POST NOTE:
Sorry for missing the last couple days, the MODs in other commercial for profit groups, who have had truth* spoken to their "power" by lil'ol me, reported me for "spamming" their groups. (They know who they are.)
" Spam is any kind of unwanted, unsolicited digital communication that gets sent out in bulk. "
Q1: What is this "unwanted" communication?
A1: *Inconvenient Truths, readily verifiable from third party sources.
Q2: What is "bulk"?
A2: " bulk is a large portion, great size or big volume. " IE: it's a subjective term, readily reifiable ;)
So in this twisted Reddit World, Subjective Spam Assignment=Blame The Victim Stealth Censorship Op
How petty, disappointing, and \ugh*-common!*
Ok, back to the purpose of this subreddit.....
***
0.0 MARKET OUTLOOK:
TS: 2:04pm pst
Friday was a very risk off day, post the FED Blabfest. Is this what I expected? Yes. Why? Inflation forces the FEDs hand.
Who is the FED, that darling organization artificially propping up asset prices in the endless game of Monetary Mu$ical Chairs it plays, as its member are playing the market. (AOC has this one exactly right, Pelosi? Haha, noooooooooooooooooo.)
I am still wary, but still see a slow grind up likely after Friday (broken record moi haha-sowwy!)-and Friday brought some excellent entry ops for that mambo.
Meanwhile, Ms. Market still descending d/d-with lots of pockets of weakness===>largest caps in full neutral trend mode now, (see chart at item 5.5 below).
1.0 MARKET UP FACTORS:
Still more Recent Bubble Be-Gone (everything is on relative sale-so price probability is de facto higher)
The 8000lb Gorilla Event In The Room (the Fed Speaky), is O-V-E-R.
Broader Markets Weakened-relevant correlations (SPX & VIX) support price up (\see chart at item 5.1)*
VIX Moving Sideways to Slightly Back Up (continuing rounding bottom pattern), nothing scary in view
VIX of VIX doing ditto, nothing scary in view
Wee Wee Hour Fire Sales Mild (=market stable)
Seasonality (markets usually grind up on avg into year end)
DOW THEORY Signal 100% Positive (general 'risk on' orientation ok)
Covid Fears Abating & Lockdown Damage Potential Reduced (low political will the world landscape)
2.0 MARKET DOWN FACTORS:
1hr Trends In Many Staple Industrial Coins Remaining Negative (this is the tide-respect the tide!)
Tax Loss Selling Wary (section 475 trader big money=market down and nervous)
Hedge Funds Recently Derisking & Back Short (=market down/nervous, see item 5.2 chart)
Holidays Reduce Liquidity (aids market manipulation by pumper/dumpers & whales, BS Liqs, etc)
Covid Fear Based Volatility Potential = High, but decreasing
3.0 MY SCALP TRADE POSITIONING: (unchanged-and working very well)
Full Long, no reversal shorts-"duck hunt"* shorts ok, (*ie: "over priced" shorts on wild pumper action)
No Meme Coin Longs (hopium has flagged and may stay weak/risk off in this sector)
Small Range, Shorter Parry Advisable (tight market not likely to run anywhere, more drop in the cards)
4.0 TARGETS I PREFER: (unchanged & working well, but may need to switch out some horses!)
4.1) Solid industrial FAANG type value stuff that has not run up large recently;
ADA, ALGO, AVAX(?), ATOM, BNB, DOT, FIL, LUNA(?), SOL, UNI
4.2) Solid project small cap stuff that has been beaten down;
AKT, AUDIO, DVPN, CAKE, KCS, CELO, CTK, FTM, HBAR, SRM, VGX
4.3) META Buzz small cap stuff with some cap mojo that is being FOMO bid;
MANA, SAND
4.4) Duck Hunts
AAVE, YFI
5.0 RANDOM CHARTS OF INTEREST TO NOTE
5.1 Broader Market Correlations
None as can be seen, but in the last 2 weeks a couple useful correlations exist...
As per the effusive commentary under "Trend", anyone care to tell me how a 15 day correlation can go from nada to a whole lotta in a few days? Is this chart narrative, or data? ;/ hmmmm...........
5.2 Fast $ vs Slow $ Positioning
No change-again...Fast $ (and me) sees prices falling, Slow $ just doesn't....
5.3 The "Are We Having Fun"-O-Meter
5.4 Volume
Volume up = crowd conviction/participation**
**IE: the price data of higher volume periods tends to be more relevant than those of lower volume periods. So when trying to understand trend momentum messages, one best focuses on periods where volume is strongest. (As here.)
