https://i.redd.it/q6e796ha25se1.jpeg
Monday, March 31, 2025
This event happened exactly 8 Years ago(April 1, 2017), Did some of you place these orange pixels? (x-post from /r/Bitcoin)
https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1joj8i3/this_event_happened_exactly_8_years_agoapril_1/
The Daily Market Flux - Your Complete Market Rundown (03/31/2025)
MarketFlux.io is a real-time financial news and analytics aggregator that gathers textual news from over 350 sources, providing instant insights and advanced filtering capabilities. With AI-powered sentiment analysis, historical search, and customizable filters, MarketFlux.io enables traders and investors to efficiently track market-moving events as they unfold. Visit Marketflux.io
Top Stories🎯
Trump Administration Mulls Broader Tariffs, Rattling Markets and Raising Economic Concerns
Trump's team considers expanding tariffs, potentially impacting global trade and markets. Gold hits record high as investors anticipate new tariff announcements. The economy remains strong, but tariff actions could affect its trajectory.
French Far-Right Leader Le Pen Convicted of EU Fund Misuse
Marine Le Pen, the far-right leader in France, has been found guilty by a French court of misappropriating European Union funds. The verdict was delivered in a trial concerning the misuse of EU resources, marking a significant legal development for the prominent political figure.
Fed Officials Wary of Tariff Effects on Inflation, Urge Data Vigilance
Fed officials express caution on interest rates amid tariff-related inflation risks. Williams and Barkin emphasize uncertainty around tariff impacts, stressing the need to monitor data closely. They note potential for higher inflation but maintain a baseline view of relative stability.
Global Markets Plunge on 'Liberation Day' Fears, S&P 500 Enters Correction
Global stock markets and U.S. futures tumbled as 'Liberation Day' worries trap investors. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit six-month lows, with major indices falling over 1%. Tech stocks like Tesla and Nvidia saw significant pre-market declines amid broader market turbulence.
Stock Markets Events
Newsmax Shares Skyrocket 667% in Turbulent NYSE Debut
Newsmax, a conservative cable news outlet, experienced a dramatic 667% surge in stock price during its volatile debut on the New York Stock Exchange following a $75 million IPO.
Stock Market Slump: Nasdaq Dives 10% in Q1, S&P 500 Sheds 5.75% in March
Major stock indexes tumbled in Q1 2023, with Nasdaq hit hardest, falling 10.42%. March saw steep declines across the board, with S&P 500 down 5.75% and some stocks plummeting over 17%.
Geopolitics Events
Global Markets Reel as Trump's "Liberation Day" Tariffs Loom, Sparking Recession Fears and Auto Industry Concerns
Global markets are in turmoil as investors brace for President Donald Trump's impending tariff announcements, dubbed "Liberation Day." U.S. stocks and futures are tumbling, with the Dow Jones futures sliding 300 points. The uncertainty surrounding these potential tariffs, which could include a rumored 20% universal tariff on all imports, has sparked recession fears and rattled investor confidence. Trump's stance on tariffs remains firm, stating he "couldn't care less" if automakers raise prices due to the proposed 25% tariffs on foreign cars and parts. The impact is felt across various sectors, with auto stocks like GM, Ford, and Tesla taking a hit. Additionally, Trump has threatened tariffs on Russian oil buyers amid slow Ukraine peace talks, further complicating global trade tensions. As markets grapple with these developments, gold prices have surged to new highs, reflecting the growing economic uncertainty.
Trump Sons Dive into Bitcoin Mining, Expanding Family's Crypto Empire
Number of articles: 27
The Trump family is expanding its cryptocurrency ventures as Eric Trump and Donald Trump Jr. invest in a bitcoin-mining company. Their business will merge with American Bitcoin, adding to the family's growing portfolio of crypto-related enterprises. This move signals the Trumps' continued push into the digital currency space.
Trump to Reveal Controversial Tariff Plan in Rose Garden Ceremony
President Trump will unveil his tariff plan at a Rose Garden event on April 2, with Cabinet members in attendance. The announcement has sparked anticipation and debate among observers.
White House Mulls Executive Order to Accelerate Deep-Sea Mining Permits
The White House is reportedly considering an executive order to expedite permitting for deep-sea mining in international waters, potentially bypassing U.N. oversight and accelerating resource extraction efforts.
Trump's Truth Social Platform Set for NYSE Texas Debut
Trump Media & Technology Group, owner of Truth Social, will debut on the New York Stock Exchange Texas, marking a significant milestone for the company.
