Saturday, November 22, 2025

EverHint Signal — Momentum Swing: Aggressive Momentum — November 21, 2025


What This Signal Is (Quick)

This is the Aggressive Momentum flavor of the Momentum Swing scanner. It is designed to hunt for stocks that are already running hard and are being pushed by strong institutional participation: high momentum, high volume, and high volatility all at once.

The signal is a breakout continuation setup. We are not buying dips here – we are looking for names pressing up near their highs, with volume running well above normal and price trending strongly above key moving averages. The intended holding window is short to medium term, roughly one to four weeks, and the risk level is explicitly high. This is an experimental scanner , not a polished production model.

In other words: this screen is meant for traders who are comfortable with fast moves, gap risk, and sharp reversals, and who use strict risk management and clear exit rules.


How We Ranked Today (Reader Version)

For November 21, 2025, the Aggressive Momentum screen surfaced one qualifying symbol :

  • EXAS (Exact Sciences Corporation) in the Healthcare sector.

The strategy-level guidance recommends ranking by the composite score (0–1), with RSI as a global default where available, and falling back to liquidity measures like adv20 when RSI is absent. For today’s run:

  • Only one symbol passed all filters, so it is effectively ranked first by default.
  • Liquidity is exceptionally strong: EXAS trades roughly 700 million USD in 20-day average dollar volume.
  • Volume thrust today is more than 2.3 times the 20-day norm, which is a textbook aggressive momentum characteristic.

Overlays used in the interpretation:

  • Insider flows over the last 90 days (net buying vs selling).
  • Days to the next earnings event.
  • Analyst coverage and forward estimates.
  • Overall market context from the indices , VIX , yields , and crypto.

Signals are provided for educational use and back-testing , not as trade recommendations.


Today’s Top Signal Table

Single-signal day, sorted by the strategy’s composite ranking framework and liquidity characteristics.

Rank Ticker Company Sector Last ($) Vol Thrust % of 52W High Score (0–100) Market Cap Insider Net (USD, 90d) Days → Earnings
1 EXAS Exact Sciences Corporation Healthcare 100.90 2.37x 100% 0 19.1B -$1.3M 89

Key numeric notes based on your data:

  • EXAS closed at 100.90 USD , sitting right at 100 percent of its 52-week high.
  • Volume thrust ≈ 2.37x , meaning volume is over 130 percent above its 20-day average.
  • Market cap is roughly 19.1 billion USD.
  • Composite score is currently 0 on a 0–1 scale (0–100 after scaling). That reflects the model’s present calibration rather than the absence of momentum in price.

Insider activity:

  • Over the past 90 days, your insider file shows only sales transactions (S) and no open-market purchases.
  • Aggregating purchases minus sales per your rules, EXAS shows about 1.30 million USD in net insider selling , a mild bearish overlay that does not negate the technical breakout but adds caution on the fundamental sentiment side.

Earnings calendar:

  • Next earnings for EXAS in your calendar are scheduled for 2026-02-18 after market close (amc) , about 89 days after the 2025-11-21 signal date.
  • That places earnings in the “distant event risk” bucket: not an immediate catalyst for this 1–4 week swing window, but relevant for anyone considering holding longer.

Analyst estimates:

  • For the nearest fiscal year in your estimates file (ending 2025-12-31), consensus EPS is still negative (around -0.70 USD), with eight analysts contributing to the forecast and revenue estimates in the low-to-mid billions.
  • Out in later years (2026 and beyond), average EPS estimates turn positive and trend higher, suggesting a transition story where the market is increasingly pricing in improving profitability rather than current earnings alone.

Field Notes

Some quick context on why EXAS is being picked up by an Aggressive Momentum screen:

