Wednesday, June 4, 2025

What GP looks for in consensus upgrades

https://preview.redd.it/22t7uk5qw05f1.jpg?width=1280&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=63d85971fe9034cf9a3afd79280ac6521e1d2ec9

General Protocols as a company is broadly interested in two things, in order:

Long-term prospects of Bitcoin Cash as widely used permissionless money for the world.
Short and long term usefulness of the Bitcoin Cash in all its aspects - currency, protocol and network - to General Protocols' current and prospective products.

GP has been an active participant in the CHIPs Process for BCH upgrades since its introduction in 2021. CHIPs is the first attempt at permissionless, consistent upgrades that invite network participation in and orderly manner in any Bitcoin branch. The first CHIPs document laid out some principles , recommendations for benefits and costs , as well as comparison to alternatives.

Let's take a closer look at some specific proposals in the past, which benefits and costs we prioritize - or not!.

Past cases

Unconfirmed transaction chain limit (2021)

Context: https://github.com/softwareverde/bitcoin-cash-chips/blob/master/unconfirmed-transaction-chain-limit.md

Lifting of the unconfirmed transaction chain limit was perhaps the single biggest improvement to BCH's user experience since the fork. The original 25-transactions limit relay policy at fork was crippling; the revised 50-transactions cap was still extremely limiting. These caps were already an annoyance in daily cash use, as seen in frequent payouts during BCH events. They would become debilitating as BCH gained more defi capabilities in later consensus upgrades, as UTXO chains pass around unrelated parties in quick succession.

This chain limit was the result of a mempool policy called Child-pays-for-parent (CPFP), an algorithm that optimized miner income when mempool is congested and choices have to be made. Importantly, BCH's community generally considers full mempools as something that should happen very rarely. Optimizing behavior during congestion at the cost of a large UX degradation during non-congested times would seem to make a lot less sense than other contexts where full mempools were not only frequent, but encouraged.

The CHIP proposed removing the chain limit entirely. It was radical at the time as CPFP's performance cost rises dramatically as unconfirmed chains get longer - most considerations accordingly explored how far could nodes plausibly extend the limit under the same paradigm.

It was not until BCHN actually tested removing CPFP mechanisms entirely that the community realized how little the chain limit mattered in performance, as long as CPFP was removed as a relay policy. It also had no negative impact on existing users; no known applications depend on the 50-tx limit to function.

The Unconfirmed Transaction Chain Limit CHIP therefore had a very large benefit to both BCH and General Protocols, while having essentially no cost outside of initial implementation. General Protocols decided to support the proposal.

ASERT difficulty adjustment algorithm (2020)

Context: https://github.com/bitcoincashorg/bitcoincash.org/blob/master/spec/2020-11-15-asert.md

ASERT came at a turbulent time for BCH. Coin price was down dramatically from a multiyear bear market, miner interest was waning, and the chain was facing another potentially destructive split from its then-lead developer's unilateral push to collect a consensus-enforced miner tax for himself.

BCH further faced an existential crisis as a proof-of-work coin: Constant mining, as opposed to opportunistically switching to BCH only when profitability peaks, was getting too unprofitable thanks to a flaw in its difficulty adjustment algorithm, exacerbated as a minority chain. At worst this could lead to a death spiral as fewer and fewer hashpower persist through the bad times; at best it led to frequent episodes of very long gaps between blocks, degrading user experience. ASERT smooths out profitability, incentivizing more consistent mining.

It did not come without a cost, though. Any change in difficulty adjustment impacts client software that depends on permissionlessly understanding blockchain headers, such as SPV clients. Electron-cash wallet, for example, had to push a major release, and users were forced to upgrade. Some wallets like Bitcoin Wallet for Android was never updated and fell off the map, only to be succeeded in spirit years later by Selene Wallet.

Despite the cost, the proposal addressed a sufficiently urgent problem for BCH in a reasonable way, with no attractive alternative. It had a significant cost, but the cost was far outweighed by consequences of inaction. Along with the rest of the ecosystem, General Protocols decided to support the proposal.

Introspection opcodes (2022)

Context: https://gitlab.com/GeneralProtocols/research/chips/-/blob/master/CHIP-2021-02-Add-Native-Introspection-Opcodes.md

Introspection was proposed and locked in during interesting times. SmartBCH, a sidechain attempt to attach Ethereum Virtual Machine to BCH, was still growing; there were talks that BCH may not need additional smart contract capabilities as sBCH takes advantage of existing EVM tooling to obsolete any demand on the UTXO side of things. sBCH would later implode for a number of converging reasons, but it was not known at the time (2021).

General Protocols' primary product on BCH, BCHBull, would not see beta until the next year. But it was already apparent that emulating covenant capabilities via OP_CHECKDATASIG, central to BCHBull and possible future products, was extremely limiting and complex. Introspection was not only significantly cheaper and safer, but also opened the doors to complex products elsewhere like Moria and Fundme, which might not have been possible due to the high development and transaction cost associated with CDS covenant emulation.

While the expected cost to existing software and users was minimal as laid out in the CHIP, there was significant debate across Bitcoin forks about the optimal path to covenant capabilities. On a high level, fear of fungibility erosion was driven by the possibility of significant amounts of coins locked up in covenant chains forever. While most the BCH community did not take these philosophical concerns seriously, they nonetheless existed, and to this day still drives covenant-upgrade talks at BTC.

Due to abundance of caution for such a widely debated topic, General Protocols held back its support at first. Our product stood to benefit massively, but building confidence in the whole chain was more important - without which nothing could thrive including us.

Only after much further investigation along with the Cashscript crew did we find the costs miniscule, in the face of concrete, significant benefits. We could testify these first-hand due to our experience in designing smart contracts, and indeed it turned out most of the smart contracts after BCHBull would not have existed without Introspection. We decided to support the proposal.

PMv3 (2021)

Context: https://github.com/bitjson/pmv3/

PMv3 was a fascinating proposal. It was a radical departure from existing transaction format, it purports to do several different things at once. It was supposed to enable consensus-enforced tokens; it offered a path to full malleability protection; it enabled nifty contract setups that carry state from transaction to transaction. All of the benefits, at face value, were quite attractive.

Yet its problems were also many. Its token capability, a driving feature, was not very satisfying when examined in detail and design trials. It required significant development on top of existing software to take advantage of any of its benefits. As it was a big change in transaction format, possible breakage of existing setups would take time to be fully assessed.

Was the big cost worth the vague benefits? General Protocols wasn't sure, and did not support nor reject the proposal, only keeping up with its evaluation and alternatives. The proposal was eventually obsoleted by Cashtokens, delivering most of its promised benefits at a much lower cost.

Which proposals do we support? Which ones not?

As we hopefully showed above, General Protocols does not have a rigid formula or "roadmap" for proposals it support - instead, we evaluate benefits and costs for each proposal individually, with heavy emphasis on practical usecases over abstract "purity" or nice-to-haves.

If a proposal has concrete, urgent and demonstrably high benefits over its alternatives, even significant costs can be overcome to warrant our support. On the flipside, if the benefits are vague, speculative and require disproportionate investment to realize, it would have a much harder time justifying its costs. Our judgement heavily skews to the practical side, and we do keep a healthy appreciation of the status quo as a low-cost alternative to any proposal that cannot sufficiently justify its costs.

It is important to note that even superficially "low-cost" proposals may not get our support or even serious consideration, if the changes are invasive or radical enough over its expected benefits. Debates and serious considerations have inherent opportunity costs all on their own - not just for us, but throughout the whole ecosystem. Hours, days and weeks spent looking at and iterating questionable proposals are time that could be spent on more slam-dunk proposals as well as the usecases themselves, time that BCH developers are always running short of.

The Daily Market Flux - Your Complete Market Rundown (06/04/2025)

MarketFlux.io is a real-time financial news and analytics aggregator that gathers textual news from over 350 sources, providing instant insights and advanced filtering capabilities. With AI-powered sentiment analysis, historical search, and customizable filters, MarketFlux.io enables traders and investors to efficiently track market-moving events as they unfold. Visit Marketflux.io

Trump-Putin Call: No Immediate Peace, Ukraine Tensions Persist

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Explore more at MarketFlux

US Private Sector Hiring Slumps in May, ADP Data Shows Weakest Job Growth in Over a Year

ADP reports US private sector job growth slowed significantly in May, with only 37,000 jobs added versus 115,000 expected. This marks the lowest hiring level since March 2023, raising concerns about economic uncertainty and potential impacts of trade wars.

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South Korea's New President Lee Vows Economic Revival and Diplomatic Pragmatism

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Explore more at MarketFlux

Trump Dives into Crypto: Plans Branded Wallet and Trading App for Supporters

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Other News

Geopolitics Events

Trump and Putin's 75-Minute Call Addresses Ukraine Conflict, Iran Nuclear Issue, but Yields No Immediate Peace Prospects

President Donald Trump recently had a lengthy phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin, lasting approximately 75 minutes. The conversation covered several critical topics, including the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine, recent Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian airfields, and the Iranian nuclear issue. Trump described the call as "good" but emphasized that it would not lead to immediate peace in the region. According to Trump, Putin stated he would have to respond to Ukraine's recent attacks, indicating a potential escalation in tensions. The two leaders also discussed Iran's nuclear program, with Trump expressing concern that Iran is "slow-walking" its decision on a nuclear deal. Putin reportedly agreed to participate in discussions with Iran, which Trump believes could be helpful in resolving the issue. The call also touched on other international matters, including the conflict between India and Pakistan. While both leaders affirmed their readiness to maintain constant contact, Trump stressed the need for a definitive answer from Iran soon regarding its nuclear ambitions. The Kremlin confirmed the call took place, with Putin's aide Ushakov providing additional details on the topics discussed and the leaders' agreement to continue high-level contacts on Ukraine through various channels.

Trump Demands Rate Cut from "Unbelievable" Powell After Weak Jobs Report Shocks Markets

Former President Donald Trump has renewed his calls for Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell to lower interest rates following the release of weak ADP employment data. The private sector jobs report showed the slowest growth in over two years, prompting Trump to label Powell as "unbelievable" and insist it's "too late" but he "must now lower the rate." Trump's comments, made on his Truth Social platform, highlight the ongoing pressure on the Fed to adjust monetary policy amid signs of labor market weakness. He also pointed out that Europe has lowered rates nine times, suggesting the U.S. is lagging behind. This latest outburst from Trump comes as the Fed continues to maintain its stance of being in "no hurry" to cut rates, despite growing concerns about economic indicators and potential impacts of trade tensions.

Trump Praises Xi Personally, But Calls Him "Extremely Hard" to Deal With in Trade Talks

President Trump has expressed mixed feelings about China's President Xi Jinping in a recent statement. While affirming his personal fondness for Xi, Trump emphasized the Chinese leader's tough negotiation style, describing him as "very tough" and "extremely hard to make a deal with." This comment highlights the ongoing challenges in U.S.-China trade relations and suggests potential difficulties in reaching a trade agreement. Trump's remarks underscore the complex dynamics at play in the high-stakes negotiations between the world's two largest economies.

CBO: GOP Tax Plan to Add $2.4 Trillion to US Debt, Sparking Fiscal Concerns

The Congressional Budget Office projects that the House GOP tax bill will increase the US debt by $2.4 trillion through 2034. This nonpartisan analysis raises concerns about long-term fiscal sustainability and the impact on federal deficits.

China Eyes Massive Airbus Order, Potentially Snubbing Boeing

China is contemplating a significant order of approximately 300 Airbus jets, potentially dealing a blow to Boeing. This move could represent a major shift in China's aviation market preferences.

