Thursday, October 9, 2025

Fed Meeting Minutes Coming Thursday, What Rate Cut Signals Mean for Crypto Markets

The Fed is gearing up to release its meeting minutes Thursday, and crypto markets are watching closely for clues about future policy direction.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell recently emphasized that “considerable uncertainty remains” as the central bank balances risks between cooling inflation and preserving a strong labor market. This makes rate decisions more nuanced than usual.

Bitcoin sits near $122,400 with the broader crypto market capitalization hovering around $2.44 trillion. The past week saw about a 4.3% gain, indicating traders may already be positioning ahead of the Fed’s signals.

The link between interest rates and crypto is well established. Lower rates tend to make borrowing cheaper and push capital into assets with upside potential, including digital assets. Conversely, high rates often divert money toward yield-bearing instruments.

If the minutes hint at upcoming cuts, crypto could benefit from increased liquidity and positive sentiment. But if officials remain divided or cautious, markets may react with volatility as participants adjust expectations.

Altcoins often mirror Bitcoin’s macro moves, sometimes with exaggerated swings, so their direction will likely follow. One on-chain signal to watch is transaction volume. If rate cuts look more likely, increased network activity often follows in past cycles.

The 4.3% weekly gain suggests bullish bias is creeping in, but markets are still vulnerable until the minutes confirm the direction.

Either way, increased volatility means more trades, and more taxable events, something most traders forget until tax season. Platforms like Awaken. tax automatically track transactions and realized gains across exchanges and wallets, so you’re not scrambling through spreadsheets later.

At the end of the day, cuts don’t operate in a vacuum. If easing comes amid economic weakening, that could dampen the upside. But if it happens after inflation is under control, it could signal a strong regime shift for risk assets. Markets tend to price in moves ahead of time, so this Thursday’s release could spark big short term reactions.


The Daily Market Flux - Your Complete Market Rundown (10/09/2025)

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Here is Your Complete Market Rundown (10/09/2025)

Company News

Nvidia Corporation (NVDA)

Performance Overview

1D Change:  1.86%

5D Change:  1.95%

News Volume:  203

Unusual Volume Factor:  1x

Nvidia Soars to Record High as U.S. Approves UAE Chip Sales, Analysts Bullish on AI Growth

Nvidia Corporation has made significant strides in the AI and semiconductor industry, with several key developments occurring on October 9, 2025. The most notable news is the U.S. government's approval of several billion dollars worth of Nvidia chip exports to the United Arab Emirates (UAE), marking a significant step in President Trump's AI diplomacy efforts. This move is part of a broader agreement tied to the UAE's plan to invest $1.4 trillion in the U.S. over the next decade.

Full coverage of $NVDA on MarketFlux.io

Delta Air Lines, Inc. (DAL)

Performance Overview

1D Change:  4.24%

5D Change:  4.34%

News Volume:  174

Unusual Volume Factor:  14x

Delta Air Lines Soars on Strong Q3 Earnings, Raises Outlook as Premium Travel Demand Accelerates

Delta Air Lines reported strong third-quarter results for 2025, surpassing expectations and signaling robust travel demand heading into the holiday season and beyond. The airline's adjusted earnings per share of $1.71 beat analyst estimates of $1.53, while revenue reached $15.2 billion, exceeding the projected $15.05 billion.

Full coverage of $DAL on MarketFlux.io

Alphabet Inc. (GOOG)

Performance Overview

1D Change:  -1.34%

5D Change:  -1.71%

News Volume:  196

Unusual Volume Factor:  2x

Google Launches Gemini Enterprise, Expands Partnerships Amid AI Push and Cybersecurity Concerns

Google has made significant strides in the AI and cloud computing sectors, launching several new initiatives and partnerships. The company introduced Gemini Enterprise, a unified AI suite that combines Gemini 2.5 models with no-code tools and connectors for various business applications. This platform is designed to compete with offerings from Microsoft and OpenAI in the enterprise AI market, with pricing starting at $21 per user.

