BTC Golden Crosses: Looking At The 4 Most Recent Times The 50/200 Day MA Cross Has Occurred

Hey guys, been seeing a lot of posts discussing a potential Bitcoin Golden Cross and what it means for the charts. There is a huge portion of the community who believes this will occur sometime in mid September, whereas many others think it is simply a Bull Trap, which would most likely officially end this past years bull run. I decided to look at the 4 most recent times where this Cross has occurred to see what could possibly happen if it appears in September. Please note, these are not all technically Golden Crosses, but simply times where the 50 day MA crossed above the 200 day MA. Firstly, terms:

Golden Cross - When a short-term moving average (MA) rises above a long-term moving average. This is considered a bullish signal, and when using longer-term numbers, can tell a great deal. For this analysis we will be using the 50 day short-term MA and 200 day long-term MA. While a majority of investors strongly consider the cross a genuine bull market signal, there are others who doubt it always works. A Golden Cross exists after a downward trend, when purchasing interest goes up, and should always eventually lead to a bull market.

Bull Trap - A downward trend in the market after a convincing breakout, a false signal. Good for bears.

Here's a list of the last four times the 50 day MA crossed the 200 day MA. I measure from the day the two MAs crossed to whenever it hit its next ATH (or where it stops after a downward trend). The charts below are measured in 1 day increments.

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• October 28th, 2015 - $300 - June 18th, 2016 - $750 - December 16th, 2017 - $19,000

Had to use three dates here in order to better express the parabolic change over such a long period of time. At two years, by far the longest time period between a Cross and ATH. It was preceded by a 4 month decline in price, from $300 to $220. Though the cross only initially grew 2.5x, over two years it grew 65x, by far the largest growth number shown in these charts.

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• April 23rd, 2019 - $5400 - June 26th, 2019 - $13,000

In April 2019, BTC climbed around 2.43x its worth in approximately 2 months. Prior, it remained around $6500 for 3 months before falling down to 3100. BTC continued to steadily decline for several months after until eventually hitting a low of $6500

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• Feb 18th, 2020 - $8,850 - March 17, 2020 - $5,000

Here is our only example of the market hitting a downward trend after the 50 day MA moves past the 200 day MA. Some may call it a Bull Trap, others simply call it a downward trend, as it didn't take long for the next crossing. Bitcoin went down by 44%, or .56x. Prior to this, we saw our last ATH gradually fall to under $7000 before hitting its cross.

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• May 21st, 2020 - $9,000 - April 14th, 2021 - $64,000

Our most recent example of a Golden Cross, which brings us up to date. The gains here were massive, as the BTC market grew 7x. It then plummeted down 50% to $30,000, before regaining some energy now.

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As we see in these 4 examples, there are many different options that can occur when the 50 day and 200 day cross, not just a Golden Cross. In our first and final examples, we saw parabolic movement which lasted over 2 years in 2015 and under 1 year in 2021. In 2019, we saw the price jump by 2.4x over the course of 2 months, a much shorter time period along with smaller growth. All three were previously in downward trends. Our 3rd example shows either a Bull Trap or just simply a downward trend in the market. Out of these four examples, this is the only one with a declining BTC price, though it certainly did not last for long and helped us get to the next Golden Cross. Please note, in order to fully understand these events, you need to use much more context than just the 50/200 MAs. This is a broader look at general trends, but each are unique and should be treated differently.

Which brings us back to now. Is there going to be a Golden Cross or are we going to hit a Bull Trap? I do not claim to know and will not give my opinion in this post. This is simply to shed light on the last several examples of when the 50 day MA crossed over the 200 day MA. Be careful, as seen through this research, sometimes signals can be misleading if looked at solely. Please, when analyzing charts, make sure to consider many factors, such as halving events, RSI, volume indexes, news, and so much more. Let me know if there are any issues with the information and your opinions. Thanks for reading, hope you found it interesting!