Bitcoin Review for Today

Lets Review!

The Fed's rate decision will be on people's minds so we'd like to anticipate what BTC will do going up to and then after tomorrow's event

Over the last 24-hours Bitcoin experienced a significant price pump only to be faded slightly over the time from 12pm until midnight more or less

Here are some of my thoughts on the bull narrative

• A bull flag flying at half mast or it will be taken as a 1/4 retrace on the way back up to a higher resolution

• If any resistance gets disrespected at these levels it will mean "supply levels don't hold" it means we are in an entirely new trading range which sets objectives up to 118, 119, etc

• It has yet to be seen if the narrative propelling BTC to 124 or 125 is still here, even if under the hood there are things going on to create the actions needed to lift Bitcoin to such a bigger market cap

Judging by the looks of this the Risk/Reward looks much worse than what I originally thought

the risks of being bearish are always around, but sometimes they are more elevated

Here are some things about the bearish narrative

Price edged slightly higher than the gap in futures prices

"economic times source" There’s also been a filling of CME futures gaps, which often act as technical support or resistance. When gaps get filled, market inefficiencies are reduced, which can help trend continuation. Now that this hurdle has been overcome the level becomes less relevant and the market can focus on something much higher or lower; think of us being at a crossroads

Sum of some bearish news items: Spot Bitcoin ETFs have been a big driver of demand. Any slowdown or net outflows would be interpreted as waning institutional appetite. that could trigger a near-term correction.

Lets look again at one of the filters we have for technical analysis or the overall sentiment about price action

Highlights about the bullish undercurrents set at around the 111,087 level

Here is an example of Bitcoin on the 50 period moving average [set to 12 hours]

In our example price is pressing against the 50 EMA but not creating much distance above it, and the EMA slope is modest → this suggests the market is still testing, not trending.

This is one of the cases where price is only slightly above the EMA and the slope of the EMA is flat or barely rising, it signals weak momentum.