Trump Administration Scrutinizes Harvard's $9B Federal Funding Amid Antisemitism Concerns
The Trump administration is reviewing Harvard University's federal contracts and grants, totaling over $9 billion, due to allegations of antisemitism on campus. This investigation aims to address concerns about discrimination and ensure compliance with federal regulations.
Trump Promises Continued Houthi Strikes, Cites Market Impact
Trump declares ongoing strikes against Houthi rebels until maritime security threats cease. He claims recent attacks have severely impacted the Iran-backed group, affecting oil and precious metals markets.
China Opens Doors to Global Investors, Seeks Capital Market Participation
China's Vice Premier He Lifeng met with Bridgewater's Dalio in Beijing, extending an invitation to global investors to participate in building China's capital market and share in development opportunities.
Trump's Anger at Putin Sparks Diplomatic Dance: Kremlin Responds, Leaving Door Open for Dialogue
Former President Trump expressed anger towards Putin, threatening secondary tariffs on Russia. The Kremlin responded, stating they continue working on bilateral relations and Ukraine settlement ideas. Putin remains open to contact with Trump, though no call is currently scheduled. Trump's comments reflect growing tensions, as he also threatened to bomb Iran and impose more tariffs. The situation highlights the complex dynamics between the U.S. and Russia, with potential implications for international relations and trade policies.
White House Threatens Tariffs on Nations Deemed Unfair to U.S.
The White House warns that countries treating the U.S. unfairly should expect tariffs, with no exemptions currently planned for farmers. This stance reflects a tough approach to international trade relations.
US Sanctions Hong Kong Officials Over Beijing's Influence
The Trump administration has imposed sanctions on six Chinese and Hong Kong officials, including the city's justice secretary and police commissioner, for implementing Beijing's policies and eroding Hong Kong's autonomy.
Macro Events
German Retail Sales Surge Unexpectedly, Signaling Potential Economic Recovery
German retail sales showed unexpected strength in February, rising 0.8% month-on-month against estimates of 0%. This positive trend aligns with improved economic sentiment indicators like ZEW and IFO in early Q1. Meanwhile, German import prices increased 0.3% month-on-month, surpassing forecasts. Regional inflation data for March revealed mixed results, with some states reporting slight increases. Japan's industrial output also exceeded expectations, growing 2.5% month-on-month. These figures suggest a potential economic rebound in key global markets, despite ongoing challenges.
Gold Shatters Records, Soaring Past $3,100 as Trump's Tariffs Spark Economic Fears
Gold prices have surged to unprecedented levels, breaking $3,100 per ounce and reaching as high as $3,150. This remarkable rally is driven by investor concerns over President Trump's proposed tariffs, potential economic repercussions, and geopolitical uncertainties. The precious metal is experiencing its best quarterly gain in nearly four decades, reflecting a strong flight to safety among investors amid market jitters.
ECB's Lagarde: Inflation Target in Sight, but Europe Must Remain Vigilant and Independent
ECB President Lagarde reports progress on inflation, nearing the target but cautioning against premature declarations of victory due to ongoing uncertainty. She emphasizes the need for carefully set interest rates to ensure durable inflation reduction. Lagarde also calls for European independence in light of potential Trump tariffs, urging the continent to take control of its economic destiny.
Italian Inflation Spikes in March, Outpacing Expectations; German Regional Data Mixed
Italian inflation surged in March, with CPI rising 2.0% year-over-year and 0.4% month-over-month, exceeding forecasts. HICP jumped 1.6% monthly. Meanwhile, German regional inflation data showed mixed results, with Baden-Wuerttemberg's CPI easing to 2.2% annually.
Markets Plunge to Six-Month Lows as Tariff Fears Spark Recession Worries
S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit six-month lows as investors avoid risky assets due to concerns over Trump administration's upcoming tariff plans. Market fears of recession grow amid escalating trade tensions.
Chicago PMI Beats Forecast, Signals Economic Resilience
US Chicago PMI for March surpasses expectations, rising to 47.6 from 45.5 in February. The index remains in contraction territory but shows improvement, potentially impacting markets and Fed decisions.
Asian Economic Powers Unite: China, Japan, and South Korea to Tackle US Tariffs Together
China, Japan, and South Korea have reportedly reached a consensus to jointly respond to US tariffs, according to Chinese state media. The three nations aim to maintain smooth supply chains in the face of trade challenges posed by American trade policies.