Full coverage of $GOOG on MarketFlux.io

Pepsico, Inc. (PEP)

Performance Overview

1D Change:  4.32%

5D Change:  1.7%

PepsiCo Beats Earnings Estimates, Announces Strategic Overhaul and New CFO Amid Market Challenges

PepsiCo, the global beverage and snack giant, has reported its third-quarter earnings for 2025, beating Wall Street expectations despite facing challenges in its North American market. The company posted revenue of $23.94 billion, slightly above the estimated $23.86 billion, and core earnings per share of $2.29, surpassing the expected $2.26.

Full coverage of $PEP on MarketFlux.io

Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST)

Performance Overview

1D Change:  3.07%

5D Change:  2.85%

Costco Stock Surges on Strong September Sales, Analysts Divided on Future Growth

Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST) has captured the market's attention with its impressive September sales performance. The company reported an 8% year-over-year increase in sales for the five weeks ending October 5, beating analysts' estimates. This growth was particularly bolstered by strong digital demand, showcasing Costco's successful adaptation to evolving consumer preferences.

Full coverage of $COST on MarketFlux.io

Other News

Geopolitics Events

Israel and Hamas Agree to Ceasefire and Hostage Exchange in Trump-Brokered Deal, Marking First Step Towards Gaza Peace

In a major breakthrough, Israel and Hamas have agreed to a ceasefire and hostage deal, marking the first phase of US President Donald Trump's plan to end the two-year war in Gaza. The agreement, brokered by Trump's administration, includes the release of all hostages held in Gaza in exchange for about 2,000 jailed Palestinians. The ceasefire has officially gone into effect, with Israel's deputy foreign minister confirming its implementation.

Trump Hints at Major Trade Shift with China, Delegates Export Control Review

President Trump addresses China trade relations, suggesting potential import restrictions. He mentions the possibility of halting massive imports from China and discusses export controls.

Trump Targets Democratic Programs for Permanent Cuts Amid Shutdown

President Trump announces plans for permanent cuts to Democratic programs during the ongoing government shutdown.

Government Shutdown Persists as Conservative Split Deepens Over Trump's Economic Policies

The ongoing government shutdown continues to dominate U.S. political discourse. House Speaker Johnson and Minority Leader Jeffries remain at odds, with both parties blaming each other for the impasse. Johnson revealed he and President Trump lamented the "terrible" situation.

European Parliament Backs Von der Leyen as U.S. Shutdown Strains Air Travel

The European Parliament has rejected two motions of censure against European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, failing to garner sufficient support.

Trump's Influence Ripples Through Markets as Companies Align with Administration

Rare-earth stocks rally as China prepares for a trade meeting with Trump. GoodRx's stock rises amid talks of joining TrumpRx, sparking investor interest.

US Government Shutdown Enters Second Week as Political Deadlock Intensifies

The US government shutdown has entered its second week, with no resolution in sight. House Speaker Johnson and President Trump have lamented the situation, while Republican and Democratic leaders continue to blame each other for the impasse.

Trump Declares Gaza War Over, Hostage Release Imminent

President Trump announces a significant breakthrough in the Gaza conflict. He declares the war's end and a ceasefire in effect, with hostages expected to be released on Monday or Tuesday.

Modi and Trump Discuss Trade Progress, Gaza Peace Plan in Phone Call

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and US President Donald Trump held a significant phone call today. Modi congratulated Trump on the success of the Gaza Peace Plan, marking a diplomatic milestone.

Air Travel Chaos Mounts as Government Shutdown Persists, Pressuring Congress

The ongoing government shutdown is causing significant disruptions to air travel across the United States. Flight delays and cancellations are becoming more frequent, with passengers facing a tenfold increase in the likelihood of staff shortage-related delays.

Trump Predicts Dramatic Drop in US Gas Prices

President Trump makes a bold claim about gasoline prices, stating they will drop below $2 per gallon soon.