Trump Urges Scrapping Debt Limit to Avert Economic Disaster

Former President Trump calls for the complete elimination of the debt limit, arguing it's too dangerous to be wielded by politicians. He warns that its misuse could lead to catastrophic economic consequences, not just for the United States but potentially for the global economy. Trump emphasizes the need to prevent such a devastating scenario.

Taiwan and US Defy China's Silence, Commemorate Tiananmen Square Crackdown on 36th Anniversary

On the 36th anniversary of the Tiananmen Square crackdown, Taiwan's president and the US Secretary of State defied China's silence by commemorating the event. They vowed to uphold democratic values and condemned Beijing's censorship of the 1989 incident that killed hundreds, possibly thousands, of pro-democracy protesters. Taiwan's president emphasized the ongoing threat of authoritarianism and the importance of remembering history. Both leaders stressed the need for international cooperation in defending democracy and freedom, with Taiwan positioning itself at the forefront of this global effort. China continues to censor and avoid official commemoration of the event, maintaining silence over this dark chapter in its history.

US Denies Air Cover for European Forces in Post-War Ukraine

The US reportedly declines to provide air support for European forces in post-conflict Ukraine, potentially impacting regional security dynamics and NATO's strategic planning.

NATO Chief Rutte: U.S. Commitment Firm, Allies Must Boost Defense Spending

NATO's Rutte affirms U.S. commitment to NATO's mutual defense pact, but emphasizes the expectation for increased defense spending from Europe and Canada. Ukraine is invited to the NATO summit in The Hague, while there are no current plans for U.S. troop withdrawal from Europe.

Elon Musk Rallies Public to "Kill" Trump's Tax Bill, Warning of Potential Bankruptcy for America

Elon Musk has launched a public campaign against Donald Trump's proposed tax bill, urging Americans to contact their representatives and demand they "kill the bill." Musk argues that the legislation is a "disgusting abomination" that would "bankrupt America," escalating his criticism of the former president's signature tax plan.

China Seeks French Support to Ease EU Trade Tensions Amid US Rift

China's Commerce Minister met with France's Trade Minister, urging France to help resolve trade disputes between China and the EU. Beijing emphasized the importance of dialogue in addressing bilateral trade issues, seeking to strengthen ties with Europe amid ongoing tensions with the US.

Zelenskiy Proposes Ceasefire, Seeks Putin Meeting Amid Ongoing Ukraine-Russia Conflict

Ukrainian President Zelenskiy has proposed a ceasefire until a leaders' meeting with Russia can be arranged. He expressed readiness to meet Putin even without a ceasefire and dismissed Russian demands as an ultimatum. A prisoner of war exchange is planned for the weekend, following limited progress in Istanbul peace talks. Meanwhile, Germany's defense minister announced efforts to secure more air defense systems for Ukraine.

Putin Doubts Ukraine Peace Talks, Cites Recent Attacks as Obstacle

Putin expresses skepticism about potential summit with Ukraine and ceasefire, citing recent attacks. He accuses Ukraine of "terrorist" railway blasts, undermining peace efforts amid ongoing conflict.

U.S. Downgrades Ukraine's Drone Strike Impact, Citing Fewer Russian Planes Hit

U.S. officials assess that Ukraine's recent drone attack destroyed up to 20 Russian warplanes, fewer than Kyiv's estimates. The strike, targeting nuclear-capable bombers, is deemed significant but may complicate peace talks. The attack highlights escalating tensions in the ongoing conflict.

Macro Events

Bank of Canada Holds Rates Steady as U.S. Job Market Shows Signs of Cooling

The Bank of Canada is expected to maintain interest rates at 2.75% amid mixed economic signals. While core inflation remains high and Q1 GDP exceeded forecasts, rising unemployment and weak consumption may lead to future rate cuts. Meanwhile, the U.S. job market shows signs of slowing, with ADP reporting only 37,000 private-sector jobs added in May, far below the expected 115,000. This marks the lowest hiring level since March 2023 and suggests a potential halt in job market growth. The disappointing ADP figures have raised concerns about the impact of trade wars on employment, with markets now closely watching Friday's BLS report for further insights. Globally, economic uncertainties persist, with ongoing trade tensions and varied economic indicators across different countries.

Eurozone Economic Growth Stalls as Services Sector Stumbles, UK and Italy Show Resilience

The Eurozone's economic landscape in May 2025 showed mixed signals, with the composite PMI edging up to 50.2, surpassing forecasts. However, the services sector dipped below 50 for the first time since November, indicating contraction. Italy stood out with a robust services PMI of 53.2 and improved business expectations. The UK saw a rebound in services to 50.9 as U.S. tariff concerns eased. Germany's services sector hit a 30-month low at 47.1, dragging down the country's broader economic outlook. France's services PMI improved to 48.9, but business confidence plummeted to a five-year low.

Trump Demands Rate Cut from "Unbelievable" Powell After Weak Jobs Report Shocks Markets

US Services Sector Expands, Brazil's Contracts in May PMI Data

US services PMI rises to 53.7 in May, beating expectations. Composite PMI also increases to 53. Meanwhile, Brazil's services and composite PMIs show slight changes but remain below 50, indicating contraction.

CBO: Trump's Tariffs Could Slash $2.8 Trillion from Deficit, but May Hamper Economic Growth

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projects that President Trump's tariffs, if maintained for a decade, could reduce U.S. budget deficits by $2.8 trillion. This estimate accounts for potential economic impacts. The CBO, a nonpartisan entity, shared these findings in a letter to Democrats. However, the report also warns that the tariffs may lead to a decrease in overall U.S. economic output.

CBO: Trump Tariffs to Slash Deficit by $2.8T, but at Cost of Economic Growth

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projects that President Trump's tariffs, if maintained for a decade, could reduce U.S. budget deficits by $2.8 trillion. However, this comes with economic trade-offs. The CBO anticipates a decrease in economic output, a 0.6% hit to GDP, and a 0.9% increase in inflation by 2026. Despite potential court challenges, the tariffs are expected to have a significant fiscal impact, outweighing the deficit increase from Trump's tax and spending bill.

Fed's Beige Book Shows Slight Economic Decline and Mixed Outlook Across Districts

The Federal Reserve's Beige Book reveals a slight decline in economic activity across most districts, with mixed outlooks. Six districts reported declines, three saw no change, and three experienced slight growth. Price increases were moderate, but expectations of faster cost and price rises were widespread. The report, prepared by the St. Louis Fed, highlights the varied economic landscape across the country.

Fed Removes Wells Fargo's Asset Cap, Signaling End to Growth Restrictions

The Federal Reserve has lifted Wells Fargo's $2 trillion asset cap, imposed in 2018 due to a fake-accounts scandal. This decision allows the bank to grow again, marking a significant milestone. CEO Charles Scharf welcomed the news, and Wells Fargo's stock rose in response.

Sweden and India Lead Services Sector Growth as APAC PMIs Show Mixed Results

Sweden's services PMI rose to 50.8 in May, surpassing expectations. Across APAC, PMIs showed mixed results, with notable growth in India's services sector at 58.8. Despite a slight dip from April, India's services PMI remained strong, driven by export orders and record hiring. Japan's services PMI also improved to 51.0. These figures indicate economic resilience in various regions, though rising costs may pose challenges for central banks.

Trump's 50% Steel and Aluminum Tariffs Implemented, Raising Price Concerns

Trump's 50% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports have taken effect, potentially impacting prices of various products. The move aims to protect domestic industries but may shift trade patterns and increase costs for consumers.

Housing Market Uncertainty Persists Amid Interest Rate Decision and Stagnant Listings

The housing market remains uncertain as the Bank of Canada's interest rate decision looms. Active home listings have stagnated in key states, with North Dakota, New York, and West Virginia experiencing weak gains or declines. Supply tightness persists in these markets. Meanwhile, real estate stocks like Alexandria Real Estate and IRSA are attracting investor attention as potential refuges. The US home purchase applications gauge has declined to a five-week low, reflecting ongoing challenges in the housing sector.

U.S. Services Sector Shrinks Unexpectedly as Tariff Pressures Mount

U.S. services sector activity unexpectedly contracted in May, with the ISM services PMI falling to 49.9, signaling the first contraction in nearly a year. This decline, coupled with reduced hiring, suggests mounting economic pressure from tariffs. New orders dropped significantly, while input prices surged to a 1.5-year high. The data points to increasing uncertainty and inflation concerns for businesses, raising stagflation worries amid supply bottlenecks and tariff-driven cost increases.

US Services PMI Surprises, Trade War Impacts Linger: Markets Await Key Events

US services PMI unexpectedly rose to 53.7 in May, surpassing forecasts of 52.3. However, new orders contracted to 46.4, below expectations. The trade war between the US and China continues to impact markets, with Apple and Alibaba's AI rollout in China delayed. Markets remain cautiously optimistic but with reduced liquidity as key events approach.

Canadian Services Sector Shows Signs of Improvement in May

Canada's services PMI rose to 45.6 in May, a 3-month high, indicating slower contraction. Business optimism improved despite ongoing challenges, with jobs and price pressures showing signs of recovery.

US to Impose Aircraft Tariffs by Month-End, Says Commerce Secretary Lutnick

Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick announced plans to set aircraft tariffs by month-end, following completion of a 232 analysis on aircraft parts. This decision will impact the aviation industry and international trade relations.

Canada Weighs Options, Including Counter-Tariffs, in Response to U.S. Trade Measures

Canada's Industry Minister is carefully considering various responses to recent U.S. tariffs, indicating that more time is needed to evaluate options. The minister emphasized that additional counter-tariffs remain a possibility, highlighting the ongoing trade tensions between the two nations and Canada's commitment to protecting its economic interests.

Technology Events

Amazon Bets Big on AI: $10 Billion Investment in North Carolina to Fuel Cloud and AI Innovation

Amazon is making a massive $10 billion investment in North Carolina to expand its cloud computing infrastructure and advance AI innovation. This ambitious project will create at least 500 new jobs and significantly boost Amazon Web Services' capacity to meet the surging demand for generative AI. The investment is part of Amazon's larger $100 billion capital expenditure plan for the year, highlighting the tech giant's commitment to AI development. This move brings Amazon's total investment in North Carolina to $22 billion since 2010, further solidifying the state's position as a tech hub.

Reddit Sues AI Firm Anthropic Over Alleged Unauthorized Data Use

Reddit is taking legal action against AI startup Anthropic, alleging unauthorized use of user data and breach of contract. The lawsuit claims Anthropic exploited Reddit's content without proper licensing, raising concerns about data rights and AI training practices.

NVIDIA's Blackwell Superchips Power Record-Breaking AI Performance in Latest MLPerf Results

CoreWeave, NVIDIA, and IBM have set new benchmarks in AI performance with record-breaking MLPerf results using NVIDIA's GB200 Grace Blackwell superchips. This achievement showcases significant advancements in AI training efficiency, with Blackwell chips demonstrating the ability to train large language models like Meta's 405B Llama over twice as fast as previous generations. The results highlight the growing demand for AI acceleration in data centers and NVIDIA's continued dominance in the AI hardware market.

U.S. Revises CHIPS Act Grants, Pushes for Domestic AI Dominance

Commerce Secretary Lutnick announces renegotiation of CHIPS Act grants, citing "overly generous" awards. He emphasizes keeping over 50% of global AI compute capacity in the U.S., aiming to reduce costs while maintaining technological leadership.

