Todays themes:
- Candlestick Patterns Formations - pivot points seen so far on 12 hours
Oval indicating a flashpoint for the bears
- Take-aways with moving averages
- Bollinger Bands
- How to filter a proper rally or correction using background colors and momentum indicators
Here are some notes and observations from this 12-hour chart of Bitcoin
The prior 12-hours were seen to have a lot of buying pressure making it look like a bullish hammer.
Key Event is the flash point in the oval shaded in yellow
The Catalyst (Yellow Oval): The bears have taken a strong hold over price ever since the 121k+ territory and have given instances of an illusion of a rally or subtle rallies along then way when it is really based on more short term momentum than any real staying power
The attempts at breaking new highs - purple downward facing arrows I am summarizing but here are some levels in which I have placed them: 118900, 18300, 117200, and of course today's 115,720
- A Flashpoint for the Bulls?
Even though Bitcoin surged 4612 in the 12- hours including an important news story it is still worthy to note that it happen in the midst of a bear phase. Whether or not this is a bullish impulse that will continue has yet to be seen. One candle alone is a powerful even but they all must be used in context and with other methods of confirming momentum.
Here's why I would like to have an indicator point out the probability of which area Bitcoin would find its respective trading range (in the image below)
MA (Moving Average)
Momentum for either way divided by the 50 period moving average
Price now is below its 50-EMA on the 12 hour chart!
Bullish Momentum (Above the Blue Line):
- When Bitcoin trades above the blue moving average, it indicates the recent price trend is upward-sloping
- The moving average acts as dynamic support - price tends to bounce off it during pullbacks
- Staying above this level keeps Bitcoin within the bullish trading range (the green zone at or above 116,000)
- Each successful test and bounce from this level reinforces bullish confidence
Bearish Momentum (Below the Blue Line):
- When Bitcoin falls below the blue moving average, it signals that recent price action has turned negative
- This indicates sellers are gaining control and pushing prices lower
- The moving average now acts as dynamic resistance - rallies tend to fail when they reach this level
- Breaking below shifts the trading environment to bearish, potentially targeting the lower range (yellow zone)
- The longer price stays below what could be called a money line it continually reinforces the prior said pressure to the downside
Why we have Bollinger Bands up: It is often the last of our method and series of indicators that align band levels and moving averages to enhance probability
What the sloping blue line in the middle represents
The MA blue line represents the 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA), which acts as the centerline and primary trend indicator. Price is currently decisively below the SMA by a margin of 1,500 to 2,000 points, signaling a strong bearish bias, with the line also serving as dynamic resistance.
Color Coding Entries and Exits with Background color descriptions
built for even shorter term trades but it serves its purpose
Timing is everything and we can back test this ai model too alongside conventional TA
For a whole other set of price charts
No system is perfect but its good to have another model
Thank you for taking the time to read my posts; I truly appreciate your attention and engagement. Your support and interest mean a lot.