5.5 Largest Cap Trend
Trends Flipping By The Day? (um, no....see the note***)
***Ok, so here is a "big" organization (Hedgeye) that produces data for sale at a reasonable price, (I recommend them, and have zero affiliation other than I am a customer, and no-I don't provide referral links to earn a tooth decay causing lollipop in exchange for my professional integrity as they do in the larger CryptoCurrenty & teensy CryptoHorde subreddits).
If you follow these posts you know that all of a sudden the Trends (Bullish-Neutral-Bearish) have been flipping about all of a sudden. Why? Can a "Trend" change 180 degrees in a day? No!**** It can be challenged, it can be divergent, it can do nothing....but it doesn't flip in a paid for news headline written by some dude trying to please his employer.
So what gives here?:
a) organizations that sell things are always seeking something to sell, even when there is nothing to sell....happens to the best of them as they are all fixated on GROWTH, because growth=gold....if ya ain't got growth-ya ain't worth nuthin. This is the precise reason why all paid guru sources are suspect, de facto. All "news" needs to be treated with several grains......
b) the analytical model is poorly constructed/operated
So what is the trend Ms. Critic?
Define the time period, and I will answer that directly, w/o double speak or dogma.....
How? Simple TA.
No magic, no chaos of shifting signal, no Analysis Paralysis, no need to pay someone to tell you-just personal empowerment 101. THAT is the "business" teachers are in. (And it does not pay well, haha.)
Now, we have to start with a definition of Trend, and so out comes the dictionary, (I do not define terms which are not of my creation, I look to verifiable third party sources for that):
"Trend (noun): a general direction in which something is developing or changing."
Ok, then the way to be accurate here is to say, "1 minute trend", or "15 minute trend" or "1 hour trend" or "1 week trend" or "1 month trend" or "year to date trend" or "trend to date".
Change the time period, and you will often get a different "trend".
The trick is to use the right trend for the decision under consideration.
5.5.1 HODLrs
If a HODLr, that "right trend" is typically "trend to date".
What is that for Bitcoin? Always Bullish by definition:
Google Query: "What was the lowest price of Bitcoin?"
Google Answer: "When the cryptocurrency was launched at the beginning of 2009, as Satoshi Nakamoto mined the bitcoin genesis block (the first-ever block on the Bitcoin blockchain), 50 BTC entered circulation at a price of $0.00."
Hey-it's that "something out of nothing" narrative bit that "haves" always expect out of "have nots". :)
And here is that time to date trend chart:
The Trend Of Bitcoin's Price Is Up Bro!
Yeah, I didn't go back to 2009 there, as the data before 2017 is not of much value, (and if represented here, would only underscore the point).
5.5.2 Scalpers (eewwwwwwwwwww)
If not a HODLr, but the exact opposite, a "Scalper" (oh the derogatory terminology, sorta like the "slut" as opposed to "sexually open minded and adventurous female" BS), the right trend is "the 1 minute trend", as here:
The Trend Of Bitcoin's Price Is Down!
Now this is fun, for if we zoom out to the HODLr relevant time view, the above scalper trend looks like this:
Scalper's Present View = HODLr Holy Hell :)
This is how I (a Scalper Slut), see's Bitcoin value....Bitcoin which is in essence a data product with intrinsic value of the idea, hardware, time, and energy cost of "creation". I trade it accordingly. (In the many thousands of dollars range, Bitcoin is pure blue sky material, when the narrative is ignored.)
5.5.3 Swing Traders
For Swing Traders, the "right trend" is the "15 minute trend"....assuming their time target is within several days, (not weeks or months, etc). And again here, the term "swing" needs clarification if it is to be used for productive conversation.
Here is Trend to said Swing Trader, using a 15m chart:
The Trend Of Bitcoin's Price Is Down!
This is how I (a Scalper) views Bitcoin in a DDT TA trade gone wong, that I am 'forced' to swing in order to prevail upon, (I do not use stop loss exits, I swing my losing trades-and you betcha I make those too).
5.5.4 Investors
For investors, well.....you see where this is going-to be meaningful and well understood, we must be clear, and use consensually validated and/or stated terminology.
Without that, we are all just spitting in the wind-at ourselves.
And yeah, that just identifies what is wrong with most of the stuff posted in these crypto related subreddits.
Such a simple concept that is so oft overlooked: 9/10ths of all world problems are rooted in miscommunication. So why do so many pay so little attention to effective communication technique/ptotocol? Excellent question-and ya got me there! I have never understood this.
The only thing I can come up with is: there is an advantage to being unclear, and that is 'lack of clarity hides the "truth" of one's orientation', and so makes being responsible for it subject to endless (and oh so handy!), redefinition and reification.
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