Senate Deadlocked as Shutdown Bills Fail, Trump Criticizes Democrats

Republican and Democratic bills to end the U.S. government shutdown are failing to secure enough votes in the Senate. Voting continues.

NATO Considers Armed Response as Putin Expands Hybrid Warfare to Baltic Sea

Russia's hybrid warfare tactics against Europe are escalating, with Putin adapting land-based strategies to disrupt the Baltic Sea. NATO is considering an armed response to counter these threats.

Senate Rejects Funding Bill as Government Shutdown Persists

The U.S. Senate has rejected a Republican-proposed government funding bill, failing to pass the measure as the government shutdown enters its ninth day.

Trump Proposes NATO Expulsion for Spain Over Defense Spending

President Trump suggests expelling Spain from NATO due to low defense spending. He repeatedly floats the idea of removing Spain from the alliance, stating, "Maybe you should throw them out of NATO, frankly."

US Considers Crackdown on Chinese Router Maker TP-Link

The Trump administration is contemplating significant restrictions on TP-Link Systems, a China-connected router giant with popular Wi-Fi equipment in the US market.

Technology Events

AI Boom Sparks Innovation and Caution Across Tech Landscape

AI Boom Drives TSMC's Record Revenue, Sparks Bubble Concerns Amid Market Enthusiasm

The AI boom continues to dominate financial news, with both enthusiasm and caution evident in the market. TSMC, the world's largest contract chipmaker, reported a remarkable 30% year-over-year increase in Q3 revenue, surpassing $32 billion. This surge is primarily attributed to AI-driven demand from customers like Nvidia and Apple, offsetting weaker consumer electronics chip sales.

Tech Giants and Startups Compete for AI Dominance as Market Concerns Grow

The AI landscape is buzzing with activity as tech giants and startups vie for dominance in this rapidly evolving field. Google has made significant moves, introducing an AI-powered conversational platform for enterprises and partnering with Figma to expand AI-powered design tools. The company is also collaborating with Gap to boost retail brands through a unified AI platform.

Google Challenges AI Market with Gemini Enterprise Launch

Google Cloud unveils Gemini Enterprise, an AI platform competing with Microsoft and OpenAI. The launch includes subscriptions for corporate workers to build AI agents.

Intel Unveils Panther Lake: Revolutionary AI PC Platform Set to Dominate 2026 Market

Intel has unveiled its groundbreaking Panther Lake architecture, the first AI PC platform built on the advanced 18A process. This new generation of processors promises over 50% faster CPU performance compared to its predecessor.

Google Exposes Massive Oracle-Related Hack, Customer Data Compromised

Google reveals a major cybersecurity breach involving Oracle software. Hackers targeted Oracle technology, affecting dozens of organizations and stealing massive amounts of customer data.

DoorDash Teams Up with Serve Robotics, Boosting Autonomous Delivery and Stock Price

DoorDash partners with Serve Robotics for autonomous deliveries across the US, expanding their reach.

Tesla Unveils Plans for Extended Range 'Model Y+' in China

Tesla has registered plans for a new long-range version of its Model Y electric vehicle with China's Industry Ministry.

AI Investing Sparks Excitement and Caution as Market Braces for Potential Impact

AI investing is generating both promise and hype, with experts warning of potential market-wide impacts if the bubble bursts.

US EV Charger Network Expands Rapidly as Tesla Faces Safety Probe

The US is experiencing a record-breaking expansion of its EV charging network, despite cuts to electric vehicle incentives. This growth underscores the country's commitment to sustainable transportation.

Microsoft Faces Extended Data Center Shortages, Forecasts Show

Microsoft's data-center shortages are expected to continue longer than previously anticipated. The company's forecasts indicate that the crunch will persist into 2026, extending beyond earlier projections.

