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Wednesday, February 25, 2026
Japanese Yen Forecast: USD/JPY Bulls Charge Yearly Open Resistance
USD/JPY is pressing into resistance into the close of the month, and the reaction here could decide whether the rally accelerates or stalls.
By : Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist
Japanese Yen Technical Forecast: USD/JPY Weekly Trade Levels
- USD/JPY is on pace for a second consecutive weekly advance, pressing into a major confluence zone at the yearly open and key Fibonacci retracement resistance.
- Price action remains constructive while above near-term support, but a decisive weekly close above resistance is required to confirm broader uptrend resumption.
- Event risk ahead with Tokyo CPI & US PPI on tap into the close of the week / month
- Resistance 156.64/67, 157.70-158.08 (key), 158.88- Support 154.79, 152.69, 151.91/98 (key)
USD/JPY has extended its recovery into the close of the month, bringing price back to a technically significant resistance zone anchored by the yearly open and a key retracement of the year-to-date range. This is a decisive test for the bulls. A sustained push through this confluence region would signal scope for a renewed challenge of the 2025 highs, while rejection into the weekly close would reinforce the risk of consolidation or pullback within the broader structure. Traders should closely monitor price behavior around this pivot as it is likely to define near-term directional bias. Battle lines are drawn on the USD/JPY weekly technical chart.
Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this Yen setup and more. Join live on Monday’s at 8:30am EST.
Japanese Yen Price Chart – USD/JPY Weekly
Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; USD/JPY on TradingView
Technical Outlook: In my last Japanese Yen Technical Forecast we noted that USD/JPY had rebounded just ahead of uptrend support with the bulls, “within striking distance of resistance at 157.70-158.08- a region defined by the 2025 high-week close (HWC), the December high-close, and the January HWC. Look for a reaction there IF reached..” The rally registered an intraweek high at 157.66 the following week before turning sharply lower with an outside-week reversal rebounding just ahead of the January low.
USD/JPY is poised to mark a second consecutive weekly advance into the close of the month with price testing resistance today at the 61.8% retracement of the year-to-date range and the objective yearly open at 156.64/67. The focus is on the weekly / monthly close with regards to this threshold. Key resistance remains at 157.70-158.08- a region defined by the 2025 high-week close (HWC), the December high-close, and the January HWC. A breach / weekly close above this zone is needed to threaten resumption of the broader uptrend towards the 2025 swing high at 158.88. The next major technical consideration is eyed at the 2024 HWC and the 2024 swing high at 160.74-161.95- look for a larger reaction there IF reached.
Initial support rests at the 2026 low-week close (LWC) / the objective February open at 154.79 and is backed by the January low-close at 152.69. Critical support and broader bullish invalidation remains unchanged at 151.91/98- a region defined by the 2022 & 2023 swing highs, and the 38.2% retracement of the 2025 advance. A break / weekly close below this threshold is needed to invalidate the April uptrend and would suggest a larger trend reversal is underway. Subsequent support rests with the 52-week moving average, currently near ~150.
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Bottom line: USD/JPY is trading into confluent resistance into the close of the week / month, and the focus is on a possible inflection off this zone in the days ahead. From a trading standpoint, losses should be limited to 154.79 IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a close above 156.67 needed to fuel another run towards the yearly highs.
Keep in mind we get the release of Tokyo CPI tomorrow with the US Producer Price Index (PPI) on tap Friday. Stay nimble into the monthly cross and watch the weekly close here for guidance. Review my latest Japanese Yen Short-term Outlook for a closer look at the near-term USD/JPY technical trade levels.
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--- Written by Michael Boutros, Senior Technical Strategist
Follow Michael on X @MBForex
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