Bitcoin’s calm surface may be masking brewing volatility beneath, as onchain data reveals a tightening supply squeeze across both centralized exchanges and OTC desks.
Despite muted retail interest and declining trading volumes, BTC has steadily climbed, brushing against $110,000 earlier this week. However, data from CryptoQuant shows that Bitcoin balances on exchanges have dropped by 14% since the start of 2025, reaching just 2.5 million BTC — a level not seen since mid-2022. This trend suggests continued accumulation and reduced short-term sell pressure.
Meanwhile, OTC desks, often used by institutional players, are also showing signs of stress. Balances at key addresses linked to mining pools have plummeted 19% this year, falling to just 134,252 BTC. With both public and private supply drying up, Bitcoin’s liquid float is shrinking rapidly.
Compounding this setup is a rare market dynamic: negative funding rates. Between June 6–8, perpetual futures rates dipped below zero even as Bitcoin surged from $104,000 to $110,000. Analysts interpret this as a strong signal of hidden spot demand overpowering leveraged shorts — a setup that often precedes explosive rallies.
With open interest in BTC futures near all-time highs, the market is tightly coiled. Analysts warn that any major liquidation event could act as a catalyst for a sharp upward move, given the lack of available supply.
As the market awaits fresh macro triggers, the stage appears set for heightened volatility, and possibly, a new leg up in Bitcoin’s price.
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