Environment Events

Trump Brokers Gaza Ceasefire Deal, Hamas Declares War's End

In a groundbreaking development, Hamas has declared an end to the Gaza war and the beginning of a permanent ceasefire. This announcement comes after intense negotiations mediated by the United States under President Donald Trump's administration.

Misc Events

US Launches Major Probe into Tesla's Self-Driving System

The U.S. National Highway Traffic Safety Administration has launched an investigation into nearly 2.9 million Tesla vehicles. The probe focuses on traffic safety violations occurring when the Full Self-Driving (FSD) system is engaged.

House Speaker Pushes for Government Reopening to Tackle Healthcare, as Small Businesses Struggle with Costs

US House Speaker Johnson emphasizes the need to reopen the government to address healthcare issues. This statement highlights the urgency of the current government shutdown situation.

Baytex Energy Mulls $3 Billion Sale of US Operations to Focus on Canadian Assets

Baytex Energy, a Canadian oil and gas producer, is considering selling its US operations in the Eagle Ford shale of south Texas.

DOJ Investigates Auto Parts Maker's Bankruptcy Amid Billion-Dollar Losses

The U.S. Department of Justice has launched an inquiry into the collapse of First Brands Group, an auto parts maker.

GoodRx and Retail Pharmacies Negotiate TrumpRx Participation as Shares Soar

GoodRx and retail pharmacies are in talks with the Trump administration to participate in TrumpRx, a new platform offering significant drug discounts.

Natural Gas Storage Exceeds Expectations, Energy Stocks Show Mixed Performance

U.S. natural gas futures gained ahead of inventory data release. The actual storage figure of 80B surpassed forecasts, suggesting weaker demand.

China Restricts Rare Earth Exports, Mining Stocks Soar

China tightens export controls on rare earth elements and related technologies, targeting defense exports. This move strengthens China's grip on the crucial industry.

Von der Leyen Overcomes Double No-Confidence Challenge in EU Parliament

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen survives two no-confidence votes in the European Parliament. Both censure motions fail to garner sufficient support and are rejected.

Ferrari Stock Crashes on Disappointing Outlook

Ferrari's stock plummets in its worst day ever following disappointing 2030 outlook at capital markets day.

Lloyds Bank Braces for Significant Car Loan Compensation Provision

Lloyds Bank warns of a potential "material" provision to compensate customers missold car loans.

Earnings Events

TSMC Beats Q3 Revenue Expectations, Shows Signs of Slowing Growth

TSMC, the semiconductor giant, has released its Q3 financial results, surpassing market expectations. The company reported Q3 revenue of NT$989.92 billion, exceeding the forecast of NT$973.26 billion.

Stock Markets Events

U.S. Stocks Waver Near Record Highs as Earnings Season Kicks Off

In the early hours of October 9, 2025, the U.S. stock market showed mixed signals as traders digested a flurry of earnings reports and corporate news. The day began with RBC Capital Markets highlighting top restaurant stocks to watch, while insider activity from the previous day caught investors' attention.

Major U.S. Stock Indexes Retreat from Record Highs, Dow Sheds Over 240 Points

U.S. stock markets retreated from record highs set the previous day. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed over 240 points lower, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq also pulled back.

Alliance Laundry Shares Surge in NYSE Debut

Alliance Laundry Holdings, owner of Speed Queen, makes a strong debut on the NYSE. Shares open at $24.50, significantly above the IPO price of $22, indicating investor enthusiasm.

Macro Events

Fed Official Urges Caution on Rate Cuts, Warns of Persistent Inflation Risks

Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr has called for a cautious approach to further interest rate cuts, citing significant uncertainties surrounding both inflation and employment. Barr emphasized that the Fed's inflation goal faces substantial risks, although some factors might help mitigate these concerns.

NY Fed's Williams Backs Rate Cuts, Sees Muted Tariff Impact on Inflation

New York Federal Reserve President John Williams has made several key statements regarding monetary policy and economic outlook. He supports further interest rate cuts this year, deeming it appropriate for rates to return to a neutral setting. Williams believes the effects of tariffs have been slightly less impactful than anticipated.

