German State Bank forecasts BTC price of 90,000 USD

Megatrend Digitization - Is Bitcoin Gold outstripping the rank?

In the study, the two banks strike an unusually positive tone towards Bitcoin. The study uses the above-mentioned stock-to-flow model to analyse the value of Bitcoin.

According to the investigations of the Research Department of Bayern LB, Bitcoin currently has a stock-to-flow value of 25.8. This increases abruptly to 53 after the halving in May 2020. This is due to the fact that the block rewards for miners are halved from the current 12.5 to 6.25 at the event which takes place every 4 years. This will also halve the supply of new Bitcoin (Flow), making each Bitcoin all the more valuable on paper.

Extract from the content:

To check the plausibility of the estimate results, we also deduct the market capitalizations and stock to flow ratios of gold, silver, platinum and palladium. The sources here are the classical publications in which stocks and production quantities are reported. In particular, we are faced with the question of which is the appropriate number for the respective production. In order to keep the data mining process simple, we consider only mine production as production, i.e. the process that "uses the Earth", i.e. adding a new raw material to the economic cycle. Bitcoin is gold close on its heels...

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https://i.redd.it/lbj2o7vyx3q31.jpg

^{Logarithmic scales, x-axis: stock to flow values, y-axis: market capitalization in USD (billions}****)

The most exciting thing, of course, is looking to the future. That's how Bitcoin's Stock to Flow-value in May 2020 - i.e. after the next halving: From currently approx. On the other hand, Gold's stock to flow value of currently around 58 will rise from 25.8 to almost 53 in May 2020. are only marginally higher, if at all. If you take this May value for Bitcoins Stock to Flow in the model feeds, comes a dizzying price of about 90,000 USD per Bitcoin*. Accordingly, in the current price of around 8,000 USD, the the pending halving effect is hardly priced in (the current model value is approx. 7,500 USD).\*

Conclusion: Bitcoin has been designed to be even harder than gold.

Source (PDF):

https://www.bayernlb.de/internet/media/ir/downloads_1/bayernlb_research/megatrend_publikationen/megatrend_bitcoins2f_20190930.pdf?fbclid=IwAR0irYEMQnZ6g5NnYO9_b9rbrtcxrAVe3sOkprERTx6yADmHQ_IXXqEnNDg