies don't happen in the near future with this in the absolute present-that is just how it "generally" works. This is a weak market-weakening. Headwinds are stacking up-I am posting them as I see them.
Watch this one closely as it's THE HUGE 800lb canary in everybody's room.....and due to the time prognostication attribute (2 week correlation), we are getting the heads up for November week3ish here"
1.1.1 TIP Divergence Appears & Suddenly Widens
=======> THIS is what I am trading short here, from the short side of the SharkLine. ;)
Watch Me Failtm :)
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1.2 THREE COIN MERGE/DURGE/PURGE MACRO VIEW:
7:57am pdt: Welcome To SellathonSaturday!
5m Chart: 3 Coins To Represent This Lemmings Come Hither Market: BTC (patriarch-white), ETH (matriarch-teal), ATOM (the kids-blue). All running tight here.
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1.3 THE CRYPTO MARKET TREND SPOTTER: "BTC Watch"
====> HEADS UP ON THIS ONE GANG-READ THE 1-9 EVENTS & 11/01/2022 = was point of singularity
7:58am pdt: approaching OHR1 (again)
[TLDR: this report area unchanged from yesterday]
WHATS NEW: see Patterns A to A1. "A" was consolidation after dump move, "A1" is consolidation after pump move. RSI is tracking up, and spinning tops abound just where DDT TA expected. Trend reversal in the air there*.
*["Point of Singularity" (Support vs OHR trend collision) has occurred, and lo: we got a spinning top for the day...the #1 trend reversal candlestick, all just in time for the FOMCfollies. Doesn't get much better than that. ;)]
===>Summary Case For Up:
BTC and ETH and now ATOM tides have moved from negative to neutral to positive===>that is trend turning signaling. IF we break the OHRs to the line of Demarcation and maintain that for a couple weeks, THEN we are in a new RIA environ. (I don't think it will happen, but we shall see soon enough.)
===>Summary Case For Down:
We have fallen back well under OHR1 hard. Ouch! Nothing magical here, just pure persistent weakness. Sideways consolidation in a descending weak market that has heavy RINA pressures (primarily CPI/FED/BOJ Mambo here), this "usually" results in a subsequent leg down. Indeed, net down is all that can be seen thus far.....until very recently.
Trade Note: I am reminded of the last time SKYNET ran BTC up to 25k zone, just to reverse it into 18.1k zone fast, so careful there with the giddy longs as well as aggressive shorts. Things have been very quiet, and now all of a sudden . . . SKYNET is on the move.
CHART LINK: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/8wgeh9Uj/
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If you are an active or learning trader, I strongly recommend you read recent posts and their updates, as day to day I may not repeat important post items, only slather on new data as I find it. :)
There is a free treasure trove of information here, stuff you will find nowhere else, (original content):
https://www.reddit.com/r/DorothysDirtyDitch/comments/qrr32h/welcome_all_yee_broad_sword_scalpers/
Good Luck & Viva La Share-IF YOU SEE IT IN THE DATA, PLEASE CALL IT OUT, (no narratives por favor)!
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1.9 UPDATES FOLLOW, (trades I make are in comments section-posted when time permits):
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