  • Strong momentum and trend structure
    • Price is sitting at new 52-week highs.
    • The short and medium moving averages from your file (ma10, ma21, ma50, ma200) show price extended well above the 50-day and 200-day lines, consistent with a powerful upside trend rather than a mean-reversion zone.
  • Volume and liquidity
    • Volume thrust above 2.3x is exactly what you would want to see in an aggressive breakout: it implies broad participation and potential institutional involvement rather than a thin, retail-only spike.
    • Liquidity, measured by adv20_dollars ≈ 700M USD , makes it more practical for larger swing positions and reduces some execution risk.
  • Volatility profile
    • Your vol63 metric is elevated, which is expected in this strategy: the scanner is explicitly looking for high volatility names where price can move meaningfully over a one to four week window, at the cost of larger drawdowns if the move fails.
  • Fundamental and insider overlays
    • The insider tape is net negative ~1.3M USD over the last 90 days, driven by open-market sales. That is not unusual after a strong run, but it is still a soft yellow flag.
    • Analyst consensus in your estimates file points to improving medium-term EPS trajectory , even though near-term EPS remains negative. This is typical of growth diagnostics stories where the market cares as much about future cash flows and strategic positioning as about current earnings.
  • News catalyst backdrop
    • Recent news flow has been dominated by Abbott’s move to acquire Exact Sciences in a cash deal around 105 USD per share , valuing the company at roughly 21–23 billion USD including debt , according to the companies’ joint press release and subsequent coverage. (Reuters)
    • Headlines from multiple outlets highlight EXAS as a leader in cancer screening and precision oncology diagnostics, with products like Cologuard and Oncotype DX forming the strategic rationale for the deal. (Reuters)
    • This sort of large, strategic acquisition is exactly the kind of catalyst that can turbo-charge a momentum setup, but it also changes the risk profile: price action may increasingly be anchored by the deal terms rather than pure technicals.

Taken together, EXAS fits the template of a high-liquidity, high-volatility breakout name that has just been hit by a major corporate event.


Vlad’s Take (EverHint)

Today’s market backdrop, as of November 21, 2025:

  • The S &P 500 gained about 0.7 percent , the Nasdaq Composite about 0.5 percent , and the Dow Jones Industrial Average nearly 1.0 percent , while the Russell 2000 small-cap index popped roughly 2.7 percent. That points to a risk-on tone with small caps leading , which generally supports momentum swing setups.
  • The VIX closed near 23.4 , down almost 10 percent on the day, but still in the elevated volatility zone rather than calm conditions. Treasury yields, via the 10-year (TNX), eased slightly, while Bitcoin and Ethereum pulled back around 1.5–2.2 percent.

Given this backdrop, the Aggressive Momentum screen landing on a single name like EXAS makes intuitive sense: the market environment is supportive of risk, small caps are outperforming, and one high-profile corporate event is sucking in a lot of attention and volume.

From a practical trading standpoint:

  • EXAS is trading right at its 52-week highs , on 2.3x volume , after a big M&A headline. That is the textbook definition of a crowded, high-energy tape.
  • The upside narrative is clear: strategic acquisition, long runway in cancer diagnostics, improving forward estimates, and a strong technical trend.
  • The risk side is equally clear: deal uncertainty, headline risk, notable insider selling over the last quarter, and the possibility that price spends time chopping around the deal price rather than trending cleanly.

For an aggressive swing trader, this kind of setup usually calls for:

  • Tighter stops and smaller position sizing than a normal momentum trade, given the elevated VIX and corporate event risk.
  • A clear time horizon: once the post-deal volatility fades or the price action starts to compress near the offer price, the edge for this strategy diminishes quickly.
  • Zero expectation that this is “safe” money – it is a deliberately high-risk, high-reward niche inside your broader toolkit.

Independent, data-driven signals.
No hype. No promotions. Just experimental market research from EverHint.

This is not financial advice. Do your own due diligence.
See https://www.everhint.com/disclaimer/ and https://www.everhint.com/faqs/


Read the full article on EverHint.com


Weekly Playbook: November 24th - Market Overview

Key Takeaways This Week

  • NVDA pulled the trigger and took the entire market with it, turning a clean earnings beat into a bloodbath
  • Key indexes tagged their support zones on Friday and delivered a sharp rebound that reminded everyone buyers still exist
  • The VIX signal finally materialized, which means pullbacks can be bought, but stops still matter more than the signal itself
  • A holiday shortened week shifts Black Friday from markets to retailers
  • Last week’s movers: HD, PDD, GOOGL, NVDA and AVGO
  • Earnings to watch this week: ADI, BABA, DELL, WDAY and DE

https://preview.redd.it/6iryq7nehw2g1.png?width=1024&format=png&auto=webp&s=58930265d9df1e15d77cedf4dab4f96d4bf7c074

1. Market Overview

The week opened with a market that already looked uneasy before Nvidia even spoke, and by midweek it finally cracked. What should have been a straightforward setup for follow through buying turned into another reminder that bears are alive and kicking. Stocks slid almost 2% across the major indexes, Bitcoin sliced below the 85000 key support area like nothing was there and dragged sentiment with it, and the Nasdaq logged its weakest stretch since early summer as traders bailed on anything tied to AI or high beta. The irony was that the biggest event of the week delivered everything bulls wanted and still failed to rescue the tape. When a market sells good news this aggressively, it is telling you something about positioning, not fundamentals.