Japan's Economic Adviser Calls for Caution on BoJ Rate Hikes, Forecasts Yen Stability

An adviser to Japan's Takaichi, Honda, urges caution regarding BoJ interest rate hikes. The timing of the next rate increase remains uncertain, but Takaichi is expected to be cautious.

Japan's Takaichi Sees No Urgent Need for BoJ Policy Shift, Emphasizes Demand-Led Inflation

Japan's LDP leader Takaichi addresses economic concerns, stating there's no immediate need to revise the government-Bank of Japan joint agreement.

U.S. Ramps Up Sanctions on Iran's Oil Trade, Targeting Over 50 Entities Globally

The U.S. Treasury Department has intensified its "maximum pressure" campaign against Iran by imposing new sanctions on over 50 individuals, entities, and vessels involved in facilitating Iranian oil and liquefied petroleum gas exports.

Central Banks Grapple with Uncertainty as Inflation Concerns Persist

The European Central Bank's (ECB) latest minutes reveal a cautious approach to monetary policy amid heightened uncertainty. Several members view inflation risks as tilted to the downside, with no immediate pressure to change policy rates. The ECB emphasizes that policy shouldn't be fine-tuned for moderate inflation fluctuations around the target.

German Trade Balance Widens Despite Export Decline; Norway PPI Falls

German trade data shows mixed results. Exports fell 0.5% month-over-month, missing forecasts, while imports declined 1.3%, exceeding expectations.

Fed's Barr Assesses Monetary Policy as Modestly Restrictive, Highlights Smooth Balance Sheet Runoff

Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr shared insights on current monetary policy. He stated that the policy is modestly restrictive, but would be quite restrictive if measured against a long-term neutral rate benchmark.

Oil And Gas Events

Oil Prices Plunge Following Gaza Ceasefire Agreement

Oil prices tumble as Gaza ceasefire deal emerges. Brent settles at $65.22/bbl, down 1.55%, while US crude falls to $61.51/barrel, a 1.66% drop.

BP Triumphs in LNG Arbitration, Venture Global Stock Tumbles

BP has won an arbitration case against Venture Global regarding LNG cargoes. This unexpected defeat for Venture Global comes just weeks after their victory in a similar dispute with Shell.

Trump Predicts Dramatic Drop in US Gas Prices

President Trump makes a bold claim about gasoline prices, stating they will drop below $2 per gallon soon.

Metals Events

Silver Skyrockets to Historic $50 Mark, Shattering Decades-Old Records

In a historic market event, spot silver has surged to unprecedented levels, breaking through the $50 per ounce barrier for the first time ever. This milestone marks silver's highest price in decades, surpassing previous records and sparking intense interest among investors and market watchers.

Corporate Actions Events

Novo Nordisk Acquires Akero Therapeutics in Multi-Billion Dollar Deal

Novo Nordisk announces acquisition of Akero Therapeutics for $4.7 billion in cash, or $54 per share.

Citigroup Turns Down Grupo Mexico's Multibillion-Dollar Offer for Banamex

Citigroup has rejected Grupo Mexico's $9.3 billion bid to acquire its Banamex unit. The offer, made by mining magnate German Larrea's conglomerate, was turned down by Citi for its Mexican banking business.

Linamar Acquires Aludyne's North American Operations in $300 Million Deal

Linamar Corporation is set to acquire Aludyne's North American assets and operations for $300 million.

Currencies Events

US Finalizes $20 Billion Currency Swap with Argentina, Purchases Pesos

The US Treasury has finalized a $20 billion currency swap agreement with Argentina's central bank. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced the deal on social media, emphasizing US support for Argentina's economy.