Housing Market Shifts: REITs Offer High Yields as Shelter Inflation Eases, Spring Bargains Anticipated
Housing market dynamics are shifting, with mortgage rates and REITs in focus. Shelter inflation is easing, potentially supporting Fed rate-cut arguments. Investors are eyeing high-yielding REITs, with some offering 6-8% returns. MFA Financial, a mortgage REIT, is adapting to market changes. Despite challenges, the spring housing market may present opportunities for buyers seeking bargains.
IMF Chief Warns of Supply Chain Vulnerabilities and Economic Uncertainty Amid Trade Tensions
IMF Managing Director Georgieva warns that recent global shocks have exposed the vulnerability of supply chains linked to single countries. She emphasizes the growing importance of national security and protectionism in economic policies. While financial conditions remain accommodating, prolonged uncertainty could impact growth. Georgieva notes that U.S. trade policies have introduced significant market uncertainty, potentially affecting inflation, economic growth, and crude demand. She highlights that trade measures create uncertainty, impacting consumer and investor confidence, with GDP growth only slightly outpacing trade growth.
Goldman Sachs Revises Eurozone Outlook: More ECB Rate Cuts and Slower GDP Growth Expected
Goldman Sachs has revised its economic forecasts for the Eurozone, predicting an additional quarter-point rate cut by the ECB in July, on top of expected cuts in April and June. The bank also projects a further 0.25% reduction in Euro-area GDP growth, with the total tariff impact reaching 0.7% of GDP by 2026. Additionally, Goldman now anticipates three 25bps Fed rate cuts in 2025, up from its previous forecast of two.
Oil And Gas Events
U.S. Oil Production Slumps to 11-Month Low as Energy Sector Outperforms Amid Global Supply Concerns
U.S. crude oil production hit an 11-month low in January, with significant declines reported in key states like Texas, New Mexico, and North Dakota. This drop comes amid a complex landscape of geopolitical tensions, supply concerns, and market volatility. Oil prices have climbed to a five-week high, driven by worries about supplies from Russia and Iran. The energy sector has emerged as a bright spot in the stock market, being the only S&P 500 industry group to rise in March. However, Wall Street banks have cut oil price forecasts due to tariff and geopolitical uncertainties. The Trump administration's push for increased drilling and potential "Liberation Day" tariffs add further complexity to the oil market outlook, with some experts suggesting the energy sector could be a safe investment haven in these turbulent times.
Oil Prices Soar as India Hikes Gas Rates; U.S. Production Data Revised
Oil futures have surged to a five-week high, with U.S. crude rising over $1 per barrel. India has increased natural gas prices from legacy fields for the first time in two years. The EIA revised U.S. oil production data for January, lowering total output estimates but raising natural gas liquids figures. Meanwhile, investors are eyeing dividend stocks in the oil and gas sector, with ConocoPhillips and Patterson-UTI Energy garnering attention.
Oil Prices Face Downward Pressure in 2025 as Demand Outlook Softens, Reuters Poll Shows
A Reuters poll reveals a softer demand outlook for oil in 2025, with Brent crude expected to average $72.94/bbl, down from February's forecast of $74.63. U.S. crude is projected at $69.16/bbl, also lower than previously anticipated. Factors like tariffs, Asian economic slowdown, and surplus fears are pressuring oil prices, while OPEC+ faces challenges in balancing the market.
Slovakia Secures Increased Gas Supply via TurkStream Amid Ukraine Route Closure
Slovakia to receive more Gazprom gas via TurkStream pipeline through Turkey and Hungary, alleviating supply worries after Ukraine route closure. Gazprom plans to increase deliveries from April.
Norway Launches Arctic Oil Production: Johan Castberg Field Goes Live
Norway's Johan Castberg oil field in the Barents Sea has commenced production, marking a significant milestone in Arctic energy development. This $8.1 billion project is set to operate for 30 years, reinforcing Norway's position as a reliable long-term energy supplier.
Iran Seizes Foreign Tankers with Smuggled Fuel
Iran's Revolutionary Guards seized two foreign tankers carrying over three million liters of smuggled diesel fuel, according to state media reports.
Crypto Events
Trump Sons Dive into Bitcoin Mining, Expanding Family's Crypto Empire
The Trump family is expanding its cryptocurrency ventures as Eric Trump and Donald Trump Jr. invest in a bitcoin-mining company. Their business will merge with American Bitcoin, adding to the family's growing portfolio of crypto-related enterprises. This move signals the Trumps' continued push into the digital currency space.
