Our Bitcoin analysis after Trump didn't mention Bitcoin in his inauguration

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Technical Analysis:

1. Price Action:
   • Bitcoin (BTC) is currently trading at $103,096.03.
   • The price has shown significant volatility in the past few hours, with a recent high of $103,508.74 and a low of $102,635.61.
   • The price is below the 20-period and 50-period moving averages ($105,786.72 and $106,599.60, respectively), indicating a bearish trend.
2. MACD:
   • The MACD histogram is negative (-449.63), and the MACD line is below the signal line, confirming bearish momentum.
3. Bollinger Bands:
   • The price is near the middle Bollinger Band ($105,786.72) but far from the lower band ($101,864.12), suggesting room for further downside movement.
4. ATR (Average True Range):
   • The ATR is 4,219.58, indicating high volatility, which is suitable for intraday trading.

Fundamental Analysis:

1. Economic Calendar:
   • There are no high-impact economic events in the next 2 hours, meaning the market is less likely to be influenced by external factors in the immediate term.
   • However, tomorrow (Jan 21), there are high-impact events such as the GBP Claimant Count Change and CAD CPI data, which could influence risk sentiment.
2. Market Sentiment:
   • Bitcoin's recent rally above $100,000 was driven by softer-than-expected US inflation data, but the current bearish technical indicators suggest a potential pullback or consolidation phase.
3. Correlation with Nasdaq 100:
   • Bitcoin's strong correlation with tech stocks (correlation coefficient of 0.70) implies that any bearish sentiment in equities could weigh on BTC.
4. Machine Learning Model:
   • The ML model suggests a SELL trade with an entry at $103,156.17, stop loss at $111,595.34, and take profit at $90,497.42. However, the confidence level is only 53.85%, which is relatively low.

Market Bias:

• Bearish Bias: The technical indicators (MACD, moving averages, and Bollinger Bands) and the ML model align with a bearish outlook. However, the high volatility and lack of immediate high-impact events suggest caution.

Key Points:

1. Risk/Reward Ratio: The stop loss is 300 pips above the entry, and the take profit is 3,500 pips below the entry, ensuring a 1:3 risk/reward ratio.
2. Volatility Consideration: The ATR of 4,219.58 supports the feasibility of the take profit target within the intraday timeframe.
3. Session Timing: The trade aligns with the current market session (US session), which typically has high liquidity and volatility for BTC.

This trade setup provides a balanced approach to capitalize on the bearish momentum while managing risk effectively.

Disclaimer

Trading involves risk. AI Trading Buddy is a educational tool to aid in decision-making but does not guarantee profitable trades. Always use proper risk management and trade responsibly. Past performance is not indicative of future results.