Japanese Minister Cautions Against Excessive Yen Decline, Highlighting Currency's Double-Edged Impact

Japan's Internal Affairs & Communications Minister Takaichi has made several statements regarding the yen's value. She emphasized that there is no intention to trigger an excessively weak yen, acknowledging both benefits and drawbacks of a weaker currency.

Healthcare Events

Biotech Firms Report Breakthroughs and Stock Gains Amid Wave of Medical Innovations

In a flurry of biotech and medical advancements, several companies have made significant strides. Editas Medicine reported impressive results in LDL-C reduction and presented data for EDIT-401. Harvard Medical School licensed health content to Microsoft, while the ICPO Foundation expanded its global network of Theranostics Centers.

Regeneron's Skin Cancer Drug Approved as Oncology Research Advances Across Multiple Fronts

In a significant development for skin cancer patients, Regeneron's Libtayo has received FDA approval to reduce recurrence risk. Meanwhile, Quince Therapeutics presented A-T walking capacity data at a neurology meeting, showcasing advancements in neurological research.

Fixed Income And Interest Rates Events

Japan's Economic Adviser Calls for Caution on BoJ Rate Hikes, Forecasts Yen Stability

An adviser to Japan's Takaichi, Honda, urges caution regarding BoJ interest rate hikes. The timing of the next rate increase remains uncertain, but Takaichi is expected to be cautious.

Treasury's 30-Year Bond Auction Sees Higher Yield, Strong Non-Dealer Participation

The U.S. Treasury held a $22 billion auction for 30-year bonds today. The high yield rate came in at 4.734%, higher than the previous 4.651%. The bid-to-cover ratio remained steady at 2.38.

Other Events

Government Shutdown Intensifies: IRS Furloughs Staff, Charities Prepare, and Businesses Feel the Pinch

The US government shutdown enters its ninth day, causing widespread disruption across federal agencies. The IRS has announced the furlough of 34,000 employees, representing 46% of its staff. President Trump assures that most affected federal workers will receive back pay, though this remains uncertain.

NY Attorney General Letitia James Indicted for Bank Fraud

New York Attorney General Letitia James, known for her legal battles against Trump, has been indicted on criminal bank fraud charges by a Virginia federal grand jury.

Analyst Ratings Events

Analyst Predicts Nvidia Could Hit $7 Trillion Valuation, Dismissing Bubble Fears

Wall Street analyst bullishly predicts Nvidia could reach a $7 trillion market cap. The optimistic forecast dismisses bubble concerns, describing Nvidia's stock as "born to run."

Crypto Events

Bitcoin Wavers Around $122K Amid Breakout Hopes and Volatility Concerns

Bitcoin's price fluctuates near $122,000, with analysts eyeing a potential breakout to $137,000. However, renewed volatility fears emerge due to Fed signals and a strengthening dollar.


Your Daily Bitcoin Breakdown newsletter is now live. Check out today’s Top Stories and a sneak peek at the latest Opinion & Analysis pieces. Full issue link is in the comments.

https://www.reddit.com/gallery/1o2ie0f

Correlations Between GME’s Price Rises and Fund-Owned Swaps

Explaining these swaps: The Swaps are at the end of the DD.

Correlations Between GameStop Stock Price Rises and Fund-Owned Swaps

Hey folks…building on our chat about swaps, let's connect the dots between those wild GameStop (GME) stock surges and the swaps in the data you shared. I'll keep it straightforward: Swaps (especially equity swaps and CFDs) are like hidden bets on GME's price, often used by funds to short (bet against) the stock without directly borrowing shares. When GME's price skyrockets—triggering squeezes—these shorts can lead to big losses for the funds, shown as negative values in the filings. This creates a feedback loop: rising prices force swaps to pay out more, potentially amplifying the squeeze as counterparties (like banks) hedge by buying actual shares.

I'll draw from the data (NPORT-P filings from 2020–2025), the Reddit DD (which dives into how swaps enable "synthetic" shorting via foreign exchanges and total return swaps), and broader GME history. Key theme from the Reddit post: Funds use swaps/CFDs to dodge U.S. reporting rules (e.g., Regulation SHO), misreport shorts as longs, and pile on hidden short exposure—making squeezes hit harder when prices rise unexpectedly.