Nvidia’s earnings were the centerpiece and they lived up to the hype. Revenue up 62% year over year to 57B. Data center revenue up 66% to 51.2B. Guidance near 65B for the January quarter excluding China entirely. Networking sales surging 162% year over year. Blackwell already sold out. Cloud GPU capacity fully booked. Growth accelerating for the first time in almost 2 years. The kind of quarter that would have melted faces in any other cycle. Yet by the next morning the Nasdaq was down more than 2% and the stock gave back its post earnings spike almost immediately. That was not a verdict on Nvidia. It was a verdict on a market that has been leaning too hard on a single narrative for too long.

The concern is not about Nvidia’s numbers. Those were exceptional. The concern is about everything orbiting it. AI capex continues to expand at a pace that forces credit markets to absorb rising debt loads faster than revenue catch up. The Bitcoin slide amplified margin pressure on the speculative end of the tape. And the broad selloff following Nvidia’s blowout showed that the trade is now struggling under its own weight. Investors are questioning whether the AI cycle can maintain its current velocity without hitting a wall of financing constraints. And with Bitcoin tumbling more than 10% on the week, the risk off tone found a convenient accelerant. Crypto weakness rarely stays contained. It bleeds into liquidity pockets that broader markets quietly depend on.

By Thursday, the tape cracked in familiar places. The volatility spiked toward 26, the highest since April. Profit taking in the high valuation AI names became wild. Some traders blamed forced unwinds linked to the Bitcoin drawdown. Others pointed to exhaustion after a year of concentrated leadership with too many investors clustered in the same trades. Either way, the market finally behaved like one that remembers gravity.

And yet, as always, the other side showed up quickly. Friday’s session saw nearly 80% of S&P 500 constituents finish green as supportive commentary from the New York regional president reignited hopes for a December cut. The rebound did not erase the damage, but it did show buyers have not vanished. They are just not willing to chase strength anymore. The tape now trades like a battleground between dip buyers defending every 10-20 point slide and sellers of strength fading every bounce. Strategists call it violently flat. Sharp intraday swings. No real directional resolution. A market that wants to go somewhere but cannot pick a direction until the next catalyst forces its hand.

The Fed sits in the background of all of this, even if it made no policy moves. Odds of a December cut fell early in the week and then doubled within 48 hours after the New York regional president signaled room for further adjustment. A delayed jobs report that beat headline expectations with 119000 new jobs but weakened underneath added to the uncertainty. Unemployment rose to 4.4%. Prior months were revised lower. Wage signals softened. The economy still tracks near 3% to 4% quarterly growth, but the policy fog thickened as officials split between those warning against early easing and those arguing that restrictive conditions are biting harder than the headline data suggests. And with markets closed for Thanksgiving and no fresh CPI or jobs report before the December meeting, traders remain stuck navigating with incomplete information.

This is happening alongside global liquidity shifts that deserve more attention. Japan’s currency weakness and rising bond yields open the door to potential intervention. Any move to stabilize the yen near 160 would require selling Treasuries, withdrawing dollar liquidity at a moment when Western deficits are already testing supply. The market is not priced for liquidity tightening from abroad, but the setup is there if Japanese policymakers decide the currency slide has gone far enough.

All of this lands in a market entering late November with seasonal tailwinds but poor momentum. The S&P 500 is on track for its weakest November since 2008, an uncomfortable stat in a year defined by concentration and narrative dependence. Earnings season is basically done. Roughly 95% of companies have reported. More than 80% beat EPS estimates. Roughly 75% beat on sales. Yet price reactions remain lifeless. The good news has been sold. The bad news is getting amplified. And the one company capable of resetting sentiment just delivered a monster quarter that the market shrugged off.

So the question now is whether Nvidia’s results eventually calm the tape or whether this week was the first real sign that the AI trade is maturing into something less forgiving. The AI infrastructure buildout is still accelerating. There is no evidence that hyperscalers are slowing purchases. But when Bitcoin drops more than 10%, volatility spikes and the market sells off after the cleanest set of numbers of the entire quarter, it is clear the balance has shifted. The next move will be about positioning more than valuation, and the tape knows it.

