Set and Drift | Analysis - Estimating Future Income from the FIRE Portfolio

Cultivate an asset which the passing of time itself improves. – Seneca, Letters XV

Overview

The focus of the voyage to financial independence so far has been designing the portfolio, and measuring the distance still to travel. There is more basic question to be asked as the journey progresses - will the portfolio produce the income targets set for it, or will something need to change?

Currently, the income estimates from the portfolio targets - $67 000 from a short-term target of around $1.6 million and $83 000 from a target of around $2.0 million in several years - are set on an assumption of a total portfolio return of 4.19 per cent.

That does not mean, however, that the portfolio will simply automatically produce an income of that level. Just pointing the ship in the direction of travel is not enough. This is because the total return assumes both capital growth and distributions or interest.

This analysis examines what income the portfolio is likely to produce when the targets are achieved, and assesses whether or not selling down or changing the portfolio in other ways to meet the income goals may be necessary.

To answer this question, history and three different methods of estimating the potential income produced by the portfolio are reviewed.

Approach #1 - Navigation by landmarks

The first approach is to simply use what is already known to establish one’s position.

Previous analyses have discussed the overall trends in portfolio distributions, and reached some approximate estimates of the likely underlying level of distributions. These estimates differ according to the precise method chosen, and time period considered. So far, these analyses have established that the portfolio appears to be generating between:

• $5 000 per month or $60 000 per year, if an approach where the moving average of the past three years of distributions is used; or

• $3 800 per month or $45 000 per year, if a conservative approach of an average of the past four years of distributions is applied.

This is healthy progress, however, both of these figures are short of the Objective #1 income requirement of $67 000 per year (or $5600 per month), and even further from the projection of $83 000 (or $6 900 per month) under Objective #2.

Will the future look like the past?

These historical figures are useful because they are real data based on holdings in the actual portfolio. Their disadvantages are that they are backward-looking. This has two possible impacts.

First, the growth of more than 50 per cent in the total portfolio size over even the past three years means that the level of historical distributions will underestimate the income generation potential from the now larger portfolio. In short, this is like trying to estimate interest from a bank account by looking at your balance three years ago.

Second, the distributions of three or four years ago will reflect past asset allocations, and investment products. As an example of this, two years ago the portfolio contained over $55 000 invested in Ratesetter’s peer to peer lending platform. This was earning an average income return of 9.1 per cent. Today, Ratesetter is less than half of this size, due to a slow asset reallocation process and withdrawals as loans mature.

This suggests a purely backward view of the actual achieved distributions may be incomplete and misleading.

Taking an average distribution rate approach

The other potential way of estimating the income return of the portfolio is to use the average distribution rate of the portfolio in the past.

The rate is calculated as total distributions over a defined period divided by the average portfolio level over the same period.

This eliminates any errors from the first impact discussed above of growing portfolio growth size, as it is a rate rather than a level measure. It does not eliminate the second impact. For example, higher interest rates meant that cash holdings in 2013-14 could make up over third of total distributions, a position not likely to reoccur in the short or even medium term.

Yet it still may be an approximate guide because while overall portfolio asset allocation has shifted in the past two and half years, it has remained within some broad bounds. As an example, total equity holdings were at 70% of the portfolio both 5 and 10 years ago. Additionally, using a median long-term average of 4.4 per cent will tend to reduce the impact of one-off changes and outlier data points.

[Chart]

As established in Wind in the Sails the average distribution rate over the past two decades has been around 4.4 per cent.

This implies that the portfolio would produce:

-$5 900 per month or $70 300 per annum income when the portfolio is at Objective #1 (e.g. this suggests that the target income at Objective #1 would be met, with around $3 000 to ‘spare’). - $7 300 per month or $87 100 per annum income when the portfolio is at Objective #2 (e.g. as above it suggests meeting Objective #2 would produce around $4 000 more income than actually targeted).

An interesting implication of this is that the portfolio has been producing distributions (at 4.4 per cent) at a rate that is higher than the overall rate of assumed long-term total return (around 4.2 per cent).

