TLDR; my Deep Dive video on Decentralized Prediction Markets.
Decentralized prediction markets utilizing blockchains have been thrusted into the forefront lately with hot predictions on presidential election outcomes for example. In these markets, you can bet on the outcome of various political, sports, corporate, weather, etc. type of events by buying shares or tokens that indicate that some event will (YES) or will not (NO) happen. At the end of the time period specified in the smart contracts, the correct prediction's token will be worth $1 while the incorrect shares will be worth $0.
Prediction markets could be a good way of gauging the probability of some outcome occurring. So if YES shares are worth $0.60, then we could roughly say that the current probability of that event happening is 60%. Of course the price fluctuates over time as information changes and as more people buy or sell or trade these prediction market shares. Some popular or notable projects are Bitcoin Hivemind, Augur, Gnosis, Delphy, Polymarket, etc.
They offer many benefits to centralized approaches like censorship resistance, a global liquidity pool, and more. But also they face hurdles - poor UI, poor liquidity, low activity, and hence leads to little adoption.
In this video, I dive deep into all things prediction markets and break it all down for you. And I would love to hear YOUR thoughts on these platforms and if you've tried out (or actively use) any of them!
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