Sunday, April 28, 2019

The Simulation, The Multiverse, The Blockchain, and the Powers of Prediction acting on the Time-Space Continuum

The Simulation - The Multiverse

A popular topic in philosophy and science as of late is the discussion regarding whether we live in a Simulation. This idea might seem modern, or like it was inspired by the Matrix trilogy, but in fact, this idea is as ancient as any. In Hinduism, the creation of the universe is attributed to Brahman - the idea that reality exists within the mind of the creator. This is altogether not terribly different than the story we are told in the Bible - that existence originates from the thoughts of a divine creator. The alpha, the beginning, and the omega, the end - these are points in time that didn't exist until their creation and measurement - more accurately, the measurement, by us, humans.
How does this relate to The Simulation? We would have to ask, if this is a Simulation, then what is it a Simulation of? If we can look at the above stories, it is the question that seeks to know, "what would happen between the beginning and end of time?" And in this sense, what you are experiencing is one of the many possibilities that exist in between the beginning and end. You are simply, somewhere in the middle, between those two points, measuring the flow of time and change in reality. The Simulation Hypothesis is proposing that you are existing in a state of quantum infinite possibilities, and measuring the reality that currently appears as data in the form of vibration ( as light, sound, or materialistically), interpreted by your sensory organs, formatted into signals that can be interpreted by your nervous system which through your brain creates what we call, reality.
Your recollection of the past reality is stored in your brain as memory - through a series of neural pathways that we cannot observe from the outside of the mind - but we have learned that this mechanism is subject to tampering. The human memory is a terrible way to store data - studies have shown that it is far from perfect. We constantly change how we remember the past so that we can live with ourselves in the present - we avoid taking responsibility for the part we play in the present entirely. We are seeking to justify our behavior in the past to avoid taking blame for the present realities we experience when they are negative. And yet, the memories that we contain about our perception of the past largely shapes how we act in the present, in an attempt to extrapolate the future in pursuit of a better one. Reality, itself, is subject to tampering. In an attempt to understand where we are in the planetary story, we pay attention to “world events” in anticipation that these events will affect us. We hear a story, and are told how it might affect us, and when we are affected, our minds create a cause and effect relationship between the two objects - the cause, and the experienced affect. Future similarities that fit the model to perceived correlations of the past result in modified behavior in the present to mitigate against the expected outcome. In this sense, we are computers made of meat, in a never ending cycle of storing data, observing data for patterns, in an attempt to extrapolate the outcomes of the future. We are walking prediction machines, looking into the past for trends, so we might learn how to craft a better future. Self awareness, and humility - result in our ability to observe how flawed these perceptions have been in the past, but this is in itself, a step in personal growth that many people are largely seemingly incapable of. We are innately aware of our ability to use these pattern recognition abilities to observe unpleasant past experiences in hopes of avoiding similar experiences in the future - and yet, we are also aware of how often our ability to predict the future goes awry - sometimes resulting in the unpleasant reality that we hoped to avoid. In this sense, we are always looking for better data, so that we can try to make better, more accurate, predictions about the future. And this action, of looking for a better authority figure to tell us what needs to happen next to avoid a future we all want, is dangerous in itself. This behavior of outsourcing our concern and contemplation to an authority figure is perhaps the most destructive habit humanity has ever shown itself to be capable of. And so, going back to our creation story, we are a microcosm of a celestial attempt to compute a simply question: What will/has/might happen between the beginning and end of time, as I perceive it? The brutal irony of the question, is that when a meat computer exists within a experiment to see what happens between the beginning and end of time, the meat computer within the calculation has a way of changing the outcome of the cosmic calculation of this question. An infinite amount of possibility exists as a result of a meat computer within a computation that is prone to making mistakes, unintentionally. But to err is human, and to be expected when the human doesn't have enough perspective or data at any one moment to make a completely educated guess about what's going to happen next, though the hardware is likely capable of optimizing for the future, if it had enough perspective. In spite of this, we can hopefully observe that the overarching trend is towards “good” - and in that sense, it is seemingly true, that as long as you try your best, you can forget the rest, things seem to trend in the right direction. But we must consider the possibility in every choice ever made, that another choice could have taken place that might echo through the reality of time. Cleaving the possible universe in two directions - some people refer to this as the multiverse - the multiple possible universes that could exist infinitely, in all directions. More simply put, it is all the possible configurations of matter and energy in the universe that could have ever been possible, when including such a fuzzy calculator as the meat computer that the human mind is.

