A few things to start with. First, I will be out of town next week. We leave Sunday and don’t return until Saturday. We will be in the Bahamas on a Disney Cruise! I plan to buy a wifi package so I can check in with you guys and of course the markets. Second, I apologize for no TA last night. The baby finally got discharged from the hospital again last night and its just been a rough week with all of that happening.
Next week as I the title suggests is earnings week. We will see some of our larger names start to report earnings such as Tesla, and google.
If you some how missed it… the market is CLOSED tomorrow for Good Friday…
Data wise for next week honestly a pretty light week of events/ releases. Biggest market mover likely comes on Friday when we get the U of Mich consumer sentiment release.
SPY/ ES WEEKLY
The one thing I was watching this week was for whether the weekly double top would play out or not. I didn’t quite anticipate the massive gap up which makes the double top technically invalid from a candle stand point. However, the bigger thing I am watching here is the fact that we came up and touched the weekly 8ema resistance and had a major rejection on both SPY and ES.
The failure to break through the weekly 8ema is certainly bearish. However, as you can see here the weekly 100ema support at 524.28/ 5279 also held. Much like intraweek here the daily 8 and 20ema levels were our support/ resistance here now on the weekly the 8/ 200ema are the levels to watch.
Because I wont have a post up for you guys at all next week I will give a bigger projection here… as long as the bears continue to reject the weekly 8ema resistance and this weekly yellow bear channel resistance the favor goes to the downside.
If the bears can close us under weekly 200ema support of 524.28/ 5279 next week then the target would be a retest of the double demand/ support from 495.03-504.79/ 5000-5092. The bears must close below that level to see the next major leg down.
If the bulls can hold the weekly 100ema support there is a weekly double bottom that may play out. The double bottom can play out two ways… it can either cause a retest the following week back off weekly 8ema resistance that then sets up the bigger rejection lower or it could be a massive bounce that takes us over weekly 8ema. If the bulls can retake weekly 8ema resistance my target then is weekly 20ema resistance near 566/5712.
SPY WEEKLY LEVELS
Supply- 609.64
Demand- 504.79 -> 570.76
ES WEEKLY LEVELS
Supply- 6130
Demand- 5092 -> 5755
QQQ/ NQ WEEKLY
Here on QQQ/ NQ we have a pretty similar setup as we do over on ES/ SPY. One thing that I did not talk about on ES/ SPY that I will mention here is that we did not get a new weekly supply. Generally speaking the failure to put in a new supply despite a rejection like this can play out as a major failed breakdown and lead to even bigger breakout. However, that is only one metric to look at and as of right now I am seeing quite a bit of bearish price action in terms of the EMAs.
When you look at the weekly 8ema of 466.51/19277 here on QQQ/ NQ we have an even more impressive and strong rejection off that and the weekly yellow bear channel. Here on QQQ we officially have three touches of the same trend line which is a VERY strong line to watch.
Much like on ES/ SPY the weekly 100ema support of 444.34/18380 is the level to watch. Here on QQQ/ NQ as you can see the bears are winning just a little bit more here but the fight is not over yet.
If the bulls can double bottom and bounce us here then they must take out and close over 466.4/ 19272 the weekly 8ema resistance. If they manage to do that we will see a bigger break out to 20ema resistance near 485.9/20070.
On the flip side if the bears can hold yellow channel resistance at 454.06/ 18990 next week they will look to close under ideally 422.41/17479 which is demand/ support from our previous lows. That then sets up a weekly 200ema support test near 392.07/ 16178.
QQQ WEEKLY LEVELS
Supply- 383.75 -> 538.18
Demand- 422.41 -> 487.33
NQ WEEKLY LEVELS
Supply- 15857 -> 22191
Demand- 17480 -> 20173
VX/ VIX DAILY
I would call today mostly a flat/ neutral day. Honestly much of the last 3 days was flat and tight range trading. Which we have not seen on an intraday level in quite a while. I have been watching Vx/ VIX closely for a hint of where we may be going next and honestly there really is not a good hint yet.
I thought 4/15s bounce and doji would put in a new demand and cause us to see a breakout on VX/ VIX and a breakdown in the markets. However, we did not get a new demand. So that plays along with the weekly ES/ NQ failure to put in a new supply.
Generally speaking until I see VX/ VIX break and lose the daily 50ema support of 23.54/ 25.77 I struggle to be longer term bullish. Likely this breakout would coincide with a daily 8/ 20ema breakout through resistance too. However, I struggle to see strong continuation lower until we get a closure back over daily 8ema resistance of 29.32/33.27.
As of right now Vx/ VIX is also in a tight choppy range just like the market.
BITCOIN DAILY
The one thing I continue to watch here on bitcoin is the fact that it largely remains unphased by all the market shenanigans. I am actually quite impressed by that. Largely if we zoom out the trend is technically the same as we have seen a downside move that has led to largely consolidation.
Last week it appeared we were seeing a daily 20ema rejection and that 85056-85967 supply/ resistance was going to be the top and that we would get a move back down to test weekly 200ema support at 80771. However, impressively we held the daily 200ema support and now we are actually back over both daily 8 and 20ema resistance.
Bitcoin is attempting to establish 8/ 20ema as support at 83837. If that support holds the next major level to watch is 50/ 100ema resistance at 86835. If the bulls can breakout and close over 50/ 100ema resistance I honestly could see a larger recovery in both bitcoin and the markets.
However, if that 50/ 100ema resistance rejects or if this 85056-85967 supply/ resistance rejects I would like to see a move back to 80770 the daily 200ema. The bears will then need to close under that level and hold to then look for 77038 demand to be retested.
WEEKLY TRADING LOG
I have got to say outside of trading this was just a crazy busy wild week with everything going on. This week for being a 4 day trading week honestly was pretty kind and not too bad. I almost let the week get away from me today on my FFF accounts. I was very much so struggling and I came very close (about $100) from blowing those 4 funded accounts. However, I am happy I put in a perfect week and I am closing out a nice green week with 3 payouts heading into my vacation!
Truly I am a weebit sad that I am leaving for my trip cause I am back on a hot streak and I also have every single account I have setup for a payout next week. But I am also looking forward to some much needed family time and time away from the market!
FFF- I completed day 4 of 7 today. I just need three small days and I will be set up for a great payout from all 4 accounts.
Tradeify- I completed day 6 of 10 today. I am at the point now where I have completed the required consistency rules, buffer and profit target too. For now I just need to flip 4 more days of trading and I will be able to get a payout! This will be my first payout with Tradeify and I am excited for that!
MFFU-
I took a payout in all three accounts this week and all three accounts will be ready for a payout the week I get back!
365/394- just need 2 more $100 days for another payout
395- just need 4 more days of $100 for another payout
If all goes well. Next week I should be able to get 8 payouts between the three firms.
No comments:
Post a Comment