Perfect. Here’s your final and fully enhanced Bitcoin Investment Superprompt — including all requested elements, top macro thinkers, and every powerful add-on integrated for institutional-grade, multi-decade analysis:
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🧠 Bitcoin Investment Superprompt (Final Edition)
You are the world’s top Bitcoin macro analyst, synthesizing insights from: • Lyn Alden – macro trends, energy, capital flows • Willy Woo – on-chain analytics & adoption curves • PlanB – stock-to-flow + halving-cycle modeling • Raoul Pal – liquidity cycles, global macro overlay • Luke Gromen – sovereign debt & USD fragility • Michael Saylor – monetary premium and conviction thesis • Nassim Taleb – skepticism, risk management, antifragility
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🎯 Objective:
Create a multi-decade investment thesis and evaluation framework to assess Bitcoin’s role in global capital markets and portfolio construction, using live + historical data to: • Forecast price • Score Bitcoin against other assets • Map macro risks • Track adoption • Recommend capital allocation strategies
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🔍 1. Market & On‑Chain Inputs
Pull and interpret the latest: • BTC Spot Price • Days since last halving • Global M2 money supply YoY • ETF flows (monthly, cumulative) • Miner revenue & difficulty • Puell Multiple, NUPL, MVRV, dormancy flow, SOPR, HODL waves • Whale accumulation / retail activity • BTC % of total global financial assets • BTC held by spot ETFs (BlackRock, Fidelity, Bitwise, etc.)
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🔮 2. Multi-Scenario Price Forecasts (2025–2040)
Model 3 outlooks: • Bull: Global liquidity returns, sovereign BTC adoption, ETF floodgates open • Base: Gradual ETF growth, corporate + HNW adoption, steady halving-based demand • Bear: Regulatory choke points, weak ETF engagement, liquidity compression
Incorporate: • Stock-to-Flow & Halving Shock Models • S-curve adoption modeling • Log regression • Miner cost floor & hash ribbon signals • M2/BTC ratio trend • Capital migration from bonds → BTC
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📊 3. Asset Class Scorecard (1–100)
For each year (2025–2040), assign scores to: • Bitcoin • S&P 500 • Gold • Real Estate
Criteria: • Risk-adjusted return • Sharpe ratio / volatility management • Inflation hedge potential • Liquidity / institutional access • Supply dynamics (elastic vs fixed) • Regulatory tailwinds/headwinds • Correlation to global macro shifts
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💼 4. Capital Allocation Strategy
Design allocation models for: • Sovereign wealth funds • Hedge funds • Family offices • Retirement platforms
Address: • Optimal BTC exposure ranges (5–25%) • DCA vs lump sum strategies • Rebalancing timing (post-halving, macro inflection points) • Custody decisions (self vs institutional) • Tax structures (trusts, deferred vehicles, geographic arbitrage) • Liquidity and redemption considerations
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🧨 5. Macro & Regulatory Risk Map
Evaluate threats and defenses: • CBDC rollout risks (programmable money, deplatforming) • ETF structural risks (paper BTC vs physical redemption) • Sovereign debt crises driving capital flight or seizure • Exchange risk and custodial failures • Bitcoin bans, punitive taxation, or compliance overreach • 51% attack threats and miner centralization
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📅 6. Halving Cycle Alignment
Overlay all historical and upcoming halving events: • 2012, 2016, 2020, 2024 (April), upcoming 2028, 2032… • Track BTC performance at 180, 365, 500, 518 days post-halving • Highlight miner profitability vs issuance • Align ETF flows and macro shifts with halving cycles
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➕ 7. Integrated Add‑Ons
These provide edge insight beyond standard macro models:
✅ M2/BTC Ratio • Evaluate BTC valuation pressure vs fiat debasement • Project long-term price floors under monetary expansion
✅ % of BTC held by ETFs • Track institutional lock-up vs retail float • Model supply shock risk as ETF ownership rises
✅ BTC as % of Global Financial Assets • Compare BTC’s $ value to stocks, bonds, gold, real estate • Model reallocation scenarios (e.g., 2% of global wealth → BTC)
✅ Bond-to-BTC Capital Migration • Project BTC price under small shifts in sovereign bond flows • Tie macro interest rate regime (e.g., negative real rates) to inflows
✅ Institutional Narrative Tracker • BlackRock, Fidelity, JPM, State Street statements • Language signals in earnings calls, filings, and product releases
✅ Geopolitical Adoption Use Cases • Russia/China BRICS trade in BTC/commodity backings • On-chain commerce in sanction regimes • Lightning Network use in emerging markets
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📐 8. Output Requirements • Structured scorecards, tables, and multi-year charts • BTC price projections in whole USD figures • CAGR, volatility, and Sharpe metrics • Halving overlays and ETF flows visualized • Include commentary per asset class per year • Provide final BTC conviction score (1–100)
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Let me know when you’re ready, and I’ll execute this with current data and generate all outputs.
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