While we are basically all just waiting for the countdown to the next halving right now which will come in about exactly one year form now, it may be a good time-pass if we look at what may be awaiting us after the next Halving. Personally, I think I have already heard a hundred times about the “big“ bull market coming after the next Halving.
But that may just be one half of the story, I don‘t want to be bearish, but historically the returns for each bull market after the Halving have been diminishing, meaning they have gradually declined. Which is actually nothing bad at all.
Market Cap increase per Halving
Here we can see the market cap growth from each Halving until the next one. While from 2016 to 2020 we had a 16x growth, this Halving epoch we are just having a 2.5x growth so far with one year remaining. This would logically mean that the next Halving will also cause a bit less extreme bull market, which makes sense as with a higher market cap way higher sums of money are needed to move the prices.
But there is one metric that has seen explosive growth throughout… the total amount of USD settled on the Bitcoin Network.
Here the growth went from: $10B in the first Halving to $690B during the second, $12T during the last Halving epoch and we are standing at about $94T during this Halving. Which makes it clear that during the next Halving epoch we will have well over $100 Trillion dollars settled on the Bitcoin network. This is an unfathomable number.
This just happens to show that even if we are not seeing the same explosive bull markets for prices, the mass adoption is just accelerating even further and that metric is arguably even more important than any prices.
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