MicroStrategy's Bitcoin Buying Spree: $1.92B Splurge on 22,048 BTC
MicroStrategy aggressively expands its Bitcoin holdings, purchasing 22,048 BTC for $1.92 billion at an average price of $86,969 per coin. This bold move increases their total Bitcoin stash to 528,185 BTC, acquired at an average cost of $67,458 each.
Real Estate Events
Rocket Companies' $9.4B Acquisition of Mr. Cooper Creates Mortgage Powerhouse
Rocket Companies is acquiring Mr. Cooper Group for $9.4 billion in an all-stock deal, merging two major mortgage players. This acquisition gives Rocket control of a $2.1 trillion servicing portfolio, covering nearly 10 million clients, or about one in six U.S. homeowners.
Housing Market Shifts: REITs Offer High Yields as Shelter Inflation Eases, Spring Bargains Anticipated
Housing market dynamics are shifting, with mortgage rates and REITs in focus. Shelter inflation is easing, potentially supporting Fed rate-cut arguments. Investors are eyeing high-yielding REITs, with some offering 6-8% returns. MFA Financial, a mortgage REIT, is adapting to market changes. Despite challenges, the spring housing market may present opportunities for buyers seeking bargains.
China's Housing Market Struggles: March Sales Slump Persists
China's residential sales declined in March, indicating a fragile recovery in the property sector due to sluggish demand.
Technology Events
Apple Hit with €150M Fine in France Over iOS Data Tracking Practices
France's antitrust regulator fined Apple €150 million following an investigation into the company's iOS data collection practices and their impact on advertisers. The probe focused on Apple's user consent process for data tracking.
OpenAI to Unveil Groundbreaking Open-Weight Language Model, Shifting Strategy Amid Competition
OpenAI's CEO Sam Altman announced plans to release a powerful new open-weight language model with reasoning capabilities in the coming months. This marks OpenAI's first open model since GPT-2, amid growing competition from open-source rivals. Altman acknowledged that OpenAI may have been on "the wrong side of history" with its previous approach.
Apple Vision Pro Gets Smarter with visionOS 2.4 Update
Apple releases visionOS 2.4 update for Vision Pro, introducing Apple Intelligence and new spatial experiences to enhance user interaction.
Arm Forecasts Dramatic Rise in Data Center CPU Market Share Amid AI Boom
Arm anticipates a significant boost in data center CPU market share, projecting growth to 50% by year-end 2025. This surge is attributed to increasing AI demand, impacting competitors like NVIDIA, Intel, and AMD.
Legal Events
Elon Musk Given Until June 2025 to Respond to SEC Complaint
Elon Musk and the SEC have jointly filed a motion setting June 6, 2025, as the deadline for Musk to respond to the agency's complaint. This development marks the official start of the countdown for Musk's response to the SEC lawsuit.
Healthcare Events
Corcept's Ovarian Cancer Drug Success Leads Biotech News, While Vaxcyte and Moderna Face Setbacks
Corcept Therapeutics' relacorilant met its primary endpoint in a Phase 3 trial for platinum-resistant ovarian cancer, sending shares soaring. Meanwhile, Vaxcyte's stock tumbled after VAX-24 infant study results. Other companies reported positive outcomes in various clinical trials, including Gyre's cancer drug and BiomX's diabetic foot treatment. Moderna's stock fell amid FDA changes.
Biotech Stocks Plunge Amid FDA Leadership Shakeup and Study Results
Biotech stocks, including Moderna, tumble as FDA's top vaccine regulator Peter Marks reportedly exits. Vaxcyte also falls after Phase 2 study results. Investor concerns over regulatory shifts impact sentiment, particularly for vaccine approvals.
Corporate Actions Events
Lockheed Martin Lands $4.94B Army Deal for Advanced Missile Production
Lockheed Martin secures a massive $4.94 billion contract from the U.S. Army for the production of next-generation Precision Strike Missiles (PRSM), boosting its defense portfolio.
Alphabet's AI Drug Discovery Startup Isomorphic Labs Raises $600M in Landmark Funding Round
Isomorphic Labs, Alphabet's AI-driven drug discovery startup, secures $600 million in external funding. This marks a significant milestone for the Google-backed company in its quest to revolutionize pharmaceutical development using artificial intelligence.
DHL Expands Pharma Logistics with Cryopdp Acquisition
DHL, the German logistics giant, is acquiring U.S. pharmaceutical logistics firm Cryopdp for a sum in the hundreds of millions of euros, expanding its healthcare services.
