Here are some things I am interested in and not interested in getting into discussions/debates/arguments over when it comes to social media, bitcoin and trading in general.
Debating fundamentals
I do not debate positions based on fundamental analysis. The strategies I am using are rules based technical analysis strategies and I’ve backtested them against historic BTC moves and used them in real BTC moves with results I find satisfactory. Those results no longer being satisfactory would be the reason for me to stop using them. Nothing else.
Fundamentals do not appear to me to be very useful in speculating on the price of BTC over 6 - 12 months. The first high was with China regulations. By the time I could have taken action on this the low was being made. The high came with El Salvador news, if I’d taken action on this I would have been slaughtered. The other day the market was selling off because of the Russian invasion, by the time I could have taken action on that the low was being made.
I do not see how a thesis news based can be tested or proven valid. China news dumped the market 50% and then it doubled. So did this news matter? El Salivdor adoption was the high. Now El Salivdor is being downgraded by debt rating agencies. It does not appear El Salivdor had great timing, that it went well for them or been a net bullish event for the market. On news of war the market went down a little and up a lot. ETFs people used as reasons we’d not go back under 50K at the high are now coming out and we’re under 40K today. To me this is a maze of paradoxes and false trading signals. If these have value to you, more power to you. They have no value to me.
Unqualified or untested debate on technical analysis
“That’s not the support, this is the support”. Naked statements like this have no real meaning to me. Especially when I am not consulted as to why I think a level is important. The things I am using I have tested. They are set methodologies and I know they will not work all the time but there’s a reason I am doing it. I define the odds as overall profitable. I don’t think you should “Trust me, bro” - So all I do is post the implied trades from my analysis so there’s the option of a fair testing of these, after the price has moved. I’m not going to argue about future price moves before they happen. What’s the point?
Let’s say I use moving averages and you think they’re not as good as trendlines, just for an example. And I’ve used moving averages for 10 years and been profitable with them. If you’re not profitable with them, I'm going to assume I know things about them you do not. You might indeed know a lot more about trend lines than me. I’m not going to have unqualified debates on if trendlines or moving averages are better. I’m open to testing and learning. I’ll show you what I am doing, you show me what you’re doing. If you produce better results then I’m interested in what you’re doing.
Assumptions of the future when it comes to price targets
If I say I am short until $26K or I won’t buy until $10K, I’m expressing what my strategies imply are the best ways for me to trade. If you do not agree, that’s fine. I’m not going to get involved in a debate where either one of us pretends to know the future with certainty. People have been telling me my short targets were silly since the price was 69K. The next ones might miss, but all the ones to this point hit. I learned a little saying when I was talking about risks at the high that now applies to those telling people it won’t go lower - “You’ll be right eventually and then you can say ‘I told you so’”.
I’m interested in testing ideas. If you want to tell me it won’t go lower than a certain price or is going above a certain price and also tell me when that would be wrong I am interested to see how that goes. I’ve found it’s best to assume everyone knows less about the market than they think they do (Me included) and I just discard any absolute statements about future price moves. It might be a mistake on my part, but I now just assume anyone talking in absolutes about future price moves does not know as much as they think they do. Uncertainty is a learned trait of all successful market forecasters I know of.
Unqualified debate about strategy
What sort of risk:reward ratios to trade. Win rates to target. In and out vrs buy/hold. Places to target and re-enter or whether people should do this at all. These are all opinions and come with a lot of nuances that either need to be discussed in detail and tested against each other or are just a waste of time talking about. I’ve traded a long time and have a “Whatever works best for you” mindset when it comes to this. As I’ve said previously, I am open to learning and testing ideas. Interested in that.
Not open to people making blanket statements about what I should do when they do not know any of the reasons I do any of the things I do. I’ll assume I may know more about what I am doing than you do and also assume you might know less about what you're doing than you think. If you assume that about everyone, you’ll be right most of the time. So it’s nothing personal against anyone, but in my book if you can’t show it you don’t know it.
All other things aside, the best strategies to use depend upon the goals of the individual. Their risk tolerance. What stage they are in their life. How they plan to manage their positions in the future. A lot of times here people who think you should only buy and hold seem to want to lecture people on their trading approach. I know I have the option to buy and hold, for my own reasons I choose to use strategies that are more active and adapt to market conditions. This is right for me, it might not be right for you and I’m not enforcing it on you. Just showing some of the things I do in case anyone else has similar goals and my experience can benefit them.
Being exclusively argumentative or insulting
No time for it. Was quite big on this in my 20s. If you’re in your 20s, I have empathy for why you think this is a suitable way to be. I grew out of that by my 30s in general and if I did want to argue with people or be insulting to them, I’d find an arena outside of the markets. I’d go and argue against people I find repulsive and being of harm to the world in general. Not someone who had a different form of analysis from me on a market in which none of us know for sure what the next thing to happen will be.
I do understand that some people seem to think using a form of analysis they do not use or shorting an asset they are involved with falls under the category of being repulsive oer being of general harm to the world. Your attempts to start fights with me will be one sided battles. I’ve got no problem with you. We’re all part of the market. Whether you win or lose your participation in the market is important to my ability to do what I want to do in it. I’m respectful of everyone having their own positions for their own reasons and that being the very thing that makes the market possible. I like the market, so I want it to be possible.
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