On the backs of ES, NQ and QQQ hitting a new ATHs we were finally able to see SPY join that club today. As I have said numerous times now I believe this is the start of the next leg up in the markets.
Data wise next week we do have quite a big of big economic data coming through. We are also once again blessed with JPOW speaking on Tuesday at 930am for a policy panel meeting.
In addition we once again have a VERY short week of trading. Thursday July 3rd markets will close at 1pm. They will remain close on Friday for the 4th of July. All markets will reopen as normal on Monday. Due to this I expect a low volume slow grind higher once again next week.
SPY/ ES WEEKLY
This week has brought a major support bounce off the weekly 8ema with a new demand/ support at 594.35/5997. The bulls have quickly established a big support area from 579.23-594.35/ 5913-5997. The one interesting thing here is that on ES we have made back to back higher highs on the weekly BUT we have NOT seen stronger buyers that last two weeks.
However, objectively here this looks like a major bull flag break out. With this major yellow bull channel support bounce into August/ September this give us an upside target of 660/6700. This would give the markets about 7% further upside over the next two months which aligns perfectly with the 5-10% leg up I mentioned before.
Generally speaking I see zero reason to be bearish in this market… there realistically needs to be some sort of major black swan event to turn this around… we should be looking for the summer bull run.
SPY WEEKLY LEVELS
Supply- 609.64
Demand- 579.23 -> 594.35
ES WEEKLY LEVELS
Supply- 6130
Demand- 5813 -> 5997
QQQ/ NQ WEEKLY
Here on QQQ/ NQ weekly we actually have an identical setup… we have a new weekly demand/ support bounce off 8ema support at 526.55/21783. We also broke out and closed a new ATHs here. However, we are lacking weekly buyers for back to back weeks now. This largely is being pushed up by momentum here as we are in extreme daily and weekly bull momentum on Es, SPY, QQQ and NQ.
I still standby that I don’t see any reason in this market to be short and this 506.7-526.55/ 20977-21783 demand area is strong and I don’t see outside of a major black swan any thing breaking us through that.
Upside target into September is 610/ 25000 area. That gives QQQ/ NQ a slightly bigger upside move of about 11% over the next two months.
QQQ WEEKLY LEVEL
Supply- 538.18
Demand- 526.55
NQ WEEKLY LEVEL
Supply- 22192
Demand- 20977 -> 21783
VX/ VIX DAILY
Today was an interesting day on Vx/ VIX… despite the strength this morning on Es/ NQ (largely due to buyers) we actually say Vx/ VIX continue to rise most of the morning into the afternoon. Again as we are hitting new ATHs in this market I do find it odd that we are not seeing the 12-13 area on VIX.
I actually find it even more interesting that on VX we have not even broken through the 17.8-18.14 area. This will be interesting to watch as we go forward. There is a possibility that we could see Vx/ VIX hang out in this area despite a push to new ATHs. Largely the last 2 months of upside has been related to VIX crush and options driven. IF we finally see buyers come in here VX/ VIX could even push slightly higher with price action.
BITCOIN DAILY
One thing about Bitcoin is that when we get a very large move (whether up or down) a lot of times BTC likes to consolidate for a very long time before making its next move. We saw a major backtest of support/ demand of 100843 which brough a major 50ema support bounce too.
That was the opportunity for the bears to take this lower and back to 95k area. However, this is a great support bounce and we now have a major range that we have been trading in since middle of May from 100843-103765 to 109176-111385. I generally am liking more upside than downside here on BTC. However, this range and consolidation could certainly be sticking around for a while!
Bulls need to break through 109176-111385 in order to seek out ATHs. Bears need to close under 100843 to look for that 95k retest.
WEEKLY TRADING LOG
Well this was not how I expected this week to go! I definitely thought I would get a FFF and TFY payout. I did secure my FFF payout but I screwed up on TFY. I was blessed that there was known issues with tradeovate and now I get a 2nd shot at this payout.
FFF- support did not unfortunately fix all 5 accounts despite the issues. However, they were kind enough to fix 2 of my 5! I am slowly trying to recover these accounts... whether it takes me 5 days or 15 days to get a payout its worth it... I have built back some cushion here on the 3 that did not get fixed... next week I plan to do a lot of the same slow and steady.
Tradeify- I got confirmation last night that I would get my 5 accounts restored to Mondays EOD balance. I have not heard back when that will happen. Currently the closed accounts balances and consistency has been restored properly. The issue is that they need to re-activate the accounts which has not happened just yet. I do hope early next week that will occur. I got my email notification today that they refunded me my other 5 new S2F accounts I opened. They have been closed however, I do not see the funds in my account just yet. Hopefully sometime next week this is all resolved and I can get my one trading day in. I just need about $250 on 3 accounts and about $350 on 2 accounts to finally get my 15k payout. Todays trading is largely how I would like to trade this summer. Slow and steady… buy the dip.
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