Microsoft's Free AI Cybersecurity Initiative Shields European Governments

Microsoft launches a free AI-powered cybersecurity program for European governments to combat rising state-backed cyber threats, aiming to enhance intelligence-sharing and protect critical infrastructure.

Microsoft Reshuffles Leadership: LinkedIn CEO to Lead Office and AI Initiatives

LinkedIn CEO Ryan Roslansky will oversee Microsoft Office and AI Copilot teams while retaining his current role. This executive reshuffle aims to accelerate AI integration across Microsoft's products, aligning key divisions under Windows chief Rajesh Jha.

Meta Courts Hollywood Giants for Exclusive Content on New Premium VR Headset

Meta Platforms is reportedly in talks with major entertainment companies like Disney and A24 to fund exclusive content for its upcoming premium virtual-reality headset. Codenamed "Loma," the device is set to launch in 2026 with a price tag under $1,000. This strategic move aims to compete with Apple's Vision Pro by offering immersive experiences in the VR space.

OpenAI Hits 3M Business Users, Expands Workplace Offerings

OpenAI reaches milestone of 3 million paying business users and introduces new workplace features, signaling growth in AI adoption for professional applications.

Tesla's China Sales Slump 15% in May, BYD Surges Ahead in Competitive EV Market

Tesla's China-made EV sales dropped 15% year-over-year in May, delivering 61,662 vehicles. Despite a slight monthly increase, Tesla lagged behind competitor BYD, which saw a 14.1% rise in sales. The overall Chinese NEV market grew 38% annually, highlighting Tesla's challenges in this key market amid fierce competition.

Oil And Gas Events

EIA Report Shows Surprising Crude Inventory Drop, but Fuel Stock Builds Muddy Oil Market Outlook

The latest EIA report reveals a significant drop in US crude oil inventories, surpassing market expectations. Crude stocks fell by 4.304 million barrels, compared to the forecasted 3.128 million barrel decrease. This unexpected decline suggests a bullish trend for crude prices. However, the report also showed substantial increases in gasoline and distillate inventories, which could potentially offset the positive impact on oil prices. Gasoline stocks rose by 5.219 million barrels, while distillate inventories increased by 4.230 million barrels, both exceeding predictions. Refinery utilization rates climbed by 3.2%, indicating increased production activity. The conflicting data presents a mixed picture for the oil market, with crude inventories supporting higher prices while growing fuel stocks may exert downward pressure. Traders are now weighing these factors against broader geopolitical tensions and OPEC's supply decisions.

Saudi Arabia Tweaks Global Oil Prices Amid OPEC+ Output Boost

Saudi Arabia adjusts oil prices for July, cutting rates for Asian buyers while raising them for Europe and the US. This move follows OPEC+'s decision to continue increasing output. Aramco set the Arab Light crude OSP to Asia at +$1.2/bbl vs Oman/Dubai average, to NW Europe at +$3.25/bbl vs ICE Brent, and to the US at +$3.5/bbl vs ASCI.

Russian Oil Revenue Plummets Amid Global Price Slump and OPEC+ Production Hike

Russian oil revenue has fallen to a two-year low as global crude prices decline, impacting the country's state budget. Banks are revising their 2025 oil price forecasts below $60 per barrel, citing increased OPEC+ production and flat demand growth. Oil prices are currently caught between conflicting factors, including geopolitical tensions, OPEC+'s supply surge, and Canada's wildfires affecting production. The market is also closely watching China's control of critical mineral exports. Despite these challenges, crude oil futures have rallied, with OPEC+ plans offsetting Canadian supply disruptions. The oil market remains in a delicate balance as various economic indicators and global events continue to influence prices.

TotalEnergies Expands Presence in Brazil's Offshore Oil Sector

TotalEnergies increases its stake in Brazil's Lapa offshore oil field through an asset swap with Shell, strengthening its position in the country's energy sector. This move aligns with the company's expansion strategy in South America.

Saudis Push for Bigger OPEC+ Output Hikes to Boost Market Share

Saudi Arabia seeks larger OPEC+ production increases to gain market share, potentially impacting global oil supply and prices.

Fixed Income And Interest Rates Events

Treasury Yields Plummet on Weak Economic Data, Fueling Rate Cut Speculation

Treasury yields tumbled to their lowest levels since May, driven by weak economic data, particularly in the labor and service sectors. This has strengthened expectations for potential rate cuts by the Fed. Meanwhile, stocks struggled to maintain small gains as investors weighed the impact of soft economic indicators and ongoing U.S.-China trade talks against cautious optimism in the markets.

Bond Market Buzzes as Stocks Waver on Employment Data; Equity Risk Premium Nears Historic Lows

The bond market sees significant activity with ZF Friedrichshafen's EUR benchmark 5-year senior bond attracting over €4bn in orders. S&P 500 futures erase gains after disappointing ADP employment data, causing Treasury yields to rise. The equity risk premium approaches 23-year lows, though stocks remain more attractive than Treasuries. Municipal bond funds release Q1 2025 commentaries.

BOJ Mulls Easing Bond Tapering Pace, Ueda Confirms Review

The Bank of Japan is reportedly considering slowing the pace of bond tapering next year. Governor Ueda confirmed plans to review taper strategies at the upcoming policy meeting, taking market participants' opinions into account.

Housing Market Uncertainty Persists Amid Interest Rate Decision and Stagnant Listings

Earnings Events

Dollar Tree's Mixed Signals: Strong Q1, but Q2 Profit Warning Spooks Investors

Dollar Tree reported strong Q1 earnings, beating expectations and raising annual profit forecasts. However, the company warned of a potential significant drop in Q2 profits, causing shares to decline.

CrowdStrike Stock Plunges on Weak Forecast, Outage Aftermath Despite Strong Q1 Performance

CrowdStrike's shares tumbled after its Q2 revenue forecast fell short of expectations, impacted by lingering effects from customer incentives following a 2024 outage. Despite solid Q1 results and a 43% year-to-date surge, the cybersecurity firm's outlook and rich valuation are weighing on investor sentiment, leading to mixed analyst reactions.

Crypto Events

JPMorgan Embraces Crypto ETFs with New Financing Options, Defying CEO's Skepticism

JPMorgan is set to introduce financing options allowing clients to borrow against their crypto ETF holdings, including Bitcoin and Ethereum trackers. This move signals growing institutional trust in regulated crypto products, despite CEO Jamie Dimon's anti-crypto stance.

Crypto Market Divergence: Bitcoin Stalls, Ethereum Rises, and XRP Teeters on Breakout Edge

Bitcoin's price stagnates despite reclaiming ground, while Ethereum leads capital rotation. XRP shows mixed signals at $2.25, with a potential breakout brewing. Key Bitcoin holders increase sharply, but ETF sees $1.2B exit in 3 days. The Bitcoin 2025 Conference highlights mainstream adoption, as the crypto market experiences diverse trends.

Bitcoin 2025 Conference Highlights Mainstream Adoption as Price Hovers at $105,000

The Bitcoin 2025 Conference showcased the cryptocurrency's mainstream adoption, with its price hovering around $105,000. Despite fluctuations, key BTC holders increased significantly. BTCPay Server emerged as crucial for Bitcoin commerce. Dogecoin showed bullish signals, while Trump and Powell's actions impacted the market. Ethereum consolidated against BTC, with altseason hopes rising. Bitcoin ETFs saw significant outflows, and Kraken experienced a massive BTC transaction.

Interest Rate Shifts and Market Volatility: From Clorox to Bitcoin, Financial Landscape in Flux

Interest rates are a hot topic in financial news today. Clorox needs lower rates to be attractive, while HELOC and high-yield savings rates are trending down. The Bank of Japan is considering slowing bond tapering, impacting global markets. BlackRock notes a term premium in US bonds, and MicroStrategy's Bitcoin strategy remains high-risk, high-reward. ZIM Integrated Shipping offers a 17% yield, and Lord Abbett's High Income Municipal Bond Fund released its Q1 2025 commentary. The MOVE index reveals a close link between stock and bond market anxiety.

Trump's Truth Social Ventures into Crypto, Files for Bitcoin ETF

Trump's social media company, Truth Social, is making waves in the crypto market by filing for a spot Bitcoin ETF. This bold move signals the firm's expansion into digital assets, despite mixed reactions and potential family confusion over crypto ventures.

XRP Price Consolidates at $2.25 Amid Mixed Signals and Bullish Predictions

XRP's price is consolidating around $2.25, with mixed signals from technical indicators. Analysts are debating potential breakouts and long-term price targets of $3, $5, and $10. Meanwhile, Ripple has denied rumors of an $11 billion Circle acquisition. Increased XRP activity suggests a possible rally, but long-term resistance remains a challenge.

Treasury Yields Climb as Bitcoin Bet Looms Large for MicroStrategy

U.S. 30-year Treasury yields are nearing 5% again, with BlackRock noting an emerging term premium in bonds. Meanwhile, MicroStrategy's Bitcoin strategy presents high risk and potential reward, with varying 2030 NAV projections. High-yield savings accounts offer up to 4.3% APY.

Bitcoin ETFs Bounce Back with $375M Inflow, Signaling Renewed Institutional Confidence

Bitcoin ETFs rebounded with a $375 million inflow on June 3, ending a three-day losing streak. ARK Invest's ARKB led with $139.9 million, followed by Fidelity's FBTC at $136.8 million. Ethereum ETFs also continued their positive streak for the 12th consecutive day, adding 42,010 ETH worth $110 million. This resurgence in institutional interest signals renewed confidence in the crypto market, potentially building bullish momentum.

Corporate Actions Events

Mexico Set to Greenlight Nippon Steel's $14.9B U.S. Steel Takeover

Mexico's antitrust regulator Cofece is poised to renew approval for Nippon Steel's $14.9 billion acquisition of U.S. Steel. This reauthorization, expected as soon as Thursday, clears a crucial hurdle for the cross-border merger after the previous approval expired, keeping the deal on track.

Chart Industries and Flowserve to Unite in $19 Billion Merger

Chart Industries and Flowserve are set to merge in a $19 billion all-stock deal, creating a combined entity worth approximately $19 billion. The announcement is expected soon.

Circle's IPO Poised for Success: Demand Surges 25x Above Available Shares

Circle's IPO is expected to price above the marketed range due to overwhelming demand, with orders exceeding 25 times the available shares. This stablecoin issuer's upsized deal has generated significant investor interest, reflecting strong market enthusiasm for the offering.

Rivian Secures $1.25B in Green Bonds to Refinance 2026 Notes

Rivian Automotive has priced a $1.25 billion green bond offering. The proceeds will be used to refinance outstanding senior secured notes due in 2026, demonstrating the company's commitment to sustainable financing.

Metals Events

Wildfires Force Hudbay Minerals to Halt Manitoba Operations

Hudbay Minerals suspends operations in Northern Manitoba due to ongoing wildfires, impacting their Snow Lake mining activities.

Mexico Threatens Measured Response to U.S. Steel Tariffs, Seeks Agreement by Next Week

Mexico's President Sheinbaum has condemned the U.S. announcement to raise steel and aluminum tariffs as "unfair." The Mexican government is threatening to introduce countermeasures if no agreement is reached by next week. However, Sheinbaum emphasized that Mexico's response won't be "an eye for an eye." Ongoing talks aim to defend Mexican jobs without mirroring U.S. retaliation, but Mexico doesn't rule out imposing tariffs on U.S. steel. The situation is escalating trade pressure between the two nations.

