Thursday, July 27, 2023

No, DCA is not a guaranteed way to earn profit.

The mantra on this subreddit is 'DCA is a viable strategy to guarantee profit'. I would argue from a risk analysis point of view, this is plain misleading and has the potential to lead new crypto investors down the wrong path.

Firstly what you DCA into is more important that simply DCAing. For example, if you DCA into Bitcoin long term over let's say safemoon (just to use an extreme example) the person DCAing into Bitcoin is likely to come out better long term over safemoon. I am not suggesting bitcoin is the guaranteed performer long term but simply making the point what you DCA into is more important than blindly implementing the strategy.

Secondly even if you do your research and commit to a DCA strategy, you are still subject to a huge amount of risk. Crypto is a highly volatile asset. You only need to compare the 2020/2021 bull run to Now to see just how much crypto can flip so rapidly. There are still so many risks in crypto, government regulation, unforseen black swan events like exchanges collapsing, inflation. Let's just say you DCA for 5 years into Bitcoin. At the end of the 5 years Bitcoin is worth significantly less than your lowest of DCA averages. Let's say bitcoin continues to decline and never recovers. You have spent 5 years investing in an asset that is depreciated and now you are faced with the decision to be trapped investing in bitcoin or covering your losses. Arguably in this scenario you were better simply putting your money in a bank.

I understand there are alot of variables, but the bottom line is in my opinion, DCA is not immune from the broader risk of investing in crypto. I would say consider your options carefully before blindly following the mantra of DCA on this subreddit.


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