The Blockchain

The first blockchain technology, Bitcoin, was created by a mysterious figure going under the pseudonym “Satoshi Nakamoto”. It was created to act as a replacement for the banking system that didn't require a third party like Visa, Mastercard, or Bank of America to facilitate. Simply put, it is a system that keeps track of the balances of of the quantity of bitcoin in every account on the network, and keep track of its changes. The intervals that change is permitted to occur on are called, “blocks” - hence the name, blockchain. When you start at the beginning, or alpha/genesis block, there is nothing, and as blocks are created, a more complex arrangement of the balances of bitcoin are created using algorithms to validate the changes from one block to another. More specifically, it is a digital universe that is storing the present configuration of 1’s and 0’s to represent the location of all the bitcoin in existence by way of “wallet” addresses. But, let us imagine for a moment that this system was not accounting for all of the possible locations of “internet money” in “wallets” but instead, was accounting for locations in time and space, and the characteristics of matter and energy at those points. Imagine, that instead this decentralized network of computers was coming to an agreement about reality, not in the sense of how much money each of the users had, but rather how many protons, neutrons, and electrons existed in every possible location in space, and with what amount of energy. Now, every time a block is added to the chain, we are observing the increase/decrease in the presence of energy and particles in each of those possible points in space. If we viewed the changes in these points in space across a progression, we would be observing the change of matter in the flow of time. In this example, the smallest unit of time, is considered to be one block - in physics, the term for the smallest possible unit of time is referred to as a Planck. Physics would tell you that a series of Plancks observed together is what creates a moment in your experience of reality. The change from one planck to another is similar to to the blockchain - your ability to perceive these changes accounts for the continual progression of time as you observe it, which is to be the reality you live in. In the world of blockchain technology, if the machines measuring the change in reality have a disagreement - this can sometimes result in what is called a “fork”. It is when the network of machines measuring, changing, and maintaining the records of the past decide to go their separate ways. Litecoin and bitcoin cash are forks of bitcoin. Ethereum and Ethereum Classic are forks of each other. In this sense, we are watching these blockchain technologies create multiverses every time a fork happens. This is also what is happening in your reality every moment, but you simply cannot access the other forks, because you are experiencing the present reality you measure and choose to participate in while hoping to experience a better future. 

