This often quoted phrase is from the 70's and is in reference to scientific models.
NOTE: I'm not talking to you day-traders, you folks do whatever you do, I'm talking to the average Joe retail crypto investor.
Economics, stocks, crypto are even more difficult to use models with because unlike many scientific experiments, it's difficult to reproduce and/or isolate specific variables that have fairly large weights to a system.
Events like bitcoin halvening are easily recognized, predictable, etc. This is very well know to heavily impact the market. Bitcoin dominance as well.
Geopolitical, global economic crises or events, specific country's economic or tax policies, etc. fall into a different bucket of more murky, and difficult to predict impact on.
If a market were perfectly predictable, it would no longer be predictable because it would then cause buying and selling pressure as a result of that knowledge.
No one knows what the price will be a month from now, a year from now, or ten years from now.
If you think crypto will go up over 5-10 years and like it? Invest. If you think it will go down? You're probably in the wrong subreddit.
Anyone telling you that bitcoin will go to 10k based on some model? Well, Elon just tweeted or somehow Satoshi dumps his wallet. Maybe the temperature rises in some area causing collapse of some commodity market. That model? Useless.
Invest in what you believe in, don't go all in because someone said the price will hit something. They don't know. They can't know. The only certainty are things like halvenings, tax policies being weird, and that cardano will have smart contracts by 2070.
Thank you for listening to my Ted talk.
No comments:
Post a Comment