Trump's 50% Steel and Aluminum Tariffs Implemented, Raising Price Concerns

Real Estate Events

Housing Market Uncertainty Persists Amid Interest Rate Decision and Stagnant Listings

Blackstone Snaps Up UK's Warehouse REIT in £470M Deal, Signaling Continued Interest in Undervalued British Assets

Blackstone has acquired UK's Warehouse REIT for £470 million ($635.35 million), following a revised bid due to asset valuation concerns. This deal reflects a trend of U.S. firms targeting undervalued UK assets amid a weak economic environment.

Mortgage Applications Plunge Despite Rate Dip

US mortgage applications fell 3.9% last week, despite a slight decrease in 30-year mortgage rates to 6.92% from 6.98%. The decline was more significant than the previous week's 1.2% drop.

Analyst Ratings Events

Needham Downgrades Apple to Hold, Citing Valuation and Competition Worries

Needham downgrades Apple stock to Hold from Buy, citing earnings risks, increased competition, and valuation concerns.

Explore more at MarketFlux

Digital Nomad Taxes: Mastering the Nomadic Lifestyle Without Getting Burned

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You think you're living the dream—working remotely while sipping coffee on a beach in Bali, but here's the catch: your income isn't invisible to governments. Every digital nomad who dreams of freedom must face one harsh truth: taxes don’t stop just because you do.

The myth of tax-free travel is seductive. It paints a picture of endless horizons and zero responsibilities. But the reality is far more complex. Governments are smart. They track not just where you live, but how long you stay, what kind of work you do, and whether you’ve declared it. And they’re getting better at it every day.

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Let’s cut through the noise. Tax residency isn’t just about having a house in a country. It’s about where you spend most of your time, where your bank accounts are, and even where your children attend school. If you cross that invisible line—often 183 days a year—you might suddenly find yourself liable for local taxes.

But it doesn’t end there. Countries have different rules. Some offer favorable treatment to remote workers, others slap you with penalties. You can’t treat them all the same. You need a strategy. And that starts with understanding the basics.

Double taxation agreements exist to prevent you from being taxed twice on the same income. Sounds great, right? But these treaties are written in legalese, and their benefits often depend on how you structure your finances. One wrong move and you could end up paying more than if you’d stayed home.

DTAAs aren’t a magic shield. They require careful planning. For example, some countries only exempt income if you meet specific criteria like holding a certain type of visa or not receiving public services. You can’t assume your income is automatically protected.

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Freelancers, independent contractors, and gig workers face unique challenges. Unlike traditional employees, you don’t have a payroll department handling your taxes. You invoice clients, and that’s when the clock starts ticking. Each payment is a potential taxable event, and if you’re not tracking it, you’re risking everything.

Invoicing without proper documentation is like playing Russian roulette with your finances. You need records, receipts, and a clear paper trail. Otherwise, you’ll be scrambling during tax season trying to piece together where your money came from—and where it should go next.

Cryptocurrency adds another layer of complexity. If you earned Bitcoin in Dubai and sold it in Thailand, which country’s tax laws apply? The answer isn’t always clear. Staking rewards, mining profits, and even crypto tips count as taxable income in many jurisdictions.

This frontier is still evolving, but one thing is certain: governments are watching. If you’re using crypto to mask income or avoid reporting, you’re playing a dangerous game. Transparency is key—even if it feels counterintuitive.

Social security contributions are another minefield. If you freelance, you’re likely responsible for both the employer and employee portions of social security taxes. In the US, this means self-employment taxes (SECA), which can take a hefty chunk out of your earnings.

And let’s not forget, if you work in a foreign country, you may also be required to pay into their social security system. That’s where reciprocity agreements come in—but again, they’re not universal and often have strict conditions.

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The IRS hasn’t been sitting idle either. With the rise of remote work, they’ve ramped up enforcement against offshore tax evasion. Programs like FATCA (Foreign Account Tax Compliance Act) require financial institutions to report accounts held by US citizens abroad. If you’re hiding assets, the IRS will find them.

Expatriate tax exclusions exist, but they come with strings attached. You must meet strict requirements, including physical presence and income thresholds. Even then, you might still owe taxes on certain types of income. This is not the wild west—it’s a carefully policed territory.

Self-employment taxes are the silent drain on your earnings. Whether you file as an LLC, sole proprietor, or something else, you’re on the hook for quarterly payments. Failing to do so can lead to penalties, interest, and even legal action.

Deducting expenses is part of the game, but it requires discipline. From laptops to Wi-Fi bills, you need to track every business expense. Otherwise, you’re leaving money on the table—or worse, overpaying.

Tax evasion is a criminal offense, but tax optimization is a legitimate strategy. The line between the two is razor-thin. What looks like a clever loophole to you could be seen as fraud to the authorities. Proceed with caution.

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Health insurance is another area where digital nomads stumble. Many rely on domestic health plans, but those may not cover you overseas. Others try to use HSAs (Health Savings Accounts) as a tax-advantaged way to fund coverage. Either way, you need to understand the implications.

Passive income—rental income, dividends, interest—is often overlooked. If you own property in a foreign country or earn investment income while traveling, you must declare it. Ignoring these sources can trigger audits and costly corrections.

Estate planning is rarely discussed in the context of digital nomadism, but it’s essential. If you die without a will, your assets could be distributed according to the laws of the last country you lived in. That’s not ideal. Setting up trusts or other structures ensures your wishes are honored.

Tax professionals are worth their weight in gold. They help you navigate the maze of international tax law, identify deductions, and avoid common pitfalls. Don’t try to handle it alone unless you enjoy surprises.

Software solutions are emerging to simplify the process. Platforms tailored for remote workers automate tax filing, track expenses, and ensure compliance across multiple jurisdictions. These tools are becoming indispensable for serious digital nomads.

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Offshore bank accounts may seem like a way to protect your privacy, but they come with risks. Secret accounts can attract attention from regulators. The cost of secrecy is high, and it often outweighs the benefits.

If you’re audited, it’s not a matter of “if,” but “when.” Red flags include inconsistent income reporting, unexplained cash flows, and frequent changes in residency. Being prepared is the only defense.

The future of taxation for digital nomads is uncertain but inevitable. As remote work becomes the norm, governments are pushing for global standards. Tech-driven systems are making it easier to track and collect taxes, regardless of where you live.

Staying compliant doesn’t have to feel like climbing Everest. With the right tools and strategies, you can manage your taxes effectively without losing your mind. Start by building a system that works for your lifestyle and income sources.

You’re not just chasing sunsets and surfboards anymore. You’re navigating a complex web of tax laws, treaties, and obligations. The question isn’t whether you should pay taxes—it’s how to do it smartly.

✨ Don’t wait for problems to arise—act now: Start Diagnostic NOW

So, are digital nomads paying taxes? Absolutely. The challenge is doing so correctly. With the right knowledge and tools, you can keep more of what you earn while staying on the right side of the law.

The road ahead is paved with opportunity, but it’s also lined with traps. Don’t let taxes derail your journey. Take control today and make informed decisions tomorrow.

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Tuesday, June 3, 2025

How to Get an IPTV Subscription – Nitro IPTV

I’ve been using Nitro IPTV for a few months now, and I wanted to share how easy it is to get set up if you’re looking for a reliable, high-quality IPTV service. If you’ve ever wondered how to get an IPTV subscription, here’s a quick rundown of the steps I followed—and why Nitro IPTV might be exactly what you need.

Visit the Nitro IPTV Website

Head over to Nitro IPTV. You’ll land on their homepage, which clearly lays out all the subscription plans, pricing, and key features.

Choose Your Plan

Nitro IPTV offers multiple packages to fit different budgets and viewing habits:

Basic Plan: Access to 1,000+ live channels (HD/SD), covering major sports, news, and entertainment networks.

Premium Plan: 2,500+ channels (HD/Full HD/4K), plus VOD (video-on-demand) libraries containing recent movies, series, and documentaries.

Ultimate Plan: Everything in Premium, plus multi-screen support (use on up to 4 devices simultaneously) and priority 24/7 customer support.

Read through the plan comparison, then click “Subscribe Now” under the package that suits you best.

Complete Payment

Nitro IPTV accepts several payment methods:

Credit/Debit Cards (Visa, MasterCard)

PayPal

Cryptocurrency (Bitcoin, Ethereum)

Gift Cards (selected retailers)

Choose your preferred method, enter the details, and confirm. Payments are processed securely, and you’ll receive a confirmation email within minutes.

Receive Your Login Credentials

Once your payment clears (usually instantly), Nitro IPTV will send you:

Username & Password

Setup Guide (template instructions for popular apps like VLC, Perfect Player, Kodi, and Smart TV apps)

Start Watching

Open your chosen IPTV player (e.g., Kodi, Smart IPTV on Samsung/LG TVs, TiviMate on Android), add the Nitro IPTV playlist or URL, and voilà—channels load right away. You’ll have access to:

Live sports (NFL, NBA, Premier League, etc.)

News channels (CNN, BBC, Al Jazeera, etc.)

International entertainment (European, Asian, Arab, and North American stations)

VOD sections with recent movies, series, and kids’ content

Troubleshooting & Support

If you run into any hiccups—buffering issues, login errors, or channel lists not updating—Nitro IPTV has:

24/7 Live Chat (accessible from their website)

Email Support ([support@nitro-iptv.com](mailto:support@nitro-iptv.com))

Step-by-Step FAQ on their site

They’re quick to respond and often fix most issues within minutes.

Why Nitro IPTV?

Stability: Virtually zero buffering, even during big live sports events.

Global Servers: Multiple server locations to ensure minimal latency no matter where you are.

Affordable Pricing: Competitive plans

Ready to try it? Check out https://nitro-iptv.com/ and grab your plan today. If you’ve already been using Nitro IPTV, share your experience below—what features do you love most? Any tips or shortcuts that helped you set up? Let’s help everyone get streaming smoothly!

Enjoy your new IPTV subscription!

The Daily Market Flux - Your Complete Market Rundown (06/03/2025)

Fed Officials Caution: Tariffs May Spark Inflation Surge and Economic Slowdown

Fed officials Goolsbee and Cook warn that tariffs could quickly boost inflation and potentially lead to stagflation. They emphasize the need to monitor the situation closely, as the full economic impact may take time to materialize in the data.

Explore more at MarketFlux

Trump to Sign Order Doubling Steel and Aluminum Tariffs, Sparking Trade War Concerns

President Trump is set to sign an executive order doubling steel and aluminum tariffs from 25% to 50%. This move, announced by White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt, has already impacted markets, causing price surges and drops in foreign steel stocks.

Explore more at MarketFlux

OECD Slashes Global Growth Outlook as Trump's Trade War Bites

The OECD has cut global growth forecasts, citing Trump's trade war as a major factor. US growth projections for 2025 have been slashed to 1.6%, down from 2.2%, with tariffs, weak investment, and policy uncertainty impacting economies worldwide.

Explore more at MarketFlux

Bitcoin Holds $105K as Ethereum Surges; Altcoin Season on the Horizon

Bitcoin reclaims $105K amid market volatility, with ETFs seeing record inflows. Ethereum outperforms, nearing $2,850. Altcoin season looms as crypto adoption grows, despite regulatory concerns and mixed technical indicators for Bitcoin.

Explore more at MarketFlux

Wall Street Rally Continues: Nasdaq Surges, Nvidia Leads Tech Gains

Wall Street gains momentum with Nasdaq up 1% and S&P 500 approaching 6,000. Nvidia leads chip stocks higher, while investors eye options activity in various companies. Market sentiment remains positive despite some concerns.

