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Here is Your Complete Market Rundown (02/19/2026)
Company News
Walmart Inc. (WMT)
Performance Overview
1D Change: -1.38%
5D Change: -3.05%
News Volume: 141
Unusual Volume Factor: 6x
Walmart Beats Q4 Estimates But Conservative Outlook Pressures Shares as Amazon Claims Revenue Crown
Walmart reported fourth-quarter fiscal 2026 results on February 19 that modestly exceeded expectations, but a cautious full-year forecast under new CEO John Furner sent shares lower. The retailer posted revenue of $190.7 billion, up 5.6% year-over-year, and adjusted earnings per share of $0.74, beating the $0.73 estimate by a penny. Operating income rose 10.8% to $8.7 billion, demonstrating strong margin expansion.
Despite the solid quarterly performance, Walmart’s conservative profit outlook disappointed Wall Street, with management citing a “fluid” and “somewhat unstable” economic backdrop. The company referenced a “hiring recession” and consumer pressures as factors constraining its earnings forecast for the coming year. Shares initially fell as much as 3.2% in premarket trading before recovering somewhat during the session, though the stock posted its worst three-day return in 11 months. The quarter showcased continued strength in e-commerce and digital channels, with particular momentum from higher-income households.
Management noted that the majority of Q4 spending came from shoppers earning over $100,000 annually, a demographic Walmart has steadily captured through competitive pricing and convenience. The company’s CFO indicated that overall price increases remained modest at approximately 1% in Q4, with grocery inflation limited to just 0.6%, though late 2025 tariffs averaging 20% on Chinese goods created cost pressures in certain categories. Walmart announced a $30 billion stock buyback program and emphasized its AI-driven transformation initiatives, positioning technology investments as central to its retail strategy. The CFO later hinted that profit guidance could be raised, helping shares pare losses.
The earnings report coincided with a significant milestone for rival Amazon, which officially surpassed Walmart as the world’s largest company by annual revenue. Amazon reported $716.9 billion in net sales for 2025, narrowly edging Walmart’s $713.5 billion for the year ended January 31, marking the first time the e-commerce giant claimed the top revenue position. Analysts maintained generally positive views on Walmart’s fundamentals despite the cautious outlook, with several noting the company’s conservative forecasting track record and recommending buying on weakness.
Booking Holdings Inc. (BKNG)
Performance Overview
1D Change: -6.06%
5D Change: -7.07%
Booking Holdings Plunges 9% Despite Earnings Beat as AI Concerns and Cooling Travel Demand Trigger Analyst Downgrades
Booking Holdings reported Q4 results that beat revenue expectations at $6.35 billion but missed on earnings per share at $44.22. The stock tumbled 9% to a 52-week low as investors reacted to signs of cooling travel demand and mounting concerns over AI disruption to the online travel industry. The company announced a 25-to-1 stock split effective April 2026. Analysts issued widespread price target cuts following the results, though most maintained positive outlooks.
HSBC leads with the most bullish view at 96% upside, while Cantor Fitzgerald’s reduced target implies just 5% upside. DA Davidson specifically cited AI-related uncertainty in lowering its target to $6,000. Investor anxiety has intensified as hotel chains increasingly partner directly with AI firms, potentially bypassing traditional online travel platforms like Booking Holdings and threatening their intermediary business model.
Deere & Company (DE)
Performance Overview
1D Change: 9.91%
5D Change: 6.34%
Deere Surges to Record High on Earnings Beat and Raised Profit Forecast
Deere & Company shares soared 13% to an all-time high of $633.69 following a strong first-quarter earnings report that exceeded expectations. The agricultural and construction equipment maker posted revenue of $9.61 billion, beating estimates of $7.59 billion and marking a 13% year-over-year increase. The company raised its full-year profit forecast, citing successful cost-cutting measures and recovery in its construction and small agriculture segments.
CEO commentary indicated 2026 represents the bottom of the farm equipment slump. Despite initial concerns over declining net income, the raised guidance and substantial earnings beat drove the stock higher in premarket trading, where it gained over 6% before extending gains throughout the session.
Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY)
Performance Overview
1D Change: 9.31%
5D Change: 9.05%
Occidental Petroleum Surges on Strong Q4 Results and Major Debt Reduction
Occidental Petroleum shares jumped over 5% in pre-market trading Thursday after beating Q4 earnings estimates and announcing a $5.8 billion debt reduction alongside a dividend increase. Mizuho Securities raised its price target to $67 from $64, citing 42% upside potential for the Warren Buffett-backed energy company.
Separately, Occidental-backed Western Midstream Partners has expressed takeover interest in Kinetik Holdings, according to the Financial Times. The debt cut and shareholder-friendly moves impressed investors, driving unusual call option activity and making OXY one of Thursday’s biggest stock movers.
Macro Events
US Trade Deficit Surges to $70.3 Billion in December, Marking One of Largest Annual Gaps Since 1960
The US trade deficit widened sharply to $70.3 billion in December, exceeding the $55.5 billion forecast and November's $56.8 billion. Full-year 2025 deficit reached $901.5 billion, among the largest since 1960, driven by a 5.2% jump in imports.
