BTC fluctuated within a narrow range of 3600-3440 for several days, and still showed a weak state of the upside. Looking at the trend of BTC over the past six years, we found that prices basically showed weakness and weakness in January, which is also widely known as Bitcoin "Spring Festival effect." The reason is that China, South Korea and other bitcoin countries have passed the Lunar New Year, and they have been out of BTC, buying Chinese New Year supplies and spending on Chinese New Year. To some extent, BTC will be thrown to trigger a downtrend.
Then, from the data, do we analyze whether the "Spring Festival effect" is really established? Let's take a closer look at the fluctuations in prices around the Spring Festival.
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By observing and comparing, compared with the three months before and after, the BTC price during the Spring Festival is often relatively stable, and in addition to the overall decline after the 14-year Spring Festival, there are often fluctuations in the other years after the holiday. Even though it entered the bear market last year, it still showed a good trend during the Spring Festival.
On the whole, the BTC price during the Spring Festival is often relatively stable. There will be no plunging in the absence of a major environment, national policies, or special events that cause market changes. The relationship with the Spring Festival effect is not very large. Next we look at the specific market analysis.
1.BTC/USDT
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According to the monitoring, the number of BTC transfers decreased by 6.57% compared with the previous day, and the number of active addresses dropped by 8.49% to 526,800. The ratio of futures to long-term ratio was unchanged at 1.08. BTC's popularity rebounded slightly, but the chain activity was still below the active line. At present, the BTC may run along the 3720 in the shock period, but the breakthrough is unlikely.
From the perspective of capital flow, both the main capital and the retail funds are in a net inflow state, and a large amount of capital inflows may push the price to rebound. From the perspective of futures positions, the current ratio of long positions is still greater than the ratio of open positions. In the futures market, investors hold positions and wait for prices to rebound further.
From the technical analysis, BTC still runs in the 3720-3440 shock zone. Yesterday, the price once again started to rise and test the 3600 pressure level. The current price is blocked and fails to break through. It is expected that the price will oscillate around 3600 and try to break through the 3600 pressure again. If the breakthrough is successful, the price will run to 3720. But if it can't break through for a long time, the price will probably fall back to 3440 again.
Pressure Point： 3600 3720 4070
Support Point： 3440 3380 3150
2.ETH/USDT
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From the perspective of capital flow, ETH's main funds reversed the net outflow of funds for many days, and there was a small amount of net capital inflows, while retail funds were still in net outflow, capital outflows slowed down, and prices rebounded.
From the perspective of futures positions, the current ratio of open positions and positions of multiple single positions are still basically the same. Under the premise that the price fluctuations are getting smaller and smaller, the futures investors basically hold positions and wait for directions.
From the technical analysis, ETH runs for several days near the lower edge of the turbulent region between 130 and 110. The current price volatility is reduced. On the one hand, it reflects the lack of new inflow funds, and on the other hand, it reflects that there is no funds in the market. Willingness to operate. Therefore, the possibility of large price fluctuations is reduced. Now pay attention to whether the lower edge of the shock zone 110 can support the price. If it falls below 110, the price will move down to the 110-100 range.
Pressure Point：130 150 160
Support Point：110 100
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