Explore more at MarketFlux

Company News

Dollar General Corporation (DG)

Performance Overview

1D Change: 15.94%

5D Change: 11.52%

News Volume: 138

Unusual Volume Factor: 26x

Dollar General Surges on Stellar Earnings, Raises Outlook Despite Tariff Concerns

Dollar General Corporation has made headlines with its impressive first-quarter earnings report for 2025, surpassing Wall Street expectations and prompting a significant boost in its stock price. The discount retailer reported adjusted earnings per share of $1.78, beating estimates of $1.47, and revenue of $10.44 billion, exceeding the projected $10.28 billion. Same-store sales growth of 2.4% also outperformed expectations.

Full coverage of $DG on MarketFlux.io

Constellation Energy Corporation (CEG)

Performance Overview

1D Change: -0.02%

5D Change: 1.49%

News Volume: 90

Unusual Volume Factor: 13x

Meta Strikes Landmark Nuclear Power Deal with Constellation Energy, Boosting AI Sustainability and Energy Stocks

In a groundbreaking move, Meta Platforms has announced a 20-year agreement to purchase nuclear power from Constellation Energy, marking a significant shift towards sustainable energy sources for its data centers. The deal, which begins in mid-2027, involves power generation from an operating nuclear plant in Illinois and has sent Constellation Energy's stock soaring to an all-time high.

Full coverage of $CEG on MarketFlux.io

Signet Jewelers Limited (SIG)

Performance Overview

1D Change: 12.61%

5D Change: 13.38%

News Volume: 38

Unusual Volume Factor: 16x

Signet Jewelers Sparkles with Earnings Beat and Raised Guidance, Stock Soars

Signet Jewelers Limited (SIG) made headlines with its impressive first-quarter fiscal 2026 results, causing its stock to surge. The company reported non-GAAP earnings per share of $1.18, beating estimates by $0.14, and revenue of $1.54 billion, surpassing expectations by $20 million. This strong performance was driven by robust sales across its Kay, Zales, and Jared brands, leading to sequential comparable sales growth and margin expansion.

Full coverage of $SIG on MarketFlux.io

Other News

Macro Events

Fed Officials Warn of Tariff-Induced Inflation Risks, Urge Cautious Monitoring of Economic Impact

Federal Reserve officials Austan Goolsbee and Lisa Cook have expressed concerns about the potential impact of tariffs on the U.S. economy. Goolsbee, from the Chicago Fed, warned that the effects of tariffs on prices could be seen within a month, potentially spiraling up inflation rates in an escalating trade war. However, he emphasized the need to wait and see if tariffs will have a big or small inflation impact, noting that a tariff-related economic slowdown might not be immediately apparent in the data. Goolsbee also dismissed concerns about the dollar losing its status as the world's reserve currency as overstated. Meanwhile, Fed Governor Lisa Cook highlighted the risks of trade uncertainty, suggesting it could lead to higher inflation and slower economic activity, potentially creating a stagflation-like environment. Both officials stressed the importance of monitoring the situation closely, as the impact of tariffs on inflation and economic growth remains uncertain. They also noted that supply chain normalization has been helpful in the fight against inflation, but cautioned that any future supply shocks would be a significant concern.

China's Manufacturing Sector Shrinks as Trade War Takes Toll, Caixin PMI Shows

China's manufacturing sector contracted in May, with the Caixin PMI falling to 48.3, below expectations of 50.7. This marks the end of an 8-month growth streak, primarily due to U.S. tariffs impacting export demand and output. Jobs, new orders, and pricing declined, though firms remain optimistic about a potential trade rebound.

Turkey's Inflation Eases to 35.4% in May, Sparking Potential for Rate Cuts

Turkey's annual inflation rate dropped to 35.41% in May, the lowest since November 2021, falling below forecasts and April's 37.86%. The monthly inflation rate was 1.53%, lower than expected. This decline could pave the way for interest rate cuts, potentially boosting businesses. However, housing and education costs remain high, and end-2025 inflation is still projected above the central bank's target.

Fed's Logan Calls for Robust Policy Framework, Emphasizes Forward-Looking Approach to Inflation and Employment

Federal Reserve official Lorie Logan emphasized the need for a robust monetary policy framework adaptable to various scenarios. She stressed that the Fed should focus on achieving its 2% inflation target rather than compensating for past shortfalls. Logan highlighted the importance of monitoring employment levels above maximum sustainability, not just shortfalls. She cautioned against excessive rate cuts to boost employment and advocated for a clear, long-term strategy. Logan also suggested improving communication of key risks, uncertainties, and policy responses to the public.

Unexpected Job Openings Surge Complicates Fed's Rate Decision Amid Mixed Economic Signals

The latest U.S. economic data presents a mixed picture, complicating the Federal Reserve's decision-making. April job openings surprisingly rose to 7.391 million, surpassing estimates and indicating continued labor market tightness. This could challenge the Fed's rate path as they seek signs of cooling employment. Meanwhile, factory orders declined 3.7% in April, worse than expected. The upcoming May jobs report will be crucial in assessing labor market strength. Markets are now pricing in a 95.3% chance of the Fed keeping rates unchanged at the June FOMC meeting, but uncertainty remains about future policy moves.

BoJ Governor Ueda: US Tariffs May Briefly Slow Wage Growth, but Recovery Expected

Bank of Japan Governor Ueda warns that US tariffs could negatively impact Japanese firms' winter bonuses and upcoming wage negotiations. While wage growth may temporarily slow due to tariffs, Ueda expects it to rebound. He anticipates moderate consumption growth as real wages gradually improve, despite short-term challenges.

U.S. Pressures Vietnam to Slash Chinese Supply Chain Ties in High-Stakes Tariff Talks

The U.S. has presented Vietnam with extensive demands during tariff negotiations, primarily aimed at reducing Vietnam's reliance on Chinese supply chains. Washington is pushing for tighter controls and threatening 46% tariffs if Vietnam doesn't comply. These talks come as both U.S. and Chinese trade with Vietnam reach record levels.

Federal Reserve Removes Wells Fargo's Asset Cap, Signaling Progress in Bank's Reforms

The Federal Reserve has lifted the asset cap restriction on Wells Fargo, imposed in 2018 as part of an enforcement action. The bank has met all required conditions for the cap's removal, allowing for asset growth. However, other provisions from the 2018 action remain in place. This decision follows improvements in Wells Fargo's governance and risk management practices.

Aerospace Industry Sounds Alarm: New Tariffs Threaten Aviation Safety and Supply Chains

A U.S. aerospace industry group has warned the Commerce Department that proposed tariffs on airplanes and parts could jeopardize aviation safety and disrupt supply chains. Major players like Boeing, Airbus, and GE are urging a 180-day delay for further consultations, citing risks to the $75 billion trade surplus in the sector.

BLS to Issue Minor Corrections to April Jobs Report, Key Metrics Unchanged

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) announced upcoming corrections to the April jobs report data, due to issues with weights in the household survey sample. While many numbers will be adjusted, the impact is described as negligible, with major measures like the unemployment rate remaining unaffected.

Italy's Unemployment Rate Surprises with Drop to 5.9% in April

Italy's unemployment rate in April unexpectedly dropped to 5.9%, beating forecasts of 6.1% and improving from the previous month's 6.0%. This positive trend suggests a strengthening labor market in Italy.

Geopolitics Events

Elon Musk Lambasts "Massive, Outrageous" U.S. Spending Bill, Calling It a "Disgusting Abomination"

Elon Musk has unleashed a scathing critique of the recent U.S. spending bill, calling it a "massive, outrageous, pork-filled" piece of legislation. The tech billionaire expressed his frustration on social media, describing the bill as a "disgusting abomination" and shaming those who voted for it. Musk's comments mark a significant shift in his stance towards the Trump administration's fiscal policies, particularly the tax and spending package. His criticism aligns with concerns raised by fiscal conservatives about the bill's potential impact on the deficit. The White House has reportedly shrugged off Musk's remarks, while the controversy unfolds as the Senate aims to pass the measure before July 4.

Dutch Government Collapses as Far-Right Leader Wilders Exits Coalition Over Migration Dispute

Far-right leader Geert Wilders withdrew his Freedom Party from the Dutch coalition government over disagreements on migration policies. This move has led to the collapse of the four-party ruling alliance, triggering political uncertainty in the Netherlands. Further details on next steps are anticipated.

Kremlin Cautious on Ukraine Talks as U.S. Pushes for New Trade Deals Amid Global Economic Concerns

The Kremlin has been actively engaged in discussions surrounding the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, but cautions against expecting rapid progress or imminent decisions. While open to high-level contacts, including potential meetings with Trump and Zelenskiy, the Kremlin emphasizes the need for thorough preparation. Russia's stance, as articulated by Medvedev, focuses on achieving a swift victory rather than compromising on what they deem unrealistic conditions. Meanwhile, the U.S. is intensifying trade talks with various countries, including Vietnam and India, as the July 9 deadline approaches. The U.S. is pressing Vietnam to reduce its reliance on Chinese inputs or face significant tariffs, while negotiations with India aim to address market access and tariff reductions. The EU, however, claims it hasn't received Trump's demand for final trade offers, despite reports of a circulating draft letter. These developments occur against a backdrop of warnings from the OECD that Trump's combative trade policies are negatively impacting global economic growth, with the U.S. among the hardest hit.

Trump to Sign Order Doubling Steel and Aluminum Tariffs, Sparking Trade War Concerns

US Factory Orders Slump, Job Openings Surge in April's Economic Data

US economic data shows mixed signals. Durable goods orders fell 6.3%, while core orders rose 0.2%. Factory orders declined 3.7%, worse than expected. However, job openings increased to 7.391 million, surpassing forecasts. The Redbook index indicates slower retail sales growth at 4.9% year-over-year.

Trump and Xi Set for Crucial Friday Phone Call, White House Confirms

President Trump is scheduled to have a conversation with Chinese President Xi Jinping on Friday, according to White House sources. This high-level communication could impact US-China relations and related markets.

U.S. Offers Compromise in Iran Nuclear Talks, Allowing Limited Enrichment

The U.S. has proposed an interim measure in Iran nuclear negotiations, allowing limited uranium enrichment. This development could impact global markets, particularly gold and precious metals.

Ukraine's Daring Drone Strikes Deep in Russian Territory Escalate Conflict, Prompting Kremlin Investigation

Ukraine's recent drone strikes on Russian territory, including attacks on airfields housing nuclear-capable bombers and a key Crimean bridge, have intensified the conflict. These bold moves aim to pressure Moscow and change Putin's calculus. As Kyiv officials visit Washington seeking support, the Kremlin remains tight-lipped, confirming only that Putin was briefed in real-time and investigations are underway. The attacks, reaching as far as Siberia, have shaken up the conflict dynamics and raised questions about Russia's defensive capabilities.

U.S. Pressures Vietnam to Slash Chinese Supply Chain Ties in High-Stakes Tariff Talks

US-China Diplomacy: Ambassador Perdue Discusses Fentanyl and Trade with Foreign Minister

US Ambassador to China Perdue held talks with Foreign Minister Wang Yi, focusing on critical issues of fentanyl and trade relations between the two nations.

Trump to Participate in NATO Summit, White House Confirms

President Trump will attend the upcoming NATO Summit in The Hague, as confirmed by White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt. This announcement signals Trump's continued engagement with the alliance.

Kim Moon-soo Concedes: Lee Jae-myung Wins South Korean Presidential Race

South Korea's conservative presidential candidate Kim Moon-soo has conceded defeat to Lee Jae-myung in the election, as reported by live TV coverage.