Quick Recap: GME's Major Price Rises (2020–2025)

GME's history is meme-fueled chaos. Here's a timeline of key surges, based on historical data (e.g., all-time high of $86.88 close on Jan 27, 2021; recent close ~$24.93 as of Sep 12, 2025). These often stemmed from retail buying, gamma squeezes (options hedging), and short covering.

| Period | Key Events & Price Surge | % Gain (Approx.) | Drivers |

| Aug–Sep 2020 | Pre-squeeze buildup: Stock climbs from ~$4 to ~$10. | +150% | Keith Gill (Roaring Kitty) starts posting on Reddit; early retail interest sparks buying.

| Jan 2021 | Epic short squeeze: $17 (Jan 4) → $86.88 peak (Jan 27), then $483 intraday (Jan 28). | +2,700% (from Jan 1) | Elon Musk tweet ("Gamestonk!!"); 140% short interest forces covering; gamma squeeze from options.

| May–Jun 2021 | Post-earnings run: $30 → $64 (split-adjusted). | +113% | Ryan Cohen's board involvement; retail hype.

| Jan 2023 | 🛀 echo: $13 → $25. | +92% | Roaring Kitty returns to social media. |

| May–Jun 2024 | Roaring Kitty revival: $10 → $64.83 peak. | +500%+ | Keith Gill's X posts; options frenzy; short interest ~20%.

| Sep 2025 | Earnings pop: Recent close $24.93 (up from ~$20 pre-earnings). | +25% (weekly) | Q2 beat; Bitcoin holdings announcement; warrant "dividend."

These rises often caught shorts off-guard, with short interest hitting extremes (e.g., 140% in 2021).

Correlations with the Swaps Data

Your data shows 15+ swaps/CFDs tied to GME, mostly shorts (negative BALANCE/NC values, e.g., -2606 shares; "Short" payoff). Funds like Guidestone (Strategic Alternatives Fund) and Blackstone hold these via banks (Morgan Stanley, Citibank). Notional amounts are small relative to fund assets (e.g., 0.02–0.1% of net assets), but they signal broader synthetic shorting.

From the Reddit DD: These are often total return swaps or CFDs (e.g., "CFD_EQS FIN LEG GAMESTOP" with refs to "GOLDUS33" and "b0llft5" old GME identifiers), allowing funds to short without owning shares, rehypothecate (reuse collateral), and hide positions offshore (e.g., Vienna MTF exchange via UBS/Citigroup). Guidestone explicitly uses swaps for "synthetic convertible instruments" to manage equity risk. This mirrors Archegos-style blowups, where swaps amplified losses during rises.

Patterns & Correlations (timed to rises):

  1. Buildup Phase (Pre-Rise Positioning, 2020):
    • Data Ties: Row 1 (Mar 2020 filing, Oct 2020 period): Citibank swap with MainStay Funds; notional $412K, value +$99K (early profit?).
  • Correlation: Filed amid Aug–Sep 2020 climb (+150%). Reddit DD notes early swaps (2006–2015) via Goldman (GOLDUS33) built hidden shorts; 2020 filings show funds like AllianceBernstein loading up, misreporting via foreign affiliates. As retail buying started, these shorts went underwater, pressuring prices up.

  • Impact: Synthetic shorts (unreported) likely >140% short interest, setting squeeze stage.

  1. Jan 2021 Squeeze (Peak Chaos):
  • Data Ties: Row 2 (Jun 2020 filing, Apr 2020 period): Citibank swap, notional 194K, value -$132K (loss). Rows 3–5 (Aug–Nov 2021 filings, but covering Mar–Sep 2021 periods): Morgan Stanley CFDs with Blackstone; notionals ~24K–230K shares (shorts), values -$1.6K to +$1.7K.

