Nice read 👍

Overview of the Companies and Their Interconnections The three companies you mentioned—Scilex Holding Company (SCLX), Datavault AI Inc. (DVLT), and Semnur Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (SMNR)—are publicly traded and interconnected through ownership, investments, and a pending dividend structure. Here’s a brief review based on current data as of October 16, 2025:

• SCLX (Scilex Holding Company): A pharmaceutical company focused on non-opioid pain management products. Current stock price: $13.40. Market cap: ~$99M. Shares outstanding: ~7.4M (basic).

• SMNR (Semnur Pharmaceuticals, Inc.): A biotech company developing non-opioid treatments for back pain, with its lead candidate SP-102 (SEMDEXA™) having estimated peak annual sales potential of $3.6B in its 5th year post-launch (per independent research). It became public via a SPAC merger with Denali Capital Acquisition Corp. on September 22, 2025, and trades on OTC Markets. SCLX owns approximately 87% of SMNR. Current stock price: $9.00. Market cap: ~$2.07B. Shares outstanding: ~230M (implied from market cap and price).

• DVLT (Datavault AI Inc.): An AI-driven data management company. On September 25, 2025, SCLX made a $150M strategic investment in DVLT via a securities purchase agreement, with the initial tranche closed (SCLX received 15M DVLT shares, worth ~$27M at current prices, paid partly in Bitcoin). This represents about 8% ownership in DVLT. Current stock price: $1.82. Market cap: ~$340M. Shares outstanding: ~187M (implied from market cap and price). These companies are linked primarily through SCLX: It majority-owns SMNR and has invested significantly in DVLT (the $150M investment exceeds SCLX’s own market cap, suggesting SCLX may be using cash reserves or other assets). The DVLT investment appears aimed at leveraging AI for pharma applications, but no direct operational ties to the dividend are evident.

The Preferred Stock Dividend Situation The key event tying SCLX and SMNR is a proposed stock dividend from SCLX, initially announced in 2024. It involves distributing 5,000,000 shares of Series 1 Mandatory Exchangeable Preferred Stock (par value $0.0001) pro-rata to SCLX shareholders and certain securityholders. The preferred shares are automatically exchangeable for a pro-rata portion of the lesser of:

• 10% of SCLX’s ownership interest in SMNR (currently ~8.7% of SMNR overall, valued at ~$180M based on SMNR’s $2.07B market cap), or • $200M divided by SMNR’s closing price 10 trading days prior to the determination date (the earlier of the SPAC merger effective time or SEC registration effectiveness).

The exchange would result in freely tradable SMNR common stock upon completion. The dividend was conditioned on the SMNR SPAC merger (which closed on September 22, 2025), but the record date has been repeatedly deferred: • Original: November 7, 2024. • Changed to January 28, 2025, then April 11, 2025, then May 2, 2025. •
As of June 23, 2025, the record date was deferred indefinitely, with no new date set. The board retains discretion to set a new date, change terms, or revoke the dividend (e.g., due to solvency concerns or material changes). No reasons for deferrals were explicitly stated in announcements, but they may relate to regulatory, financial, or market conditions (e.g., SMNR’s OTC status and low trading volume of ~62 shares average daily). The dividend remains “expected” but uncertain, as it’s tied to board approval and could unlock ~$180M in value for SCLX shareholders (~$24 per SCLX share based on current shares outstanding and SMNR valuation). However, market pricing suggests skepticism, as SCLX’s price hasn’t fully reflected this potential value. DVLT is not directly involved in this dividend.

Expected Earnings (EPS and Revenue Estimates) Based on analyst consensus (limited coverage: 1 analyst each for SCLX and DVLT; none for SMNR), here are the expected earnings per share (EPS) and revenue for 2025 (current year) and 2026 (next year). All figures in USD; growth projections compare to prior year actuals. Note: These are forward-looking and subject to high uncertainty in biotech/AI sectors.

• SCLX: • 2025 EPS: -$3.51 (from 1 analyst; year-ago: -$15.65). • 2026 EPS: $3.11 (year-over-year growth: +188.6%). • 2025 Revenue: $105M (growth: +85.6% from $56.6M year-ago). • 2026 Revenue: $319M (growth: +204% year-over-year). • Quarterly: Q3 2025 EPS -$0.41 (growth: +70%); Q4 2025 EPS +$0.07 (growth: +103%). • DVLT: • 2025 EPS: -$0.44 (from 1 analyst; year-ago: -$5.31). • 2026 EPS: -$0.39 (year-over-year growth: not meaningful, as losses narrow). • 2025 Revenue: $14M (growth: +424% from $2.7M year-ago). • 2026 Revenue: $45M (growth: +221% year-over-year). • Quarterly: Q3 2025 EPS -$0.07 (growth: +95%); Q4 2025 EPS -$0.07 (growth: -110%). • SMNR: • No analyst EPS or revenue estimates available, as coverage hasn’t started post-merger. As a pre-revenue biotech, it’s likely reporting losses while advancing SP-102 through FDA approval (Phase 3 data expected to support NDA filing).

These estimates factor in operational growth but may not fully incorporate the dividend’s potential impact (e.g., SCLX’s 2026 profitability projection could be boosted if the SMNR stake distribution unlocks value or reduces balance sheet strain). Expected Price Per Share Based on Evaluation Expected stock prices are derived from analyst price targets (where available) and my evaluation of the dividend situation, company interconnections, and market dynamics. Targets represent 12-month forecasts. Note: Biotech stocks like these are volatile, influenced by regulatory risks (e.g., FDA approvals for SCLX/SMNR products), the DVLT investment’s execution, and the dividend’s resolution. The deferred dividend adds uncertainty but could act as a catalyst if executed, potentially adding $20-25 per share to SCLX’s value (based on ~$180M total dividend value divided by ~7.4M shares). Current prices already partially discount operations but not the full dividend upside due to delays.

• SCLX: Analyst consensus target: $14.00 (from TipRanks, based on recent ratings; implies ~4% upside from $13.40 current). Other sources show inflated targets ($350+), likely unadjusted for past reverse splits—I’ve disregarded them. Evaluation: If the dividend proceeds, intrinsic value could rise to $35-40 (current price + ~$24 dividend value), but deferral risks keep near-term expectations modest. Strong 2026 EPS turnaround supports moderate growth.

• DVLT: Analyst consensus target: $3.00 (from 1 analyst, “Strong Buy”; implies ~65% upside from $1.82 current). Evaluation: The $150M SCLX investment provides capital for AI expansion, potentially accelerating revenue growth. If integration with SCLX’s pharma ops yields synergies, price could exceed $3; otherwise, persistent losses cap it near $2.50-3.50.

• SMNR: No analyst targets available (newly public with minimal coverage). Evaluation: Current $9.00 price reflects $2.5B pre-merger valuation, but low volume and OTC status suggest illiquidity. If SP-102 advances (e.g., FDA approval), price could reach $15-20 based on $3.6B peak sales potential; however, as a pre-revenue company, downside risk to $5-7 if delays occur. The SCLX dividend, if issued, could increase trading interest in SMNR. In summary, the dividend remains a key wildcard —its issuance could significantly boost SCLX and indirectly support SMNR, while DVLT benefits from SCLX’s funding. Monitor SCLX announcements for dividend updates, as resolution could drive re-ratings. These are not investment advice; consult financial sources for real-time data.