To readers in 2025 and beyond: at the time of this post, 1 year before the March 2024 halving, investors generally believed that the 2024 halving event would cause the price of Bitcoin to go parabolic.
If all investors believed in the power of the halving, they would have already invested all of their money before the event. This means there would be little new demand for Bitcoin from existing investors after the halving. The pace of new investors joining will be the major factor tipping the balance between supply and demand. The change in mining output, however, would have less of an impact on the price.
Let me ask: Will new investors be more likely to invest before or after the halving? I would say there is no reason for new investors to prefer joining after the halving and it is a minor factor. New investors decision is based on the amount of money they have, inflationary stress and most importantly, the past performance of Bitcoin. If this year's Bitcoin performance is down, by March 2024, the "past performance" (i.e. today's performance) will not look good, so there is even less reason to buy the dips today.
The winner could be those who actually bought the dip after the halving in March 2024, as demand slowly creeps back. At that time (exactly 1 year later), few will chant "buy the dip".
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