Brookfield Set to Acquire Colonial Pipeline in $9 Billion-Plus Deal
Brookfield Asset Management is close to acquiring Colonial Pipeline for over $9 billion, including debt, from current owners KKR, Shell, and CDPQ. This major deal could reshape the U.S. energy infrastructure landscape.
U.S. Chipmaker GlobalFoundries Explores Merger with Taiwan's UMC
GlobalFoundries, a major U.S. chipmaker, is considering a merger with United Microelectronics Corporation (UMC), Taiwan's second-largest chipmaker. This potential consolidation aims to strengthen the U.S.-led semiconductor supply chain amid global tensions.
CoreWeave Shares Tumble Post-IPO, NVIDIA Backing Fails to Buoy Stock
CoreWeave's stock price declines significantly on its second day of trading following its IPO, despite support from NVIDIA.
LPL Financial to Acquire Commonwealth for $2.7 Billion
LPL Financial Holdings announces acquisition of Commonwealth Financial Network for approximately $2.7 billion, expanding its financial advisory services portfolio.
Thames Water Taps KKR for Potential Equity Boost
Thames Water selects KKR as the preferred partner for its equity raise, advancing to Phase 2 diligence stage in the company's recapitalization and turnaround efforts.
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🚨 Dogecoin Not Part Of D.O.G.E Plans, Clarifies Elon Musk
Elon Musk has officially extinguished the rumors surrounding Dogecoin and the newly established Department of Government Efficiency, creatively dubbed D.O.G.E. The similarities in the names? Purely coincidental, folks. This isn’t your standard crossover event in the MCU; there’s no planned partnership between Dogecoin and Uncle Sam.
In his most recent town hall meeting in Green Bay, Wisconsin, Musk reassured everyone that despite the internet's playful nudging to rename a boring Government Efficiency Commission to the snappier D.O.G.E., Dogecoin won't be making any government appearances. Picture it this way: two distant cousins who happen to share the same last name but live in entirely different zip codes.
With Dogecoin’s wild ride earlier this year leading to that brief glimmer when D.O.G.E. featured a Dogecoin logo, the speculation reached a fever pitch. But just as quickly as the hype swelled, Musk sliced through with his words at the town hall: no Dogecoin ties here.
Currently, the crypto market feels the ripple effect of Musk's comments, as DOGE sees a dip of about 3.8% amid broader market declines. The speculative drive had pushed DOGE to soar nearly 70% since August. As it stands, DOGE is trading at $0.16. Keep your eyes peeled, memecoin enthusiasts; this market is anything but dull.
memecoin #crypto #solana #Ethereum #ai #bitcoin #cryptocurrency
⚠️ Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice.
Sunday, March 30, 2025
Please critique- interested in what others may have noticed.
I love the stock market. It’s the largest, most complex puzzle in the world. It’s a game that’s impossible to ‘beat’ completely, but gifted observers are still rewarded with a pure, measured amount: returns. Asset classes each have their own function and best-use case within the market, and you ‘win’ if you buy them before everyone else buys them. My favorite thing? It’s all probability. Nothing is certain, and nobody can pretend it is, like they can in the real world. The stock market is honestly random.
My methodology at this impossible game is similar to that of a detective trying to solve a crime. If I’m presented with a fact, any fact, say, “The FED is lowering rates,” there are perhaps ten, twelve, or twenty, or a thousand explanations for why they might be doing such a thing. Maybe they think inflation has burned off and want to start a rally. Maybe they think a recession is about to start and want the fiat-pump-dump economy to have one last gasp. Maybe Jerome Powell misspoke at the meeting.
You can’t possibly make a decision based on one event. But when you have another event, say, Costco cutting their prices 40%, and the price of eggs falling after an insane high, then the number of likely reasons for the first event has to line up with the reasons that caused the second event too, because the truth, though it will never really be attained, caused them both. Add a thousand events, a thousand individual circumstances, and a blurry picture emerges. As time passes, add other explanations fall away, and the blurry picture sharpens.
I observe all the time. I cannot turn it off. If I walk past a pickup truck on the street, I’ll notice that it’s parked in front of a factory in New Hampshire. From that, I’ll think it’s likely that the wages are not high, probably less than 100k per year. Then I notice the pickup truck is a nice, new model, one that easily cost 100k, or 70k. From that, I’ll think that the person is likely in debt. Then I’ll walk past a billboard, and it advertises a credit union. I wonder to myself how many people actually know what a credit union is.
These individual facts don’t help much. Big determiners, like tariffs, rate cuts, and yield curve graphs narrow the odds much more considerably, and this is what will be focused on.