White House Confirms Reminder Letters Sent to Trade Partners as Tariff Deadline Looms

The White House confirmed sending letters to trading partners, reminding them of an upcoming deadline for tariff negotiations. Press Secretary Leavitt authenticated the letter and emphasized the importance of the impending trade deadline.

Dutch PM Resigns, Sparks Potential Early Election

Dutch Prime Minister Dick Schoof announces resignation from the ruling coalition but will continue in a caretaker role. This move is expected to trigger a snap election in the Netherlands.

Crypto Events

Crypto Market Surges Amid Institutional Interest and Regulatory Uncertainty, Bitcoin Holds $105K

The cryptocurrency market is experiencing significant volatility and excitement, with Bitcoin reclaiming the $105,000 mark after a weekend liquidation shock. Ethereum is also showing strength, with its price potentially heading towards $2,850. Institutional interest in crypto continues to grow, as evidenced by BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF becoming one of the fastest-growing ETFs in history. Notably, Strategy and NASDAQ-listed BTCS have made substantial Bitcoin and Ethereum purchases, respectively. Solana's integration with major banks signals a new era for crypto investments. However, the market faces challenges, including sudden outflows from Bitcoin funds and regulatory pressures. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's comments about the Biden administration putting crypto on a path to extinction have sparked debate, especially given Bitcoin's significant price increase during Biden's tenure. Analysts are divided on the short-term outlook, with some predicting a potential rally to $120,000 for Bitcoin, while others caution about possible downside risks. Ethereum's performance has been particularly strong, outpacing Bitcoin in recent weeks and attracting increased institutional interest. The altcoin market is also showing signs of life, with some analysts suggesting an altcoin season may be approaching. As the crypto market continues to evolve, investors are closely watching key support and resistance levels, as well as regulatory developments that could impact the industry's future.

Trump Family "All In" on Crypto After Political Debanking, Says Donald Trump Jr.

Donald Trump Jr. declares his family's full commitment to Bitcoin and cryptocurrency, citing their experience of being "debanked" after entering politics. He emphasizes their involvement as a necessity rather than a trend, signaling a shift in political energy towards digital assets.

Trump Family Distances Itself from Controversial Crypto Wallet Launch

A Trump-branded crypto wallet launch has caused controversy, with Eric and Donald Trump Jr. denying family involvement. The Trump Organization also distanced itself from the project. A $1M TRUMP token prize was promoted, but its authenticity is questioned. An official wallet is reportedly in the works via World Liberty Financial.

Dubai Regulators Approve Ripple's RLUSD Stablecoin, Boosting Crypto Adoption

Ripple's RLUSD stablecoin has received regulatory approval from Dubai's Financial Services Authority for use in the Dubai International Financial Centre. This marks a significant milestone for Ripple and global crypto adoption.

SolarBank Embraces Bitcoin in Bold Treasury Move, Stock Soars

SolarBank Corporation adopts Bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset, causing its shares to surge. The company announces a new treasury strategy incorporating cryptocurrency.

Fixed Income And Interest Rates Events

Bond Market Turbulence: Divergent Views on Crash Risks, Interest Rates, and Crypto Regulations Shake Investor Confidence

The bond market is experiencing significant volatility, with analysts and officials offering diverse perspectives. While some predict a potential bond crash, others remain bullish on US treasuries. Brazil's President Lula expects interest rate reductions soon, citing controlled inflation. Meanwhile, the US administration's crypto regulations are intensifying, potentially threatening the industry's future. Various bond-related ETFs have declared monthly distributions, reflecting ongoing market activity. Treasury yields have shown mixed reactions to recent economic data, including job openings and factory orders. The situation remains fluid, with investors closely monitoring developments in both traditional and cryptocurrency markets for potential impacts on their portfolios.

Japan's 10-Year Bond Auction Attracts Strongest Demand in Over a Year, Easing Market Pressure

Japan's 10-year debt auction saw robust demand, with the highest bid-to-cover ratio in 14 months. This strong performance eased market concerns amid global yield increases. The auction's success led to a decrease in the 10-year bond yield and an increase in government bond futures.

Swiss Deflation Sparks Speculation of Imminent Interest Rate Cut

Swiss inflation turned negative for the first time since 2021, falling 0.1% year-over-year in May. This unexpected deflation is increasing pressure on policymakers to lower interest rates, with markets anticipating a potential rate cut to 0% or below by the Swiss National Bank on June 19.

Technology Events

Meta Embraces Nuclear Power in 20-Year Deal with Constellation Energy, Boosting AI Capabilities

Meta, Facebook's parent company, has signed a 20-year deal with Constellation Energy to purchase nuclear power for its data centers. This landmark agreement reflects Meta's commitment to sustainable energy sources as AI demand surges. The deal has caused Constellation Energy's stock to jump, highlighting the growing importance of clean energy in the tech sector.

Broadcom Unveils Advanced Networking Chip to Boost AI Performance

Broadcom has launched new networking technology designed to enhance the performance and efficiency of AI chips, particularly those from Nvidia, in data centers.

SpaceX's 2025 Revenue to Hit $15.5 Billion, Outpacing NASA's Budget

SpaceX's 2025 revenue is projected to reach $15.5 billion, according to CEO Elon Musk. This figure surpasses NASA's 2026 budget, marking a significant milestone for the private space company.

Currencies Events

Dollar Stabilizes, but Traders Bet on Further Weakness Amid Global Economic Uncertainty

The US dollar stabilizes but shows limited upside potential in the short term. Traders are betting on further dollar weakness amid global uncertainty, with increased demand for dollar puts. Options pricing favors the euro, yen, and sterling. Factors influencing the dollar include Trump's tariff pause on some Chinese goods, weaker Eurozone CPI, and dovish central bank stances. The forex market remains cautious as it navigates economic risks and trade policy volatility.

Metals Events

Trump to Sign Order Doubling Steel and Aluminum Tariffs, Sparking Trade War Concerns

Peru's Mining Sector Grows Amid Illegal Activity Concerns

Peru anticipates $4.8 billion in mining investment and a slight increase in copper output this year. Officials warn of rising illegal mining in key regions, with copper production expected to reach 2.8M tons by 2025.

Oil And Gas Events

Oil Prices Climb on Canadian Wildfire Concerns, Overshadowing OPEC+ Output Boost

Oil prices continue to rise due to Canadian wildfires threatening supply, despite OPEC+ production increases. Market strength indicators are soaring, while natural gas futures retreat. Analysts predict inventory builds and potential market shifts, with some seeing opportunities in specific energy companies amid the volatility.

OPEC Kicks Off Major Production Boost with 200,000 B/D Increase in May

OPEC boosted oil production by 200,000 barrels per day in May, reaching 27.54 million B/D. This marks the start of a significant series of increases, led by Saudi Arabia, as the group responds to global energy demands and market pressures.

Russia Scraps Turkish Gas Hub Plan, Loses European Market Opportunity

Gazprom, Russia's gas giant, has abandoned plans for a new gas distribution hub in Turkey, eliminating a potential avenue to re-enter European markets. This quiet decision marks a significant shift in Russia's energy strategy.

Oil Prices Stable Above $60, But Experts Warn of Limited Rally Potential

Oil prices remain steady above $60, supported by geopolitical tensions and a weaker U.S. dollar. However, experts suggest rallies will be capped, with $70-$80 prices unlikely without major geopolitical disruptions. Russia's crude exports have dropped significantly, while some OPEC+ nations show reluctance to boost production.

Oil Market Volatility: Supply Risks Drive Crude Gains, Natural Gas Retreats

Oil markets show mixed signals with crude futures rising on supply risks, while natural gas retreats. Analysts predict U.S. crude inventory changes, and Western Midstream presents a potential buying opportunity for long-term investors.

Corporate Actions Events

KKR Abandons Thames Water's Equity Raise, Complicating Utility's Refinancing Plans

KKR, Thames Water's preferred bidder, has withdrawn from the utility company's equity raising process. This unexpected development impacts Thames Water's refinancing efforts, leaving the company to explore alternative options.

Nordic Consortium Bids €1.3 Billion for Irish Hotel Giant Dalata

A Norwegian-Swedish consortium led by Pandox and Eiendomsspar has made a non-binding offer to acquire Ireland's Dalata Hotel Group for €1.3 billion ($1.48 billion), or €6.05 per share.

Healthcare Events

Pharmaceutical Industry Surges with Groundbreaking Treatments and Clinical Advancements

The pharmaceutical industry is buzzing with breakthroughs and advancements. Alto Neuroscience acquires a novel treatment for TRD, while Estrella Immunopharma secures funding for clinical trials. Kairos Pharma presents promising cancer immunotherapy data, and a new drug shows an 80% success rate in rare skin cancer. IMNN-001 shows potential for ovarian cancer, and Beam Therapeutics receives FDA orphan drug status for SCD treatment. BeyondSpring reports positive NSCLC study results, and aumolertinib gains UK approval for lung cancer treatment.

Hims & Hers Expands Globally with Acquisition of European Telehealth Giant ZAVA

Hims & Hers Health is acquiring European telehealth platform ZAVA in an all-cash deal, marking its expansion into the UK, Germany, France, and Ireland. ZAVA served over 1.3 million active customers in 2024, facilitating 2.3 million consultations.

Amazon Pharmacy Boosts Accessibility with Medicare PillPack Integration and Caregiver Support

Amazon Pharmacy expands services, offering PillPack access to Medicare Part D beneficiaries and introducing caregiver support. This move simplifies medication management and enhances accessibility for customers nationwide.

Earnings Events

Victoria's Secret Faces Security Setback, Still Outperforms in Q1

Victoria's Secret delays Q1 earnings report due to security incident, but preliminary results surpass expectations. Website temporarily affected.

CrowdStrike Soars on Strong Q1 Earnings, Announces $1B Share Buyback

CrowdStrike's Q1 earnings exceeded expectations, with revenue of $1.10B and adjusted EPS of $0.73. The company authorized a $1B share repurchase program and provided optimistic FY26 guidance. Despite a net loss, CrowdStrike's stock climbed to new highs, reflecting investor confidence in its growth potential.

Ollie's Bargain Outlet Beats Q1 Estimates, Expands Store Count, and Maintains Optimistic FY25 Outlook

Ollie's Bargain Outlet exceeded Q1 expectations with EPS of $0.75 and revenue of $576.8M. The company raised its FY25 outlook, projecting EPS of $3.65-$3.75 and reaffirming revenue growth of 1.4%-2.2% YoY. Ollie's opened 25 new stores, including 18 acquired from Big Lots, demonstrating resilience in a challenging retail environment.

Explore more at MarketFlux

Monday, June 2, 2025

This Week's Top E-commerce News Stories 💥 June 2nd, 2025

Hi r/Shopify - I'm Paul and I follow the e-commerce industry closely for my Shopifreaks E-commerce Newsletter, which I've published weekly since 2021.

I was invited by the Mods of this subreddit to share my weekly e-commerce news recaps (ie: shorter versions of my full editions) to r/Shopify. Although my news recaps aren't strictly about Shopify (some weeks Shopify is covered more than others -- like this week!), I hope they bring value to your business no matter what platform you're on.

Let's dive into this week's top stories...

STAT OF THE WEEK: PDD Holdings, parent of Temu, reported a 38% drop in Q1 2025 profits, citing US tariffs, heightened competition, and expanded merchant support programs. Co-CEO Lei Chen said global policy shifts like tariffs have hurt merchant adaptability, forcing Temu to rethink its supply chain and stop shipping directly from China. The company is prioritizing long-term platform health over short-term gains.