  • Correlation: Filed post-squeeze, but periods overlap the +2,700% run. Negative values (e.g., -$132K) scream losses from the rise—funds paid out on shorts as GME hit $483. Reddit DD links to UBS/Citigroup swaps dodging Reg SHO, allowing "infinite shorting" that exploded when retail forced covering.

Gamma squeeze from options (tied to swaps) drove further gains.

  • Impact: Swaps hid ~140% short float; rises forced banks to buy shares to hedge, fueling the loop.
  1. 2021–2022 Volatility (Post-Squeeze Adjustments):
  • Data Ties: Rows 6–10 (Nov 2021–Nov 2022): Guidestone CFDs (shorts on 257–2,606 shares via "CFD_EQS FIN LEG"); values -$45K to -$654K. Row 9 (May 2022): Blackstone large short (1.17M notional), value +$135K (brief win?).

  • Correlation: Aligns with May 2021 (+113%) and Jan 2023 (+92%) spikes. Guidestone's persistent shorts (e.g., -808 NC in Feb 2022) show funds doubling down post-2021, but negative values indicate losses during rises. Reddit DD highlights Guidestone's swap use for equity risk, with negative book values signaling underwater shorts.

  • Impact: Comovements with other shorts (e.g., 🍿 💩 ) via basket swaps; rises transmitted "bubble behavior" across stocks.

  1. 2023–2024 Mini-Squeezes (Ongoing Pressure):
  • Data Ties: Rows 11–14 (Feb–Nov 2023): Guidestone shorts (-2,606 to -7,364 shares), values -$65K to -$135K. Rows 15–18 (Apr–Aug 2024 amendments): Same funds amending filings (NPORT-P/A), flipping some signs (e.g., -$135K → +$135K? Wait, data shows persistent negatives, but amendments suggest covering).

  • Correlation: Matches Jan/May 2023 (+92%) and May–Jun 2024 (+500%) runs. Roaring Kitty's 2024 posts echoed 2021, hitting swap shorts hard—e.g., Guidestone's -0.02–0.1% portfolio drag. Reddit DD ties to Credit Suisse/Guidestone using Cayman funds for short swaps, amplifying losses on rises.

  • Impact: Swaps allow leverage (big bets, small capital), but rises cause "unlimited risk" payouts.

  1. 2025 Recent Pop (Fresh Data):
  • Data Ties: Rows 19–20 (May 2025 filing): BNP Paribas CFD with Lazard Funds; short notional 331K, value -$6.2K.

  • Correlation: Filed amid Sep 2025 earnings rise (+25%). Short value negative, suggesting loss as GME climbed on Bitcoin news. Fits pattern of funds holding shorts into volatility.

  • Impact: Warrants/dividend (Oct 2025) could spark another gamma event, pressuring swaps.

Overall Insights & Theories

  • Core Correlation: Rises → Swap Losses → Forced Covering/Hedging → More Buying → Bigger Rises. ~80% of your data's swaps are shorts with negative values during/post-rises, echoing Reddit's "synthetic shorting" theory: Funds (e.g., Guidestone, Blackstone) use CFDs/swaps to hide >100% short interest offshore, dodging reports—until squeezes blow them up. This hid true exposure pre-2021, making the squeeze epic.

  • Funds as Repeat Offenders: Guidestone dominates (9+ rows), using swaps for "risk management" but betting short—losses correlate with every major rise.

  • Broader Market Ties: SEC scrutiny post-2021/ Archegos pushed more disclosures (your NPORT-P data), but swaps still enable off-balance-sheet shorts.

  • Caveats: Data is periodic (quarterly), so exact timing is fuzzy. Not all swaps caused rises, but they amplified them via leverage.

In short: These swaps are the "hidden shorts" that turned GME rises into nuclear squeezes. If retail piles in again (e.g., Oct warrants), watch for more amendments/losses.

SWAPS:

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