WEEKLY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS REPORT – 01 AUGUST 2021
WEEKLY SNAPSHOT
CPI (QoQ) (Q2), AUSTRALIA
WHEN: WHAT IT HAD INFLUENCED:
27th JULY 2021 AUD and its subsequent pairs
WHAT HAPPENED: The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation.
AUDUSD is currently in the down channel. The further downside can be seen in the coming week.
New Home Sales (Jun), U.S.
WHEN: WHAT IT HAD INFLUENCED:
26th JULY 2021 USD and its subsequent pairs
WHAT HAPPENED: New Home Sales measures the annualized number of new single-family homes that were sold during the previous month. This report tends to have more impact when it’s released ahead of Existing Home Sales because the reports are tightly correlated.
USDMXN is trading in the parallel channel, further upside can be seen if it breaks the channel upside and vice-versa.
Core CPI (MoM) (Jun), CANADA
WHEN: WHAT IT HAD INFLUENCED:
28th JULY 2021 CAD and its subsequent pairs
WHAT HAPPENED: The Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the changes in the price of goods and services, excluding food and energy. The CPI measures price change from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation.
CADJPY is trading in the parallel channel, further upside can be seen if it breaks the channel upside and vice-versa.
Gold up 3% for July, Regaining Shine on Dovish Fed’s Wings
WHAT IT HAD INFLUENCED:
GOLD
WHAT HAPPENED: Gold settled up for the week and month despite a price drop on Friday as a Federal Reserve standing resolute against any immediate talk of stimulus tapering or rate hike restored some shine to the yellow metal.
Front-month gold on New York’s Comex settled down $18.60, or 1%, at $1,817.20 an ounce. For the week, it rose 1%. More importantly, for July, it finished up almost 3%, after June’s 7% plunge.
“Gold’s great week is ending on a down note, but bullion bulls are probably feeling pretty optimistic,” said Ed Moya, head of research for the Americas at New York’s OANDA. “Gold appears to be close to triggering technical buying following the aftermath of the Fed, persistent delta variant concerns, and depressed global bond yields.”
GOLD is trading in the up channel; it will follow the trend until there is breakdown.
Oil Ekes Out 4th Monthly Gain After U.S. Inventory Beat
WHAT IT HAD INFLUENCED:
CRUDE OIL
WHAT HAPPENED:
Oil had its best week in five on Friday after outsized U.S. draws in everything, from crude to gasoline and diesel, helped bulls put the market back on a positive track.
New York-traded West Texas Intermediate crude and London’s Brent also posted modest gains for July, extending oil’s positive run to a fourth straight month.
WTI settled up 33 cents, or 0.5%, at $73.95 per barrel on Friday. The benchmark for U.S. oil was up 2.1% for the Monday-Friday stretch, marking its best week in five. It also showed a gain of 0.7% for July.
Brent, the global benchmark for oil, settled up 31 cents, or 0.4%, at $75.41 on the day. For the week, Brent rose 1.8%. For July, Brent showed a 1.1% gain. That was its best in six weeks.
WTI CRUDE OIL is currently in the upward channel. Further upside can be seen in the coming week.
New Bitcoin Mutual Fund Makes It Easy for Investors to Gain Exposure to $BTC
WHAT IT HAD INFLUENCED:
BITCOIN
WHAT HAPPENED: A new mutual fund is set to allow investors to gain exposure to the flagship cryptocurrency bitcoin without buying BTC through an exchange or managing any private or public keys to manage their coins.
ProFunds has announced in a press release the launch of the Bitcoin Strategy ProFund, a publicly available bitcoin mutual fund in the United States that invests in bitcoin futures contracts. While the fund does not invest in BTC directly, it aims to track the price performance of bitcoin before fees and expenses.
In the release, the firm noted that the new fund eliminates the need for investors to buy bitcoin on exchanges or hold their BTC in wallets, and instead makes it convenient to diversify portfolios with exposure to the cryptocurrency.
BTCUSD is trading in a parallel channel, it will consolidate in a range until there is a breakout on either side.
5 KEY EVENTS TO WATCH OUT
Manufacturing PMI (Jul), U.K.
WHEN: WHAT IT INFLUENCES:
1st AUGUST 2021 GBP and its subsequent
pairs
WHAT’S HAPPENING: The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector; below 50 indicates contraction.
A higher-than-expected reading ought to be taken as positive/bullish for the GBP, whereas a lower-than-expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the GBP.
ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Jul), U.S.
WHEN: WHAT IT INFLUENCES:
4th AUGUST 2021 USD and its subsequent
pairs
WHAT’S HAPPENING: The ADP National Employment Report is a measure of the monthly change in non-farm, private employment, based on the payroll data of approximately 400,000 U.S. business clients. The release, two days ahead of government data, is a good predictor of the government’s non-farm payroll report. The change in this indicator can be very volatile.
A higher-than-expected reading ought to be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, whereas a lower-than-expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.
Employment Change (Jul), CANADA
WHEN: WHAT IT INFLUENCES:
6st AUGUST 2021 CAD and its subsequent
pairs
WHAT’S HAPPENING: Employment Change measures the change in the number of people employed. Job creation is an important indicator of consumer spending.
A higher-than-expected reading ought to be taken as positive/bullish for the CAD, whereas a lower-than-expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the CAD.
RBA Interest Rate Decision (Aug), AUSTRALIA
WHEN: WHAT IT INFLUENCES:
3rd AUGUST 2021 AUD and its subsequent
Pairs
WHAT’S HAPPENING: Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) board members come to a consensus on where to set the rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short-term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.
A higher-than-expected reading ought to be taken as positive/bullish for the AUD, whereas a lower-than-expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the AUD.
Manufacturing PMI (Jul), GERMANY
WHEN: WHAT IT INFLUENCES:
2nd AUGUST 2021 EUR and its subsequent
pairs
WHAT’S HAPPENING: The German Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector; below indicates contraction.
A higher-than-expected reading ought to be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR, whereas a lower-than-expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR.
EQUITIES IN THE COMING WEEK
-
HSBC (HSBA) to announce its Quarterly Results on 02nd AUGUST 2021, EPS estimated to 0.1306 per share while revenue estimated 9.13B.
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Eli Lilly (LLY) to announce its Quarterly Results on 03rd AUGUST 2021, EPS estimated to 1.89 per share while revenue estimated 6.59B.
3. Amgen (AMGN) to announce its Quarterly Results on 03rd AUGUST 2021, EPS estimated to 4.08 per share while revenue estimated 6.45B.
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Toyota Motor (TYT) to announce its Quarterly Results on 04th AUGUST 2021, EPS estimated to 236.72 per share while revenue estimated 7,425.68B.
- Moderna (MRNA) to announce its Quarterly Results on 05th AUGUST 2021, EPS estimated to 5.96 per share while revenue estimated 4.21B.
DATA WATCH
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