The US Court of International Trade struck down President Trump’s worldwide reciprocal tariffs on Wednesday, ruling that he exceeded his authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act — a law that came into effect in 1977 that allows the president to bypass congressional approval and regulate commerce during a declared national emergency involving an unusual and extraordinary foreign threat. The court, however, found no legal connection between the tariffs and the Trump administration's stated emergency of drug trafficking, halting their enforcement and barring future modifications. The Trump administration was given 10 days to carry out the judges’ orders, to which they immediately appealed the decision, and a federal appeals court temporarily reinstated most of Trump's tariffs the next day. The initial ruling would have lowered the overall effective US tariff rate to about 6%, but the appellate court's temporary reinstatement means it will remain at about 15%, according to estimates from Oxford Research.

Amazon quietly launched a major internal initiative called “Bend the Curve” to delete billions of underperforming product listings from its marketplace, targeting ASINs that are inactive, have no inventory, or haven’t been updated in years, according to an internal planning document obtained by Business Insider. The project aims to reduce the number of active listings to under 50B, down from an estimated 74B , while maintaining growth in actual product selection. As part of the effort, Amazon introduced “creation throttling” to restrict large, low-performing seller accounts from adding more listings, affecting around 12,000 sellers and preventing 110M new listings.

Meta aims to enable businesses to fully create and target ads using AI by the end of next year, according to Wall Street Journal sources. The company already offers some AI tools that can generate ad variations, and now Meta wants to help brands create advertising concepts from scratch. With the ad tools that Meta is developing, a brand could present an image of the product it wants to promote along with a budgetary goal, and AI would create the entire ad, including imagery, video, and text, and decide which Instagram and Facebook users to target and where to place the ads. Meta also plans to allow advertisers to personalize ads with AI so that users see different versions of the ad in real-time based on their geolocation and other factors (as opposed to having to manually create separate creatives and ad sets).

China’s eCommerce regulator issued draft guidelines for fees that e-commerce marketplaces can charge third-party merchants, saying that online platform should charge reasonable fees while taking into consideration factors like operating costs for the merchants they do business with. The regulator is calling on platforms to set flexible pricing strategies, clearly publicize their fee structures, establish dedicated compliance teams and internal mechanisms to identify and prevent unreasonable charges, and provide better support to smaller merchants. These proposed regulations are part of a broader effort by Chinese authorities to support local merchants amid economic challenges and to address concerns over non-transparent and complex fee structures on e-commerce platforms.

OpenAI abandoned its plan to spin off its for-profit arm and instead is proposing converting it into a public benefit corporation under its nonprofit's control that would be valued at $300B. Under this new structure, the nonprofit would continue to oversee and control the for-profit arm, however, the latter could issue shares, as well as exchange the profit-sharing units of investors like Microsoft and Thrive Capital for equity. The nonprofit would continue to own a stake in the for-profit arm, however OpenAI hasn't disclosed what exactly that would be — which is a big question for both state regulators and critics of the restructuring. Various groups are pressing attorneys general in Delaware and California to investigate the matter fully before giving approval.

The seven-week trial between Meta and the FTC has ended, and a decision now rests in US District Judge James Boasberg's hands as to whether Meta holds an illegal monopoly in social media. Judge Boasberg says the key question he must answer is how to define social media, which has changed rapidly over the past decade as platforms have branched out into entertainment, gaming, and commerce. Both sides will have the chance to file follow-up briefings this summer. Judge Boasberg said he would work “expeditiously” to issue an opinion.

DHL is now a pre-integrated partner on Shopify's shipping platform in the US and Germany, with plans to expand to other major markets in the Americas, Europe, and the Asia-Pacific region by 2026. For merchants in the USA, it also brings “Delivered Duty Paid” shipping as a native feature, a service which protects consumers from unexpected additional fees such as customs charges or import sales tax. DHL joins USPS, which offers up to 88% off shipping rates, and UPS, which advertises up to 83% off rates, as a Shopify pre-integrated shipping partner, advertising up to 80% international shipping from DHL Express to over 220 countries and territories. Noticeably absent from that list is FedEx, who I guess is too busy servicing packages from their non-competitor Amazon to strike a deal with Shopify.

Brazil is piloting a digital wallet program called dWallet that lets citizens earn money from their personal data. Through dWallets, users can accept bids from companies on their data, receive payment, and transfer funds to bank accounts. Last year, the country announced that it is rolling out a data ownership pilot that will allow Brazilians to manage, own, and profit from their digital footprint, marking the first initiative of its kind in the world. The pilot includes a small group Brazilians who will use data wallets to apply for payroll loans. Once the users give permission for the lenders to collect data in the wallets, the companies will be able to view the information and then bid on the loan.

Amazon significantly pulled back its ad presence across Google Shopping during the past week, marking its most notable retreat since 2020 when it paused ads for nearly three months at the start of the pandemic. Tinuiti data shows that Amazon's daily impression share dropped sharply, which could signal a strategic pivot or larger market dynamics at play. Tinuiti also noted that Walmart's presence in Google auctions diminished in the last month, but not as dramatically, however, seeing large swings in Walmart's share of Google Shopping impressions isn't as unusual.

The European Union warned Shein that several of its practices violate the region's consumer protection laws, including the retailer offering “fake discounts,” pressuring customers into completing purchases with phony deadlines, and using deceptive product labels to trick users into thinking an item comes with special characters when “the relevant feature is required by law.” Shein was told that it needs to bring its practices in line with the law or face a fine.

Temu was featured at Google I/O 2025 as an early adopter of Google's new Web UI primitives, which are a set of Web UI APIs designed to improve interactivity, performance, and responsiveness in web applications. The platform was was presented as a case study for implementing these technologies to deliver a more dynamic and engaging digital shopping experience, for example, by using carousels, tooltips, and dropdown menus to create more seamless and responsive user experiences.

Shopify's new Chief Design Officer, Carl Rivera, described his future vision for the platform as “an interface where you can quickly shift between talking, typing, clicking, and even drawing to instruct software, like moving around a whiteboard in a dynamic conversation. An experience in which users are not presented with a barrage of nested menus, but with a blank canvas that invites creativity aided by an artificial intelligence that knows everything there is to know about online and brick-and-mortar retail and marketing.” He went on to say that “by the end of this year, we'll have made a ton more progress. And by the end of next year, we'll be pretty science fiction-like.”

Eric Trump and Donald Trump Jr. championed Bitcoin and decentralized finance at the Bitcoin 2025 conference in Las Vegas, promoting their family's World Liberty Fi platform and slamming traditional banks. The brothers cited being “debanked” as their entry point into crypto and criticized the current financial system as invasive and outdated. Their appearance followed Vice President J.D. Vance’s pro-crypto remarks, highlighting the Trump administration’s active embrace of digital assets.

Poshmark is the latest marketplace to take advantage of Meta's new Facebook Marketplace Partnership program, testing things out in the US with a small number of listings to start. Select Poshmark listings now appear on Facebook clearly designated as Marketplace Partner listings with a “check out with Poshmark” button that takes the user to Poshmark's website to complete the purchase. Meta launched the partnership program earlier this year in response to antirust scrutiny in Europe and the US, first partnering with eBay before expanding to other marketplaces.

Temu and Shein are gaining ground in Europe with Temu's year-over-year sales in the region surging more than 60% in early May and Shein growing 50% in the UK, according to data from Consumer Edge. Both companies have slashed ad budgets in the US and ramped up digital advertising in European markets, primarily in France and the UK. However in absolute terms, US consumers still make up the majority share of both retailers' revenue.

Anthropic hit $3B in annualized revenue, up from $1B in December 2024, according to two Reuters sources. The figure crossed $2B at the end of March, and hit $3B at the end of May. The surge is largely from selling AI models as a service to other companies, primarily its code generation software. In comparison, OpenAI has projected t will end 2025 with more than $12B in total revenue, up from $3.7B last year.

Speaking of AI popping off… MetaAI now has one billion monthly active users across its apps, according to Mark Zuckerberg, doubling the 500M monthly active users it had in September 2024. Zuckerberg said at the company's annual shareholder meeting that the “focus for this year is deepening the experience and making Meta AI the leading personal AI with an emphasis on personalization, voice conversations and entertainment,” adding that Meta's plan is to keep building out the AI assistant before creating a business around it.

Google's not letting Meta have all the fun though. Last week Google released an app called Google AI Edge Gallery that lets users run a range of publicly available AI models from the AI dev platform Hugging Face on their phones. The app allows users to find, download, and run compatible models that generate images, answer questions, write and edit code, and perform other tasks completely offline by tapping into the phone's processor.

Block is launching Bitcoin for Businesses, a feature that enables Square merchants to accept BTC payments via the Lightning Network, a decentralized network that uses blockchain smart contracts for instant, low-cost payments. The feature builds on its existing Bitcoin Conversions tool, which allows merchants to automatically convert a portion of sales into bitcoin and offer QR code payments.

Victoria's Secret temporarily shut down its e-commerce site for three days last week during a cyber attack. The company declined to answer questions about a possible ransomware infection, the timeline of the problems, or whether it has asked police to investigate, however, the site appears to be operational again as of Friday. In the last six weeks, three major UK retail chains including Marks and Spencer, Harrods, and the Co-op have all suffered attacks.

Amazon and The New York Times entered into a multi-year licensing agreement that allows Amazon to access much of the publication's editorial content for AI-related uses such as training its AI models and accessing summaries of its content using Alexa. The New York Times previously sued OpenAI and Microsoft for training their models on the company's content without permission back in 2023, but the case is still ongoing.

Last year one basic bitch sued another basic bitch for copying her style on social media. Amazon influencer Sydney Nicole Gifford accused Alyssa Sheil of copying her aesthetic to sell the same Amazon products, citing dozens of similar posts, while Sheil denied the claims and presented data showing that some of her posts predated Gifford's. The two influencers have now asked the judge to dismiss the closely watched copyright lawsuit, with no money exchanging hands in the resolution. Gifford finally spoke out on social media about the case, showing some of her evidence, and it's pretty damning! Watch the video and decide for yourself whether the lawsuit had merit.

Meta is reorganizing its gen-AI team into two groups — one team to oversee the company’s AI research and another to handle its consumer AI products. The products team will be responsible for the Meta AI Assistant, AI Studio, and AI features within Facebook, Instagram and WhatsApp, while the other team will oversee the company's Llama models, as well as efforts to improve capabilities in reasoning, multimedia and voice. The reorganization aims to streamline operations and clarify roles, enhancing Meta's competitive edge by allowing it to accelerate rollouts of products and features.

In layoffs this week… eBay is shutting down its R&D operations in Israel, with over 200 employees losing their jobs by Q1 2026. TikTok is eliminating several hundred jobs in Indonesia in its latest round of cuts, slashing costs after taking over Tokopedia operations last year. IBM laid off nearly 8,000 employees, with the HR department affected the most, attributing the cuts to AI deployment that can virtually handle the department's operations. LinkedIn announced 281 layoffs across California including software engineers, product managers, deal desk strategists, and designers. Last but not least, Business Insider laid off about one fifth of its workforce across all departments, with plans to embrace AI to help the remaining staff “work faster, smarter, and better.”

Japan Post launched a new “digital address” system that links seven-digit combinations of numbers and letters to physical addresses. Under the new system, users can input these codes on online shopping websites and their addresses will automatically appear on the sites. The digital addresses are permanent and will not change even if the person moves. Rakuten and other platforms are considering adopting the system soon.