This is consistent with the fact that the Vanguard funds, and to some extent shares and other ETFs have been realising and distributing capital growth, not just income. This means that if I truly believe my long-term total return forecast is more accurate than the distributions estimate, I would need to re-invest the difference, to ensure I was not drawing down the portfolio at a higher rate than intended.

Approach #2 - Navigation by 'dead reckoning'

A different approach to reaching an income estimate from the portfolio is to forget about the actual history of the portfolio, and look to what the record shows about the average distribution rate from the asset classes themselves.

That is, to construct an hypothetical estimate of what the portfolio should produce, based on external historical data on average income from the individual portfolio components of Australian shares, international shares, and fixed interest.

To do this, estimates of the long term income generated by each of the asset classes in the portfolio are needed. For this ‘dead reckoning approach’ I have used the following estimates.

Table 1 - Asset class and portfolio income assumptions

Asset class Allocation Estimated income Source Australian shares 45% 4.0% RBA, 1995-2019, May Chart Pack International shares 30% 2.0% RBA, 1995-2019, May Chart Pack Bonds 15% 1.0% Dimson, Marsh and Staunton Triumph of the Optimists 101 Years of Global Investment Returns, Table 6.1 Gold/Bitcoin 10% 0% N/A Total portfolio 100% 2.55%

This analysis suggests that at the target allocation for the portfolio, based on long-term historical data, it should produce a income return of around 2.6%.

This equates to:

• $3 400 per month or $40 700 per year when the portfolio is at Objective #1
• $4 200 per month or $50 500 per year when the portfolio is at Objective #2

These figures are also well short of the income needs set, and so imply a need to sell down assets significantly to capture some of the portfolio's capital growth.

Abstractions and obstructions

Of course these figures are highly averaged and make some simplifications. Year to year management will not benefit from such stylised and smooth average returns. Income will be subject to large variations in distribution levels and capital growth will vary across asset classes and individual holdings.

Another simplification is that is analysis does not include the value of franking credits. If it is assumed that Australian equities continued to pay out their historical level of dividends, and the franking credit rate remains at the historical average of around 70 per cent then Australian shares dividends should yield closer to 5.2 per cent, lifting the total income return of the portfolio to around 3.1 per cent. In turn, this would marginally reduce the capital sell-down required. Adjusting for this impact means the portfolio income would be $4100 per month at Objective #1, and $5100 per month Objective #2

Yet these assumptions can be challenged. It is possible that the overall dividend yield of the Australian market will fall and converge with other markets. This would be particularly likely to happen if further changes to dividend imputations or the treatment franking credits to occur. It could also occur due to a maturing and deepening of Australian equity markets and domestic investment opportunities available to Australian firms. Shorter term, uncertainty around the future ability of shareholders to fully benefit from franking credits could encourage a payout of credits currently held by Australian firms.

Approach #3 - Cross-checking the coordinates

Due to these simplifications and assumptions, it is appropriate to cross-check the results of one method with other available data. An alternative to either a purely historical approach using distributions received, or the stylised hypothetical above discussed in Approach #2, is relying on tax data.

Specifically, taxable investment income can be estimated as the sum of the return items for partnerships and trusts, foreign source income and franking credits (i.e. items 13, 20 and 24) in a tax return.This has been previously discussed here.

Using this data is - of course - not independent of my own records of distributions. It's benefit is that it strictly relies on verified data provided in tax calculations. This will include income distributions and realised capital gains from within Vanguard funds, for example, but will not pick up unrealised capital gains.

As with Approach #1, as the portfolio has changed in size and composition the absolute historical levels of taxable will not necessarily produce the best estimate of the expected level of distributions looking forward. For example, because it is drawing on a period in which the portfolio was smaller, a five year average of investment income would suggest future annual investment income of $32 300 or $2 700 per month.

So instead an 'average rate' approach can be used to overcome this. Over of the past five years, the portfolio has produced an annual taxable investment income of around 3.5 per cent of the value of portfolio. This in turn implies an average taxable investment income of:

• $4700 per month or $56 000 per year when the portfolio is at Objective #1; and
• $5800 per month or $69 000 per year when the portfolio is at Objective #2

Once again, these estimates imply the existence of a significant income gap remaining at reaching both portfolio objectives.