On the bright side we finally got a proper VIX signal, and this time it actually triggered:

https://preview.redd.it/ria27axhhw2g1.png?width=1170&format=png&auto=webp&s=ac5e96c01dab49b6f17043d92a7200fc4db5b964

On Thursday both SPX and VIX closed outside their bands, the exact setup required to start the sequence. On Friday both closed back inside, completing the pattern and confirming the signal. That matters because most of the time the market only brushes the setup, front runs it, or misses by a fraction. This one printed cleanly.

It is a powerful technical reversal signal. It often marks the point where fear exhausts itself and price starts to recalibrate. But like everything else in markets, it is still a probability setup. Nothing is guaranteed in this business. Even the best signals fail, and even the cleanest bottoms can be followed by several more. There is still a non zero chance this bottom simply joins the list of recent ones as we continue the slow staircase lower, and trying to guess which bottom is the bottom is usually the fastest way to meet the next one unprepared.

That is why it is usually safer to buy the next pullback rather than chase the first bounce. Let the market test the signal. Let the tape prove it. And above all, mind your stops, know your risks, and remember that this is a marathon, not a 100x sprint and early retirement story.

Read the rest: https://priceactionplaybook.substack.com/p/weekly-playbook-november-24th


Bitcoin (BTC) Price Prediction: What Will BTC Price Be in 2042?

Ever wonder what your portfolio will look like in 2042? Looking back from the future, will buying Bitcoin today be seen as a genius move or a FOMO-driven mistake? Let's cut through the short-term noise and look at some grounded, long-term predictions.

TL;DR: Bitcoin Price Prediction for 2042

  • Bear Case: $50,000 - $150,000. Bitcoin stalls, faces heavy regulation, or gets outpaced by a competitor. It remains a niche speculative asset.
  • Base Case: $400,000 - $750,000. This is the most probable path. BTC solidifies its role as "digital gold" and becomes a standard part of investment portfolios.
  • Bull Case: $1,000,000+. Hyperbitcoinization. BTC transcends digital gold to become a global reserve asset, likely driven by a loss of faith in major fiat currencies.

So, how do we get these numbers?

It really boils down to one core concept: provable scarcity. There will only ever be 21 million Bitcoin. Meanwhile, governments can print their currencies into infinity.

Every four years, a "halving" event cuts the creation of new BTC in half. We have four more halvings between now and 2042. This creates a massive supply shock over time. Combine that with the growing demand from spot ETFs and institutional investors, and you have the classic recipe for price appreciation.

A Quick "Back-of-the-Napkin" Valuation

The easiest way to think about this is to compare Bitcoin to Gold (currently a ~$15 Trillion market). By 2042, there will be about 20.8 million BTC in circulation.

  • If BTC captures 25% of Gold's market: ~$180,000 per BTC
  • If BTC matches Gold's market cap: ~$721,000 per BTC
  • If BTC doubles Gold's market cap (becomes a reserve asset): ~$1,442,000 per BTC

As you can see, these simple scenarios line up pretty well with the predictions.

What Could Go Wrong?

Of course, this isn't a guaranteed straight line up. The journey will be volatile as hell. The biggest risks are:

  • Regulation: A coordinated global crackdown is the number one threat.
  • Technology: An unforeseen bug or the rise of quantum computing could pose a risk down the line.
  • Competition: Another crypto or a state-backed digital currency could steal its thunder.

It's smart to keep an eye on institutional ETF flows and the global regulatory landscape. You can track things like market trends and on-chain data on sites like pumpparade.com to stay on top of the big picture.

The main takeaway here is to zoom out. The daily and weekly charts are just noise in the grand scheme of things. This is a long-term game based on a powerful economic thesis.

What do you all think? Is the $750k base case realistic, or are we headed for the bull or bear scenario?


Kia ora team — need your input for a proper NZ Bitcoin event 🇳🇿⚡️

I’m helping organise the Auckland Freedom Forum for Waitangi Weekend 2026 — a Bitcoin + culture event hosted partly on a marae with global speakers, workshops, and proper Aotearoa flavour.

Before we lock anything in, can you take 60 seconds to fill this out?

👉 https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSczDbmkcu6FctLYqMivnH7qK_aBROF-FKqpVV6DN8iinKCARg/viewform

Asking: • What you’d actually pay • What would make it worth attending • Who you want to hear from • What kind of experience NZ Bitcoiners prefer

Keen to build something world-class here, not overseas. Appreciate any input 🙏