Take the example of the eggs. The price of eggs skyrocketed to $9 because of bird flu. Then they fell, again, to $4. I assumed that they had solved the bird flu issue, but then happened to come across information that indicated the prices did not fall because of bird flu. They fell because consumers were no longer able to pay for them. That’s right- Americans ruled out eggs in the grocery cart because they cost $9. Combine that with a tidbit I picked up that said Costco was cutting its prices 40%, and that Walmart, which normally does very well during pricey times, had low customer volumes, as did the rest of the sector, during the holidays. If things are too expensive, then people go to Walmart to buy gifts. But this year, they didn’t. Retailers braced for christmas shopping, and no christmas shopping came. $9 eggs and Walmart gifts stacked on shelves. The price wasn’t just too high- it was broken. But I’m getting ahead of myself.
To explain this fully, I need to start with the key breadcrumbs — beginning about a year ago. I rewatched The Big Short, and on a whim, decided to check the major banks’ exposure to credit card debt. Right away, I found something disturbing: banks are still dealing in tranched debt assets. But instead of mortgages, they're using credit cards. The same structure. Different packaging.
I tried digging deeper, even with access to a Bloomberg terminal, but hit a wall. The system locked me out unless I shelled out $50,000 and registered as a financial institution. So I pivoted. I focused on macro data instead, indirect indicators of just how rotten things already were.What I found wasn’t pretty. Consumer debt is skyrocketing. Savings are zeroing out. It’s not just theoretical. Every day, I see signs of consumer capitulation.
Thus was born my first thesis: there would be a crash. Not from mortgages this time, but from the general irresponsibility built on any kind of debt you can think of. I couldn’t pinpoint the maturations, so I gave it a rough window: ten years.
Another critical datapoint is the government’s $30 trillion debt. Though let’s be honest, we probably don’t even know the real number. That figure has been snowballing for decades, the result of a system addicted to borrowing. It’s the numeric form of screwing over the next guy in charge. It’s a game of hot potato, where each administration prays the music stops under someone else.
Last time the banks got fancy with credit, the government stepped in and restarted the system. Whether they’ll do it again is unclear. That depends on the madness of men. But one thing seems likely. The sheer size of the debt now makes it less likely they’ll print. In 2008, they had room. After COVID, they printed again. But near the ceiling? They might not be able to. More on that later.
COVID was another major determiner. It was the perfect, sudden, hard acceleration of inflation exactly what we didn’t need. It exposed the inflation that had been lurking on balance sheets since the 2008 money-printing spree. You can’t inject that much liquidity into a system and expect no consequences. You can dress it up with accounting tricks to make inflation look tame, but if the money supply grows faster than the economy, the inflation is just waiting. COVID sped up the timeline. It hit consumers hard and triggered another round of printing. That was the moment the long fuse got shorter. These three major determiners kept my crash forecast at a likely ten years or less. Until I had more information, I could not narrow it down further.
A third factor is sky-high P/E ratios across the US stock market in growth stocks, coupled with a toxic business philosophy. The conventional wisdom is that in order to earn new investors, companies have to beat earnings and revenue every single year. They have risen to the challenge, but in the last few years, have been stretching and stretching to earn Wall Street’s favor, earning growth stocks a very high P/E ratio- and pushing an already struggling consumer harder every year. These so-called “growth” stocks have very far to fall- so far that Warren Buffet pulled into cash, and Michael Burry went to China. When Buffet pulled out of major indices, that was a very, very bad sign. The iconic value investor has stated, with this move, that no value is left to be found, and wordlessly pulled into cash.
Then the new information came, and it sped up my timeline considerably: the yield curve re-inverted.
The yield curve, the spread between the 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields, has predicted every recession since World War II except for 1966. It has been deeply inverted since October 2022. This is now the longest yield curve inversion in history.
When the curve re-inverts, flipping from inverted back to normal, it is not a relief. It is an alarm. Historically, it signals that something very bad is about to happen. The curve re-inverted in July 2007, November 1989, and again in February 2025. Each time, a recession followed within a year, often sooner. This was the signal I had been waiting for. Now the rest of the picture had to line up. After the election of Donald Trump, assets and especially U.S. equities rallied. Then came the tariffs. First floated as a negotiation tool, then actually implemented. That tightened my timeline further. I expected markets to react badly at first, forget about it, and then crash once the tariffs showed up in earnings reports. That explains the bizarre sideways action we are seeing now. This is classic bad sentiment. Retail investors are backing off. Institutions are repositioning. We are not crashing yet. We are leaking. So where are the institutions and ultra-wealthy moving? Bitcoin. And yet, despite being the dream of every Bitcoin holder, it is moving sideways. Odd.
