It wasn't that long ago that Tesla stock was trading at sub-$200 (May 2019), and many people were speculating on Tesla's demise.
If you did a fair evaluation of where Tesla were at the time, and where they said they were going... not much has changed inbetween. Still using the same technology, same factories, and still have the same product pipeline.
If you'd really been paying attention, their 2020 Q1 earnings were no surprise. It was only really the herd's sentiment that changed.
Tesla is now trading close to $1,000/share level, 5x more.
I wonder if there are any parallels with Tesla stock price and the Monero market cap.
Right now it's trading slightly above the levels of 2017 (pre-Bitcoin pump). However, in practice, the technology and UX has improved significantly. Off the top of my head improvements since 2017 include:
- Mobile wallets for Android and iOS (Monerujo/CakeWallet/MyMonero weren't available back then)
- Hardware wallet support from both Ledger and Trezor
- RandomX - which maintains, so far, ASIC resistance
- Bulletproofs, which brought down the size (and thus cost) of transactions
- Larger ring sizes (greater anonymity set)
- Monero only online markets
- Adjacent to all that technology change, the community has also grown. With MoneroKon and sizeable attendance at Defqon and I think others.
Currently the market cap of Monero is less than 1/100 of Bitcoin. However, it's not clear that Monero has less than 1/100 the utility. Therefore the price is more a reflection of demand than it is utility. And demand could potentially change at any minute.
Which leads to the next question... what would need to change, between now and then, to stimulate this?
Possible thoughts from my end:
- Adoption by a large crypto exchange with easy fiat on-ramp (unlikely)
- More services and marketplaces adopting Monero (likely)
- More UX improvements (needed, but not inevitable)
- More evangelism and education - ideally via common social media channels (possible, not inevitable)
- Some sort of global/political/economic event that triggers capital flight into more private forms of value store (possible, but not inevitable)
- Slow spread of awareness and usage globally. Fuelled by documentation translation and individuals who try to spread the knowledge (already happening)
Thoughts / comments / criticism on the above?
No comments:
Post a Comment