For Trading May 6th

Oil +20% Again

Rally Fades by Half

Today’s market got off to a strong start yet again but at the end of the day we had two down waves starting around 2:45 that cut gains by about 2/3. Market internals were a bit on the soft side with NYSE A/D only 4:3 and NASDAQ 17:15. Volume was lighter than the past few days and the DJIA had 21 up and 9 down. The biggest losers were BA -41 and MCD -18 DPs while the gainers were UNH +37, AAPL +30 and HD +26 DPs. All these names were higher before the last hour with AAPL trading $301 but finishing $297.80. The news of the day on the economy was not great. ISM Non-manufacturing Index for Aprildropped to 41.8from 52.5 in March. 50% is the breakpoint for expansion/contraction. The trade balance showed a widening in the deficit to $44.4 billion from $39.8 in February. Exports were down $20 billion. Tomorrow we have the ADP Employment change report for April and weekly MBA Mortgage applications.

Our “open forum” on Discord, which allows me to interact with subscribers and others to allow direct questions and chart opinions on just about any stock, continues to grow with more participants every day. It is informative and allows me to share insights as the market is open and moving. The link is: https://discord.gg/ATvC7YZ and I will be there and active from before the open and all day. It’s a great place to share ideas and gain some insights, and we’ve grown to almost 1900 members. I also did this video titled “How to survive being an options trader and not blow up your account,” over the long weekend. I think it’s very informative as a guide to stock selection and option choices. The link is https://youtu.be/Y7H9RpWfLlo Enjoy!!

Tonight’s closing comment video https://drive.google.com/file/d/1RxpgADmtffzTPWRgeZ_UrfL4LszWvZR1/view?usp=sharing

SECTORS: Earnings played a part in today’s market. NEM was a strong report and the stock, already up from $58 on Friday finished the day $64.91 +2.17 (3.46%), DIS was the big loser with volumes down due to closed parks and no production taking place at the studios. Streaming is strong, but a big piece is being done at reduced rates or even for free. At the close the stock was $101.06 -2.12 but after a small rally, the conference call started and after the company disclosed it is suspending its dividend for the first half it slid to 99.25. BYND reported good sales growth and the recent closures of several major meat processing plants has been buoying prices. The stock has rallied off an April low of $57 and closed today $100.16 +5.00 and is currently trading $105 + $5 more.

Two companies in the same business, EA and ATVI went in opposite directions. EA was a miss and after closing $119.61 +2.78 it fell t0 112.12 and is currently 113.98 – 5.62. Activision (ATVI) beat handily and it had closed 68.53 +1.83 and is now $72.40 + 3.87 more. Pinterest (PINS) had risen from a low of $10.10 last month to close $20.81 -.62 but missed on several metrics and has traded down to $16.70 and is $17.15 – 3.66. Also, on the bad news side, UAL finished $24.12 -1.14 (4.5%) and Norwegian Cruise (NCLH) warned about it continuing as a “going concern.” The stock is down from $60 and finished the day $11.18 -3.26 (22.58%).

FOOD SUPPLY: was HIGHER with TSN +1.57, BGS +.77, FLO +.11, CAG -.03, MDLZ +.19, KHC +.02, CALM -.39, JJSF +2.66, SAFM +1.97, and LANC +7.67 (5.68%).

BIOPHARMA: was HIGHER with BIIB +9.46, ABBV +4.14, REGN +32.55 (6.01%), ISRG +15.01, GILD -1.54, MYL +.05, TEVA +.31, VRTX +7.81, BHC +.10, INCY -2.17, ICPT +1.71, LABU +2.58 and IBB $127.00 +2.45 (1.97%).

CANNABIS: This group was LOWER with TLRY -.27, CGC +.10, CRON -.08, GWPH +.72, ACB -.012, PYX -.74, NBEV -.02, CURLF +.06, KERN -.01 and MJ $11.90 -.05 (.42%).

DEFENSE: was HIGHER with LMT +10.14, RTX +.15, GD +1.72, TXT -.34, NOC +6.18, BWXT +3.09 (6.05%), TDY +1.22 and ITA $147.45 +.01.

RETAIL was MIXED with M -.06, JWN -.52, KSS -.27, DDS -1.31 (4.8%), JCP -.0145, WMT +1.04, TGT +.14, TJX +.14, RL +.45, UAA -.31, LULU -.48, TPR unch., CPRI -.07, and XRT $36.16 +.31 (.86%).

FAANG and Big Cap: were HIGHER with GOOGL +36.89, AMZN +7.98, AAPL +5.54, FB +2.39, NFLX -1.65, NVDA +3.94, TSLA +12.31, BABA +4.50, BIDU +.84, CMG -5.75, CAT +1.96, BA -4.96, DIS (see above), and XLK $91.45 +1.37 (1.52%).

FINANCIALS were MIXED with GS +2.97, JPM +.01, BAC -.19, MS -.02, C -1.15, PNC -1.61, AIG +.73, TRV -.06, AXP +.62, V +2.29, and XLF $21.79 -.07 (.32%).

OIL, $24.56 +4.17. Oil was higher overnight and the rally continued on all day. The stocks were mixed with only the big names moving higher. XLE closed $37.52 +.43 (1.16%).

METALS, GOLD: $1,710.60 -2.70. After the recent gains, Gold broke solidly above $1,700 and traded as high as $1788 last Wednesday. We were stopped out of our position in the 5/15 165 calls and I replaced them with the $163 strike. We are also long NEM.

BITCOIN: closed $8985 +50. After we traded in the uptrend, I mentioned this weekend that I felt we would have to test 6750 and yesterday we hit 6465 before turning back up. Today’s action was a continuing move higher with a high of 9560. While I want to add the 350, I still want to wait and see some stabilization. We still own 400 GBTC with an average of $8.06. GBTC closed $10.02 + .05 today.

Tomorrow is another day.

CAM