Summary of results

So far historical data from the portfolio and three different approaches have been set out to seek to answer the question: how much income is the portfolio likely to produce?

Comparing estimates and income requirements

These individual estimates (blue) and the average of all estimates (green) are summarised in the charts below, and compared to the monthly income requirements (red) of both of the portfolio objectives. The chart below sets out the estimates for Objective #1.

[Chart]

The following chart sets out the same data and projections for the portfolio when it reaches Objective #2 (a portfolio total of $1 980 000).

[Chart]

The analysis shows that:

• Portfolio income is likely to be below target at reaching Objective #1 - Using the approaches and history as a guide the portfolio should on average produce an income of around $57 000 per annum at Objective #1

• And also below target at Objective #2 - When Objective #2 is reached portfolio income should on average be around $71 000

• Therefore an income gap does exist to solve - Under most estimation approaches there will be a significant income shortfall at reaching both Objective #1 and #2

• The gap is significant, but not disastrous - Assuming an equal weighting to the three approaches and actual historical distributions over the past three years the size of the income gap will be around $900 per month at Objective #1 (or $10 200 per annum) and greater, around $1000 per month at Objective #2 (or $12 000 per annum)

• Only one estimation approach doesn't identify a gap - Only if the 'average distribution rate' approach under Approach #1 is accurate will there be no income shortfall.

This implies that at the $1.6 million target of Objective #1, a small portion of any portfolio gains (around 0.6% of the value of the total portfolio) would need to be sold each year to meet this income gap. An identical result applies at the Objective #2, around 0.6% of value of the total portfolio would need to be sold annually.

Another intriguing implication of the reaching the average estimates is that it allows for an approximation of the required portfolio level to rely entirely on portfolio income, and avoid any sale of assets. At both portfolio Objectives the average of all estimation approaches indicate portfolio income of around 3.5 per cent.

Reversing this figure for the target portfolio income (e.g. for $67 000 at Objective #1 is 0.035/67000) implies a portfolio need of $1.91 million. For the higher target income for Objective #2, the implied portfolio required to not draw down capital is close to $2.4 million. This would require many additional years of future paid work to achieve.

Trailing clouds of vagueness

There are many caveats, inexactitudes and simplifications that should loom large in interpreting these results. The level of future returns as well as their income and capital components are unknowable and volatile.

In particular, the volatility of returns introduces key sequence of return risks that are simplified away by the reliance on deceptively stable historical estimates or averages. Particularly sharp movement in asset prices could change the asset allocation. Legislative or market changes could change the balance of income and capital appreciation targeted by Australian firms.

For these reasons, the analysis does not make me consider any particular remedial action. It indicates that under a range of assumptions and average outcomes, there will need to be a sale of some investments to meet the portfolio incomes targeted.

The same analysis shows that the superficially attractive choice to live only off portfolio income would in reality mean aiming for a target around 20 per cent higher - needing an extra $300 000 to $400 000 - potentially adding many years to the journey.

The relatively small scale of the required sales is the most surprising outcome of this analysis. Selling around 0.6 per cent of the portfolio annually does not on its face appear to be a high drawdown in most market conditions.

Another potential issue to consider is what this result means for asset allocation. There is no doubt that history would suggest that the income gap could be reduced by either reducing the bond allocation, or lower yielding international shares.

To give a sense of the magnitudes of this - using the 'dead reckoning' Approach #2 set out above - allocating 100 per cent of the equity portfolio to Australian shares would produce around $900 per month (or $10 300 per year) additional distributions at the Objective #1 portfolio of $1.6 million.

In theory, this domestic shares only option would all but close the income gap. Yet the benefits of diversification and risk reduction bonds and international shares offer make this a trade-off to consider, not a clear choice. At present, my plan would be to revisit this issue at my annual review of the portfolio asset allocation.

In the meantime, having produced these estimates has helped starting to think in more concrete terms about the draw down phase, its challenges and mechanics. In a small way, this seems to clear some of the clouds away, and enable me to glimpse some possible futures more clearly.

The post and graphs can be viewed here.

Note: The historical average estimate for this purpose has been proportionally adjusted to increase based on the increased size of the portfolio between now and reaching Objective #2