Minneapolis Fed's Kashkari Signals Rates Near Neutral as Policy Holds Steady
Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari indicated interest rates are approaching neutral levels, with the Fed close to achieving both employment and inflation mandates. He noted the 10-year Treasury yield's stability suggests a higher neutral rate, while describing the labor market as resilient despite recent softening.
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index Surges to 16.3, Beating Expectations as Tariff Costs Triple for Midsized Firms
Philadelphia Fed's manufacturing index jumped to 16.3 in February, exceeding the 7.7 forecast, though underlying components weakened and pricing pressures eased. JPMorgan analysis reveals tariffs paid by midsized US firms tripled last year. Fed's Kashkari described the labor market as resilient despite softening.
Supreme Court Tariff Ruling Looms as Investors Anticipate 2026 Decision on Trump Trade Policy
Most investors expect the Supreme Court to block Trump tariffs in 2026, according to Goldman Sachs, with potential implications for the U.S. budget outlook, trade deficit, and small business operations amid ongoing legal uncertainty.
Geopolitics Events
Trump Warns Iran on Deal as U.S. Deploys Forces Amid Rising Tensions
President Trump gave Iran a 10-day window to reach a meaningful agreement, warning of consequences while noting ongoing talks. The U.S. deployed additional military assets including B-2 bombers as prediction markets show heightened strike probability. Trump announced $10 billion U.S. contribution to Gaza reconstruction alongside $7 billion from allies.
Trump Faces Dual Confrontations as G-7 and Iran Tensions Escalate
President Trump prepares for December's G20 summit in Miami while navigating mounting challenges. French President Macron plans G-7 confrontation over social media regulation. Simultaneously, U.S.-Iran tensions intensify with military buildup and Netanyahu warning of "unprecedented" response to potential Iranian attacks amid renewed Geneva nuclear negotiations.
Oil And Gas Events
Oil Prices Surge to Six-Month High on Escalating US-Iran Tensions
Oil markets jumped as Trump weighs potential military action against Iran within ten days, with Goldman Sachs warning investors to brace for increased volatility. Energy stocks lifted Canadian markets as crude prices climbed on geopolitical uncertainty.
US Crude Oil Inventories Drop Sharply as Demand Strengthens
The Energy Information Administration reported a significant decline in US crude oil and fuel stockpiles, reflecting rising demand. The inventory drawdown signals potential upward pressure on crude prices in the near term.
Crypto Events
Bitcoin Drops Below $66K as Crypto Markets Face ETF Outflows and Technical Weakness
Bitcoin fell into oversold territory below $66,000 while Ethereum broke through $2,000 support amid broader crypto market declines. Major cryptocurrencies including XRP and Dogecoin slid as Bitcoin ETFs experienced significant outflows, with technical indicators suggesting continued downward pressure ahead.
XRP Holds Range Despite Bullish Sentiment as Crypto ETFs See Outflows
XRP remains range-bound near $1.51 despite improving trader sentiment and rising volume targeting $1.70. The token faces key resistance with $47 million in short positions at risk, while broader crypto ETFs including Bitcoin and Ether post outflows.
Technology Events
Nvidia Dips as AI Infrastructure Stocks Show Mixed Signals Amid Data Center Expansion
Nvidia shares declined despite positive sentiment around OpenAI's fundraising. Goldman projects nearly 30% upside for an unnamed tech stock on AI data center demand. Raspberry Pi surged 50% weekly, while Bitdeer fell 15.8% pre-market on share sale plans to fund AI datacenter expansion and debt repurchase.
AI Stocks Draw Investor Focus Ahead of Key Earnings Reports
Multiple AI-related companies face investor scrutiny as earnings season approaches, with Snowflake and Credo preparing quarterly results. Analysts highlight emerging opportunities in physical AI applications and data infrastructure, while RingCentral faces questions balancing AI initiatives against growth deceleration.
Real Estate Events
US Pending Home Sales Drop 0.8% in January, Defying Forecasts
Pending home sales fell 0.8% in January following December's 7.4% decline, missing economist expectations of a 2% increase, according to the National Association of Realtors, as buyers remain hesitant despite lower mortgage rates.
Real Estate Sector Shows Mixed Signals as Earnings Season Unfolds
Real estate investment trusts reported quarterly results, with Medical Properties Trust reaching a 52-week high of $6.36. Choice Properties and ARMOUR Residential released Q4 2025 earnings, while Gaming & Leisure Properties prepares to report with investor attention on leverage metrics.
US Mortgage Rates Drop to 6.01%, Lowest Since September 2022
Mortgage rates for 30-year fixed loans fell to 6.01% from 6.09% last week, marking the lowest level in over three years according to Freddie Mac, potentially easing affordability pressures in the stagnant housing market.
Corporate Actions Events
Hims & Hers Acquires Australian Telehealth Firm Eucalyptus for $1.15 Billion
Hims & Hers Health agreed to acquire Australia's Eucalyptus for up to $1.15 billion to accelerate international expansion. The deal includes $240 million cash at close with deferred payments and performance-based earnouts through early 2029, expected to close mid-2026.
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