The institutions, including the US government, moving into bitcoin, now of all times, as all the traditional analysts throw up their hands, is very strange. This is because there are very few realities that could cause these two events- which are diametrically opposed. One explanation is the institutions are readying themselves for the largest rug-pull that the retailers have ever seen. Another explanation is that institutions know something we don’t, and are already getting one foot in the door before something, whatever it is, blows a major gasket, and the US either prints or fails to print. Central banks and countries are also madly buying gold, so much gold that it caused drama with the London exchange paper gold market. This vanished from the news fairly quickly- but I remembered it.
I see many complaints about the cutting of essential government departments, foreign aid, and other things from the government. This is causing all hell to break loose, as the largest employer of the largest economy hemorrhages employees, who will soon have to draw their savings out of banks to pay rent and buy food. Those banks will have to decrease their position sizes, and the snowball will roll on. Jobs are one the most important indicators of crashes, and the job data is some of the least helpful, because it has long been badly measured. The unemployment rate has ceased to be a good measure of recession, but the US government firing workers at this rate will not be good for the consumer.
Why would the government be firing and cutting this frantically? Either they are draconian and heartless, or they are draconian and heartless and panicked, because we actually couldn’t afford any of it to begin with. Either way, in about a year, I figured the firings would start forcing people to pull from their savings in the bank, which will force the banks to exit their positions and maybe start runs. When the employer of last resort starts laying off, the cycle is near death.
After I saw the yield reinversion and layoffs, I tightened my timeline to a year. Then came another major determiner- NVDA earnings. NVDA beat earnings, again, because it has solid fundamentals and is still firmly cemented as the AI profiteer. But it sold off anyway, just like many major earnings sold off in winter around the holiday absence of shopping. This was a major tell- if good news becomes bad, and bad news becomes bad, then I considered my timeline tightened again, to eight months, or seven. Then, tariff concerns hit hard, and I thought the crash was here. NVDA stumbles, and the rest of the herd falls.
I was wrong- we have ground sideways for a month now, and that in and of itself is new information. It means that a mere crisis in confidence caused by tariffs is not enough to push the boulder, else we would have been crashing already now, and I wouldn’t need to write this thesis. After I braced, and the crash didn’t come, I realized that this was very similar to 2008, again. There was an odd grind sideways, where the S&P tries to reach higher highs, but fails, three times or so, followed by a period of sell-offs. The crash in 2008 wasn’t caused by these crises in confidence- or even by the credit bomb exploding with the collapse of Bear Stearns in March. It was caused by a sudden collapse in confidence in October.
Why October?
Well. Who ever feels good in October?
Traders have long known October as the month when the market gets cold feet. It’s not just folklore — look it up. The biggest crashes cluster there. October 1929. October 1987. October 2008. Something always seems to break. At first glance, it seems arbitrary. But after reading The Hour Between Dog and Wolf, it didn’t feel arbitrary at all. That book makes the case that markets are ruled by biology as much as logic. Cortisol, adrenaline, testosterone — they shape risk appetite, mood, behavior. In spring and summer, testosterone tends to rise, along with market confidence. But by fall, those levels drop, and cortisol takes over. Fear has a season. Maybe October really is wired into the system. Still, timing a collapse is a fool’s game. It could be November. Could be December. But you couldn’t catch me dead in any assets during October 2025.
One piece of information I’m still waiting on is the rate cut expected this summer. Jerome Powell is getting pressure from all sides. Trump is hammering him to lower rates to make room for his vision of a new America. Investors are begging for cuts so they can keep funneling money into the stock market.
Powell, for his part, insists that the money printing in 2008 and during COVID means rates should stay high, maybe for a long time. But he knows he can’t follow through on that without triggering a crash. Raising rates now would be an admission that the data has been lying, that inflation never really left, and that the entire market is overleveraged. If he goes that route, investors will sell. Fast.
So for now, Powell holds steady. He keeps rates unchanged and pretends everything is fine, that Americans not buying eggs is somehow normal. But he can’t stall forever. Once the tariff noise fades, markets will look for the next excuse to climb, the next catalyst for another euphoric leg up. And Powell will give it to them.
He’ll concede with a small rate cut this summer, just enough to buy a little more time, calm the noise, and try not to blow up the whole machine.
