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05-APR-2019 Cryptocurrency (Elliott Wave): Bull Market…?
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5128394.msg50467456#msg50467456
20-APR-2019 Cryptocurrency (Elliott Wave): Easter Update
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5128394.msg50681435#msg50681435
12-MAY-2019 Cryptocurrency (Elliott Wave): Sell In May And Go Away?
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5128394.msg51017295#msg51017295
17-JUN-2019 Cryptocurrency (Elliott Wave): Solstice Update
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5128394.msg51505513#msg51505513
28-JUL-2019 Cryptocurrency (Elliott Wave): Inflection Point
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5128394.msg51975328#msg51975328
26-OCT-2019 Cryptocurrency (Elliott Wave): Trick or Treat…?
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5128394.msg52880531#msg52880531
The 2019 Bitcoin bull market parabolically surged 345% from the low of 15-DEC-2018 to the high of 26-JUN-2019. Since the 26-JUN-2019 high, the market was spooked with a 48% decline into the low of 23-OCT-2019.
From an Elliott Wave perspective, two scenarios are under consideration at this inflection point: a continuing Bull Scenario (Preferred) or a Bear Scenario (Alternative).
In either scenario, the Elliott Wave model proposes a five wave structure, consisting of: three advancing bull market waves, interwoven with two declining bear market waves. Overlaying this model onto Bitcoin suggests:
Wave-1: the first bull market wave 2010-2013 (1219 days), followed by; Wave-2: the first bear market wave 2013-2015 (426 days), followed by; Wave-3: the second bull market wave 2015-2018 (1065 days), followed by; Wave-4: the second bear market wave 2018-2019 (363 days), followed by; Wave-5: the third and final bull market wave 2019-?—BLX: https://i.imgur.com/Ukei46V.jpg
The five aforementioned have been considered as PRIMARY degree waves —such waves elapse the course of a few months to a couple of years. Each PRIMARY degree wave is constituted of five INTERMEDIATE degree waves; and in turn, so forth into smaller degree fractals.
The Bullish Scenario (Preferred) suggests Wave-5 is still underway, and the bulls shall be treated to subdividing and extending waves headed for new all-time highs.
The Bear Scenario (Alternative) suggests a trick Wave-5 completed at the 26-JUN-2019 high as a truncated fifth wave failure, and a bear market is underway.
Bull Scenario (Preferred)
The preferred bullish scenario suggests a continuing bull market is underway. PRIMARY[5] wave started from the 06-FEB-2019 low, and has completed its first parabolic uptrend labelled as INTERMEDIATE(1) wave at the 26-JUN-2019 high.
INTERMEDIATE(2) wave pullback started at the 26-JUN-2019 high, and retraced an almost Fibonacci 61.8% thus far into the 23-OCT-2019 low. This 4-month decline unfolded in a three wave A-B-C structure. With technical momentum indicators such as the RSI (Relative Strength Index) positively diverging from price action on multiple timeframes, it appears the pullback may be complete. However, the first set of five rising impulsive waves are yet to be discernible from the 23-OCT-2019 low.
—BTC: https://i.imgur.com/198OpNL.jpg
—GBTC: https://i.imgur.com/o5AdxtK.jpg
Any further extended declines for INTERMEDIATE(2) wave pullback ought to be concluded at the following Fibonacci support zones, using BITSTAMP:
@7230: 61.8% Fibonacci retracement from 15-DEC-2018 to 26-JUN-2019. [AVG] @5425: 78.6% Fibonacci retracement from 15-DEC-2018 to 26-JUN-2019. [MAX] @4350: 88.6% Fibonacci retracement from 15-DEC-2018 to 26-JUN-2019. [WARNING: Bull Market Terminated?]From the 23-OCT-2019 low, the continuing bull market scenario would now suggest the start of a rising INTERMEDIATE(3) wave. Such a wave is expected to unfold parabolically in nature, and at a minimum, meet or exceed the PRIMARY[3] high set on 17-DEC-2017. In both price and time, this wave is expected to be the longest of the PRIMARY[5] bull market. Subdividing and extending parabolic waves on exponential price scales are challenging to track. The maximum declines within INTERMEDIATE(3) wave ought to be around 40% in size, with averages of 20%-25%.
Where the PRIMARY[5] bull market ends is open to interpretation and speculation.
From an Elliott Wave perspective: A common wave relationship guides the price of the fifth wave to be equal to; or extend a Fibonacci 1.618 times; the length from the low of the first wave through to the high of third wave; projected from the low of the fourth wave. This provides a conservative target of the current bull market to conclude between $22,912 and $35,127, calculated using the BraveNewCoin (BLX) index:
@22912: PRIMARY[5] = (PRIMARY[1] + PRIMARY[3]) * 1 @35127: PRIMARY[5] = (PRIMARY[1] + PRIMARY[3]) * 1.618—BLX: https://i.imgur.com/x0gEyIX.jpg
As and when the waves develop and progress, and in the event of subdividing and extending waves, revised price targets shall be calculated with renewed projections.
Bear Scenario (Alternative)
The alternative bear market scenario suggests the 2019 bull market was a short-lived affair, and PRIMARY[5] terminated as a failed-fifth truncated wave at the 26-JUN-2019 high.
In this scenario, five completed PRIMARY degree waves have completed a CYCLE I wave structure. And now a CYCLE II wave bear market pullback is underway and headed to break below the 2018 low.
—BLX: https://i.imgur.com/c9Ojb57.jpg
The decline from the 26-JUN-2019 high to the 23-OCT-2019 low completed the first leg of the bear market. And now, the first bounce of the bear market may be currently underway retracing towards the following Fibonacci zones, using BITSTAMP prices:
@9810: 38.2% Fibonacci retracement from 26-JUN-2019 to 23-OCT-2019. [MIN] @10590: 50.0% Fibonacci retracement from 26-JUN-2019 to 23-OCT-2019. [AVG] @11365: 61.8% Fibonacci retracement from 26-JUN-2019 to 23-OCT-2019. [AVG] @12470: 78.6% Fibonacci retracement from 26-JUN-2019 to 23-OCT-2019. [MAX]Once the bear market bounce completes at any of the aforementioned resistance zones, the next phase of the decline is expected to commence, and break below the 2018 low.
—BTC: https://i.imgur.com/VJNadVv.jpg
At this point in time, the alternative bear market scenario may be paused for consideration whilst price action remains above the 23-OCT-2019 low.
The alternative bear market scenario may be gradually phased-out, step-by-step as follows:
- A rising five wave impulsive structure from the 23-OCT-2019 low.
- Price advancing beyond the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement from 26-JUN-2019 to 23-OCT-2019.
- Price exceeding the 26-JUN-2019 high.
BITSTAMP support zones: 8850, 8500, 7230, 5425, 4350 BITSTAMP resistance zones: 9810, 10590, 11365, 12470, 13130, 16260, 17930Analysis is purely speculative, and projections are indicative of price & structure, not time. Happy Halloween!
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