Bitcoiners should become familiar with the term "Wall of Worry", a classic of financial markets. The climb from the bottom is always volatile and uncertain... for good psychological and fundamental reasons.
Psychologically post crash many investors are easily spooked, quick to sell with negative news, quick to lock in profits. Fundamentally large volumes bought at bubble prices will use any price rise to liquidate.
VWAP and similar measures help gauge at what price those sellers might be willing to unload. A quick look at volumes since 2017 will show very obvious resistance at around $8000 and $14000 and pretty solid support near $3000.
That $14k resistance will not be broken easily. As soon as the price nears it, the bears will wake up. All those who chased the bubble with little conviction will see this as their chance to exit.
My (wild) guess:
2013 Bubble (x10) $100 -> $1000
...
2014 Crash (x0.15) $1000 -> $150
2015 Recovery (x3) $150 -> $450
2016 Acc (x2) $450 -> $1000
2017 Bubble (x20) $1000 -> $20.000
...
2018 Crash (x0.15) $20.000 -> $3.000
2019 Recovery (x2) $3.000 -> $6.000
2020 Acc (x2) $6.000 -> $12.000
2021 Bubble (x20) $12.000 -> $240.000
Of course history does not have to repeat itself... but in the absence of any other guide...
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