I’ll be taking that rate cut, whenever it comes, as a klaxon alarm. It will be the final chance to sell into strength, because most investors will see it as the start of a new Trump rally. But I won’t. I’ll see it for what it is: Powell playing the only card he has left.
Behind the scenes, institutions will be exiting through their dark pools like never before. Quietly, efficiently, ahead of the crowd.
Rate cuts after a yield curve inversion aren’t the green light everyone thinks they are. They don’t signal recovery. They signal desperation, a last-ditch effort to pull up a plane that’s already nosediving.
As of this writing, my thesis and my portfolio are positioned for a period of sideways movement in the short term. I plan to exit all U.S. equities during the spring or summer rally, likely around the time of the rate cut. After that, I expect continued chop through the summer, followed by another bull trap in early fall. It may be weaker than the last. Then comes the crash. October is the most likely window, but it could stretch into November or December. It probably won’t wait much longer.
In the near term, the only clear winner is gold. Bitcoin, tech stocks, U.S. equities, and foreign markets will all struggle. Spring will bring a strong buy-the-dip rally. Prices will rise, possibly near or above previous highs. But that surge will not hold. It will be the second-to-last move before reality sets in. This also gives time for the Bitcoin cycle to play out, and then finish…right around October.
As summer drags on and the rally fails to break new ground, fear will return. We will see a quiet, indecisive market. It will feel like the summer before 2008. No momentum. No conviction. Just drift.
If a rate cut comes during this period, it might trigger one more upward move. Otherwise, markets will hang in suspension, waiting.
And in autumn, the illusion will break. Investors will realize the last push is over. The exit rush begins. Markets will sell off sharply in a full-blown flight to cash.
After the crash, new winners will emerge. The recovery will be sharp and fast, a true V-shape, as inflation comes roaring back. It never really left after COVID. We just buried it under credit cards and corporate balance sheets.
Everyone who fled to cash will suddenly realize the problem. Prices are soaring, and their money is shrinking. They’ll rush back into assets, desperate not to get left behind. If the U.S. prints, inflation will spike, and commodities will take off. If they don’t print, and instead begin the long, painful recovery we’ve delayed since leaving the gold standard, trust in the dollar will collapse — and commodities will still take off.
Gold will rise. Bitcoin, by then decoupled from the S&P, will soar. Both will leave traditional assets behind. U.S. equities and foreign markets might recover, or they might not. It will all depend on how shaken the world is after the crash.
This market has been downright bizarre. Unexplainable. Most people gave up trying to make sense of it long before I did — and I don’t blame them. It’s the most complex game on the planet, and there are machines far better at it than any of us. But what I don’t see are people updating their models to account for what doesn’t make sense. I see them rejecting it, dismissing it, pretending the confusion itself isn’t worth addressing.
It reminds me of the Bitcoin critics. They say it has no value. That’s true — in the way all currencies are true. It has the value we assign to it. And that value is about to explode. Because Bitcoin, for all the attempts to label it as a risk-on asset, as a meme, is a meme with no connection to the U.S. economy. It is tethered only to code.
The usual criticisms — energy use, fraud, transaction speed — once valid, are about to look like minor inconveniences. Bitcoin was created as a response to 2008. And this is starting to look like the version of 2008 we can’t print our way out of.
Yes, the U.S. dollar is still strong. It’s backed by the largest economy in the world, an economy that’s insulated and backed by a serious military. But that economy is now led by a government centralizing control and bracing for something ugly. I’m not sure yet if they are like Tsar Nicholas II, and have no clue what’s coming, or have inside information. That will be clear if we start to see our first trillionaires.
The US economy has been strong, the pump so long, fueled off the fumes of 2008 and COVID, that nobody can conceptualize that you might prefer an asset not connected to the US, even as the US begins its downturn into insanity. The world’s reserve currency has been running the world’s fiat game for a long, long time.
Note- bad times, not end times. The US is still the state best positioned in the globe, with deep resources, ports, and military immunity. The dollar is by no means dead- it will need rehabilitation, and it should not be surprising that other currencies will take up the mantle. US equities will do well, after either a lost decade or more steady growth, though I believe a lost decade to be more likely.
Traditional analysts aren’t just conflicting in their explanations- they’re confused. They’re trying to solve for stability, using past performance, in a system that is inherently unstable. This is why they will miss the mark, just like they did in 2008. They have good logic, and rotten premises. They’re debating interior design, but the house is on fire.
Why? Why did it end this way?
People don’t like reading the fine print.
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