I've watched on-chain data for years. I'd argue that currently, it's the most bullish I've ever seen it, and the micro backdrop looks the same. I'm calling for $500k in the next 12 months. Longterm holders are in a longterm uptrend, while short-term holders are in a longterm downtrend. When you consider the halving we had in 2020 (which means only 6.25 coinbase per block), the rise of commercial mining (which means huge amounts of HODL'ed bitcoin), the parabolic growth of the LN (which means ever increasing amounts of BTC locked in nodes), the explosion of hard wallets (Trezor will give you 13% off if you wait to buy yours, and Ledger tripled its capacity), the possibility of spot ETF's (which means pension, IRA, and institutional exposure), that 90% of all BTC has already been mined (the last 10% will take over 100 years to mine), etcetera, there's not much time left until we reach the counterpoint. That's where governments, financial institutions, and wealthy families late to the inevitability compete for the last large tracts of UTXO space on the blockchain, and bring the type of volatility the gold/papiermark enjoyed, before bitcoin's transactional (currency) epoch arrives:
On the micro side, all the publicly listed bitcoin companies (miners, FinCen etcetera), are at exhausted RSI's and trading at or below 52-week lows. The perp funding rates are negative. Futures ETF's have been in a consistent downtrend since November. The fear and greed index reached multi-year lows two days ago. Too, the massive amount of Asian selling is drying up (Huobi alone dumped 350k coins over the last quarter and several exchanges dumped all their Chinese customers). But you'd never know any of this from the story on-chain data is trying to tell us that dumb money isn't heeding:
So for me, I'm going to follow the subtext, and not listen to the noise. I'm going to trust the math. I'm going all-in with my dip money which I usually keep at 5% of my BTC holdings. I'll do so un-hedged, and prepare a loan on my BTC in the event one of the below FUD's drives us down briefly.
FINAL FUD
There are 3 potential FUD's this year, and after, there won't be anymore, ever.
- Regulation. This will obliterate altcoins and almost all stablecoins.
- Mt. Gox distribution date
- Russian invasion of Ukraine. This could spike energy prices, clobber mining's economy of scale, and force distribution of several miner's holdings to pay overhead. Kazakhstan produces energy at .04-.05 cents per kWh, which is about the cheapest in the world and has 20% of the hash power for example. Adding .01 to that is extremely severe.
Bitcoin will pivot off all of this quickly.
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