Wednesday, November 29, 2023

What’s just as bad for fiat as inflation is a deflation of people. Fiat cannot compensate for a decline in population. Bitcoin can.

*I don’t know how accurate any of this is. It’s just speculation.

In the fiat model, a swarm of consequences come from lots of people dying. Today, sperm counts and birth rates are decreasing, and life expectancy is longer than it was, for example, in 1850. When there are fewer people on earth, fewer participating in the market, demand drops, thus profits drop. Prices drop. Wealth declines because of the masses of people whose 401ks and other wealth management mechanisms propped up the market were now being moved to more pressing matters.. Businesses fail. If an event happened that wiped out half of the USA, there would be orders of magnitude more buying power in the market.

Of course this would come with waves of corrections over, what I would guess would be generations-decades at least. Some of that buying power would disappear, some of it would be inherited, small local banks might be wiped out, especially in the case of nuclear warfare, where those banks might literally be destroyed. But in large part, the buying power would still be here.

It could possibly trigger a depression, and that’s not considering external events, what wars might be fought, what mechanisms of society might be lost because of the death of the people who once preformed those functions. In bitcoin’s case, a lot of that coin would disappear with their owners. Especially considering how many millennials don’t have children, millions of coins might vanish. The market would then contain the same amount of buying power as the survivors had before.

Thanks to scarcity, there would be relative stability in the markets versus the fiat example. Thanks to the decentralized state of the miners, the protocol would carry on as usual. No banks would need to be rebuilt because each person is their own bank. With the stability of the market during these trying times, much like the early days of humanity when man found that he could sell his produce for a profit and literally buy himself more time for less crucial or more thought intensive matters, society, or what was left of it, could spend that much more time immediately concerned with solving the other demanding issues of the event. In the war example, bitcoin could affectively end the war sooner. Considering lots of wars have been fought in direct or gradual consequence of a failed monetary system, it would likely avoid conflicts altogether.

Stay strapped. Stack sats.


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