India's government has called major e-commerce platforms including Amazon, Flipkart, Swiggy, Zomato, Apple, and Meta for a meeting to push for stronger measures against dark patterns and to discuss penal actions for violations. India officials said that the government's approach is not to punish innovation, but to “ensure that technology does not come at the cost of consumer exploitation.” In November 2023, the Department of Consumer Affairs issued detailed guidelines on dark patterns, which was followed by the launch of a Dark Patterns Buster Hackathon, inviting tech solutions to detect and prevent such practices.

An Amazon delivery drone crash landed in the middle of an apartment complex in Tolleson, Arizona last Wednesday, just a few weeks after the company launched its Prime Air Drone Delivery service in the city. Luckily no-one was around when the drone went down and no-one was harmed in the accident. Amazon's Prime Air drone delivery program has experienced multiple crashes during its testing phases, with at least eight crashes reported between 2021 and 2022, including an incident in June 2021 where a drone crash sparked a 22-acre fire in Oregon. In December 2024, two MK30 drones crashed during test flights in Oregon due to faulty altitude readings caused by a software update that increased the sensitivity of their lidar sensors.

German courts ruled that websites in the country must now provide an equally visible “reject all” button on cookie consent banners if offering an “accept all” option. The decision aims to curb manipulative designs that pressure users into consenting to cookies and reinforces that manipulative cookie banners violate GDPR and national privacy laws. The case sets a precedent mandating fairer digital consent practices and greater transparency for data processing online.

Amazon Fire Sticks and hardware from Microsoft, Google, and Facebook are enabling “billions of dollars” worth of streaming piracy, according to a report from media research firm Enders Analysis. The report points to the availability of multiple, simultaneous illegal streams for big events that draw tens of thousands of pirate viewers and places blame on Facebook for showing advertisements for access to illegal streams, as well as Google and Microsoft for the alleged “continued depreciation” of their digital rights management systems. Nick Herm, COO of Comcast-owned Sky Group, estimated that piracy is costing the company hundreds of millions of dollars in revenue and that Fire Sticks account for about half of the piracy in the UK.

Amazon is facing scrutiny again for selling over 100k kitchen faucets that were recalled for containing dangerous levels of lead. In the past few months, the company has been caught selling facial recognition tech to police departments, AI-generated books on managing ADHD, rice contaminated with arsenic and other heavy metals, and concentrated sodium nitrate that led to the death of a teenager. Historically Amazon has dodged liability for third-party sales, but a 2023 Consumer Product Safety Commission ruling now holds the company responsible for unsafe FBA items.

Duolingo's CEO Luis von Ahn retracted his claim that AI will replace the company's human workforce, saying now that AI should be treated as a tool to help employees rather than supplant them. The week prior, Duolingo said it would “gradually stop using contractors to do work AI can handle,” which led to tremendous backlash, with many users canceling their subscriptions or deleting their accounts. The company abruptly deleted all of its posts on social media to avoid the backlash, and then followed up with a cryptic video that aimed to separate itself (the social media team?) from its corporate leadership. Check out my conspiracy theory on LinkedIn, where I postulate how the company faked a data breach to inflate its monthly average user count.

Sorry short kings… Tinder launched a new feature that lets paid subscribers add their height preferences to their profiles. (Good thing it's impossible to lie about your height!) The company says that the setting will indicate a preference, rather than functioning as a “hard filter,” which means it won't actually block or exclude profiles, but simply inform recommendations. One Reddit user commented, “It's the only way they're going to get women to pay for the service too,” while another user wrote, “gotta add the weight and single mom filter now.”

Shopify was ranked the number one brand advertising on Australian podcasts for Q1 2025, according to a report by ARN's iHeart and Magellan AI, signaling the company's increased efforts to tap into the Australian market. As of Q2 2024, Australia hosts over 115k Shopify stores, including more than 2,300 Shopify Plus stores, representing 32% YoY growth. Other e-commerce companies on the list include Wise (#5), Airbnb (#6), Squarespace (#7), and American Express (#13).

24% of BNPL users in the US were behind on payments in 2024, up from 18% in 2023, according to data compiled by the Federal Reserve. Low-income borrowers were the most likely to miss payments, with 40% of users earning less than $25,000 a year reporting a delinquency. More than half of BNPL users said they would not otherwise have been able to afford their purchases if it weren't for the installment payment option.

🏆 This week's most ridiculous story… former Facebook executive Nick Clegg insisted during an arts festival last weekend that it's “implausible” to ask tech companies to ask for consent from creators before using their work to train their AI models. He said, “I just don't know how you go around, asking everyone first,” and noted that if AI companies were required only in Britain to gain permission to use copyright holders' works, “you would basically kill the AI industry in this country overnight.” I call BS on that one! Sure it would cost AI companies some upfront capital to obtain consent and pay copyright holders, but we're talking about a very small slice of the pie. It's been estimated that it only would have cost Meta around $150M to buy a copy of each of the 7.5M books it pirated to train its LLM.

Plus 15 seed rounds, IPOs, and acquisitions of interest including Portless, a direct-from-manufacturer logistics startup that ships from facilities close to manufacturers in China, Vietnam, and soon India, raising $18M in a Series A round led by Commerce Ventures.

I hope you found this recap helpful. See you next week!

PAUL

PS: If I missed any big news this week, please share in the comments.

Wednesday, June 4, 2025

What GP looks for in consensus upgrades

Past cases

Unconfirmed transaction chain limit (2021)

ASERT difficulty adjustment algorithm (2020)

Introspection opcodes (2022)

PMv3 (2021)

Which proposals do we support? Which ones not?

The Daily Market Flux - Your Complete Market Rundown (06/04/2025)

Top Stories

Trump-Putin Call: No Immediate Peace, Ukraine Tensions Persist

US Private Sector Hiring Slumps in May, ADP Data Shows Weakest Job Growth in Over a Year

South Korea's New President Lee Vows Economic Revival and Diplomatic Pragmatism

Trump Dives into Crypto: Plans Branded Wallet and Trading App for Supporters

Other News

Geopolitics Events

Trump and Putin's 75-Minute Call Addresses Ukraine Conflict, Iran Nuclear Issue, but Yields No Immediate Peace Prospects

Trump Demands Rate Cut from "Unbelievable" Powell After Weak Jobs Report Shocks Markets

Trump Praises Xi Personally, But Calls Him "Extremely Hard" to Deal With in Trade Talks

CBO: GOP Tax Plan to Add $2.4 Trillion to US Debt, Sparking Fiscal Concerns

China Eyes Massive Airbus Order, Potentially Snubbing Boeing

Trump Urges Scrapping Debt Limit to Avert Economic Disaster

Taiwan and US Defy China's Silence, Commemorate Tiananmen Square Crackdown on 36th Anniversary

US Denies Air Cover for European Forces in Post-War Ukraine

NATO Chief Rutte: U.S. Commitment Firm, Allies Must Boost Defense Spending

Elon Musk Rallies Public to "Kill" Trump's Tax Bill, Warning of Potential Bankruptcy for America

China Seeks French Support to Ease EU Trade Tensions Amid US Rift

Zelenskiy Proposes Ceasefire, Seeks Putin Meeting Amid Ongoing Ukraine-Russia Conflict

Putin Doubts Ukraine Peace Talks, Cites Recent Attacks as Obstacle

U.S. Downgrades Ukraine's Drone Strike Impact, Citing Fewer Russian Planes Hit

Macro Events

Bank of Canada Holds Rates Steady as U.S. Job Market Shows Signs of Cooling

Eurozone Economic Growth Stalls as Services Sector Stumbles, UK and Italy Show Resilience

Trump Demands Rate Cut from "Unbelievable" Powell After Weak Jobs Report Shocks Markets

US Services Sector Expands, Brazil's Contracts in May PMI Data

CBO: Trump's Tariffs Could Slash $2.8 Trillion from Deficit, but May Hamper Economic Growth

CBO: Trump Tariffs to Slash Deficit by $2.8T, but at Cost of Economic Growth

Fed's Beige Book Shows Slight Economic Decline and Mixed Outlook Across Districts

Fed Removes Wells Fargo's Asset Cap, Signaling End to Growth Restrictions

Sweden and India Lead Services Sector Growth as APAC PMIs Show Mixed Results

Trump's 50% Steel and Aluminum Tariffs Implemented, Raising Price Concerns

Housing Market Uncertainty Persists Amid Interest Rate Decision and Stagnant Listings

U.S. Services Sector Shrinks Unexpectedly as Tariff Pressures Mount

US Services PMI Surprises, Trade War Impacts Linger: Markets Await Key Events

Canadian Services Sector Shows Signs of Improvement in May

US to Impose Aircraft Tariffs by Month-End, Says Commerce Secretary Lutnick

Canada Weighs Options, Including Counter-Tariffs, in Response to U.S. Trade Measures

Technology Events

Amazon Bets Big on AI: $10 Billion Investment in North Carolina to Fuel Cloud and AI Innovation

Reddit Sues AI Firm Anthropic Over Alleged Unauthorized Data Use

NVIDIA's Blackwell Superchips Power Record-Breaking AI Performance in Latest MLPerf Results

U.S. Revises CHIPS Act Grants, Pushes for Domestic AI Dominance

Microsoft's Free AI Cybersecurity Initiative Shields European Governments

Microsoft Reshuffles Leadership: LinkedIn CEO to Lead Office and AI Initiatives

Meta Courts Hollywood Giants for Exclusive Content on New Premium VR Headset

OpenAI Hits 3M Business Users, Expands Workplace Offerings

Tesla's China Sales Slump 15% in May, BYD Surges Ahead in Competitive EV Market

Oil And Gas Events

EIA Report Shows Surprising Crude Inventory Drop, but Fuel Stock Builds Muddy Oil Market Outlook

Saudi Arabia Tweaks Global Oil Prices Amid OPEC+ Output Boost

Russian Oil Revenue Plummets Amid Global Price Slump and OPEC+ Production Hike

TotalEnergies Expands Presence in Brazil's Offshore Oil Sector

Saudis Push for Bigger OPEC+ Output Hikes to Boost Market Share

Fixed Income And Interest Rates Events

Treasury Yields Plummet on Weak Economic Data, Fueling Rate Cut Speculation

Bond Market Buzzes as Stocks Waver on Employment Data; Equity Risk Premium Nears Historic Lows

BOJ Mulls Easing Bond Tapering Pace, Ueda Confirms Review

Housing Market Uncertainty Persists Amid Interest Rate Decision and Stagnant Listings

Earnings Events

Dollar Tree's Mixed Signals: Strong Q1, but Q2 Profit Warning Spooks Investors

CrowdStrike Stock Plunges on Weak Forecast, Outage Aftermath Despite Strong Q1 Performance

Crypto Events

JPMorgan Embraces Crypto ETFs with New Financing Options, Defying CEO's Skepticism

Crypto Market Divergence: Bitcoin Stalls, Ethereum Rises, and XRP Teeters on Breakout Edge

Bitcoin 2025 Conference Highlights Mainstream Adoption as Price Hovers at $105,000

Interest Rate Shifts and Market Volatility: From Clorox to Bitcoin, Financial Landscape in Flux

Trump's Truth Social Ventures into Crypto, Files for Bitcoin ETF

XRP Price Consolidates at $2.25 Amid Mixed Signals and Bullish Predictions

Treasury Yields Climb as Bitcoin Bet Looms Large for MicroStrategy

Bitcoin ETFs Bounce Back with $375M Inflow, Signaling Renewed Institutional Confidence