Prediction

What we might consider prediction of the future is in many ways also our creation of that future through action. To think that a desired future is going to come your way simply by wishing for it without participation in the creation of that future is what some might refer to as “magical thinking”. However, inaction is, in itself, a choice that will affect the future. Sometimes, sitting and waiting patiently for change to occur is the right choice. Sometimes, expecting change to occur through inaction is madness. Whether something is madness, or the right choice, largely depends on the outcome, not that actions taken to get there. We do not evaluate a decision based on intention or hope - we base it on results. Results are, after all, the litmus test we use to determine if a choice is a success or not. But hopefully you can see, that the very action of attempting to predict the future, or assuming that one is capable of doing so, inherently changes the future. Which leads to an interesting question - can we predict a desired future, and through the expectation of it to come, actually cause it to manifest it? In short, this is the power of belief and its ability to change the world. It is the Law of Attraction. If you believe that America is going to erupt in cannibalistic anarchy, you might buy a gun, some salt, and pepper. In the presence of these ingredients, it has become that much easier to comfortably eat your neighbor in that horrific future, and thus, created a higher probability of cannibalistic anarchy occuring that drove you to prepare for it. Unfortunately, sales of guns, salt, and pepper are at an all-time high. So in this sense, we should be very afraid. But, perhaps, if we decided collectively that this future is not one that we want to move towards anymore, and predicted a better future for ourselves based on an honest reflection of humanities propensity for cruelty, greed, and madness - that we might be able engineer a prediction mechanism that could use those all too common human traits to manifest a better future. Imagine you are looking out the gap in the blinds of your house - waiting for the race war, or Mad Max future to show itself on your front door. You are deciding whether or not to buy an AR-15 and load up on seasoning and ammunition. The old adage, “Better to have one and not need it” has been the prevailing theory on how to ensure survival in a world where if you don't have a firearm, then in all likelihood, your neighbor does. But what about if we created an alternative that would better suit your needs when the shit hits the fan? Imagine if you could go to a marketplace for prediction, where you could express your worry, certainty, and desire for security in dollars. This already exists in many forms. You can imagine these marketplaces like a sportsbook or bookie for the future. Instead of betting on who is going to win the superbowl, you are betting on the likelihood of an awful outcome that worries you. This is also functionally what an insurance contract is. But imagine if we created an insurance plan that is so competitive in protecting you against the cannibalistic anarchy you are fearing, that instead of buying an AR-15, ammo, and seasoning, you purchased a position in the marketplace where if there was a collapse of society, you would get 500x your investment in a global store of value, like gold, or cryptocurrency. Now, instead of having spent 1,000 USD on an AR-15 and only having a AR-15 to survive the apocalypse with - you have the equivalent of 5,000,000 USD in transferable wealth. You can certainly buy a spare AR-15 at that point. You can also buy any other supplies, like chickens, salt, and pepper - and maybe not need to eat your neighbor. Would we not say that by using such a prediction market, we created a better possible future, where the likelihood of cannibalistic anarchy wasnt increased by the purchase of a firearm? Did the alternative to purchase such a position within a prediction market in fact decrease the likelihood of the awful outcome we had come to fear? Almost certainly. In this sense, simply because we predicted with near certainty that there would be no apocalypse, that the likelihood of an apocalypse decreased. But where would the limits be? How can we know if we never try? Imagine if instead of betting against the apocalypse, there was a 250:1 payout against the likelihood that a base on the moon will be created or discovered this year. In one year, if there was no moon base discovered or created, then the money anyone lost by betting such an outcome would happen could be rolled over into the next year. If in the second year, there was still no moon base discovered or created, the funds could be rolled over an additional time. If no progress was being made on creating a moon base, then we could increase the payout over time to maybe 500:1. Until finally, Elon Musk sees that the costs of creating a moon base is recoverable by way of betting on himself, and builds one, recouping the cost of construction from the prediction market. In this sense, we can imagine a mechanism of prediction that is fueled by greed, fear, wealth, and ambition, that might be able to create or prevent a future that as a species we desire to create in a decentralized way - without ever needing to see our politicians create a compromise to give that future to us. Every moment of your life is an opportunity to create a fork that might lead somewhere better. Often, we simply aren't aware that we have other choices. Maybe its time that we become more aware, before some sort of artificial intelligence becomes aware and makes the choices for us. 

Conclusion

Make no mistake about it - you live in a Simulation on some level. Your very perception of the events of your life is a Simulation that only exists within your own head. When your mind and another mind meet, a compromise of reality must take place if those minds are going to come to cooperate in the pursuit of a better future. On a grander scale, we might be living in a decentralized computational model of reality that only seemingly exists because we perceive the changes through the lenses of our eyes. But hopefully, we exist in a non-deterministic reality, where the past, present, and future are all infinitely configurable and possible. And if all things are possible, then the only thing we can hope to do in the present is increase the probability of our desired possible outcome. But, if we are going to continue to live in fear of each other, rather than cooperate, it seems there is little hope for humanity. We would have to put our faith in the idea that all of us are mirror images of each other, and all want a better future for our families - and hope that a better future has room for us all. 

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