For Trading July 15th

For Trading JULY 15th

JPM Earnings a Beat But Loan Loss Grows 875%

NASDAQ Still Weaker

MODERNA Publishes Results

Today’s market got off to a soft start and after an initial dip it started up. The exception was the NASDAQ. I went home with a few SMH puts and as that ETF fell quickly, I took a nice gain only to see it reverse and move higher with the rest of the markets. The early excitement with the DJIA futures quickly evaporated and we didn’t do much from 11:00 – 1:00 but then started higher and after a new high of day, +450 or so, we sold off from 3:00 to 3:30 before another rally to new high of day and a close +556.79 (2.13%), NASDAQ +97.74 (.94%), S&P 500 +42.30 (1.34%), the Russell +24.69 (1.76%) and the DJ Transports +159.29 (1.71%). Market internals were about as expected for an up day with the NYSE 2:1 and NASDAQ 5:3 after its lower open and rally. Volume was down slightly lower than yesterday. The DJIA showed all 30 names up with the biggest winner UNH +60DP’s (earning tomorrow morning), HD +55, AAPL and CAT +43, MCD +39, and TRV, MCD, and V all adding 30 DP’s. The strongest sectors were energy, industrials, health care and materials. Weaker were consumer discretionary and financials. The U.S. Dollar continued weak and commodities were generally higher. Economic numbers, CPI was released this morning and came in at + .6% for CPI, up from an expected .5%, and Core CPI was + .2% vs .1% expected. This meant that the numbers showed benign consume inflation, although anyone who shops in a grocery store knows that’s not the case!

Our “open forum” on Discord, which allows me to interact with subscribers and others to allow direct questions and chart opinions on just about any stock, continues to grow with more participants every day. It is informative and allows me to share insights as the market is open and moving. The link is: https://discord.gg/ATvC7YZ and I will be there and active from before the open and all day. It’s a great place to share ideas and gain some insights, and we’ve grown to almost 3000 members. I also did this video titled “How to survive being an options trader and not blow up your account,” over the long weekend. I think it’s highly informative as a guide to stock selection and option choices. The link is https://youtu.be/Y7H9RpWfLlo Enjoy!!

Tonight’s closing comment video https://youtu.be/PcshhlWfjIc

SECTORS: JP Morgan (JPM) reported earnings that were a beat on both earnings and revenues, but after the numbers moved the stock up in early extended trading, the market started looking at the fact that JPM increased its Loan Loss provisions increased from $1.2billion to a monstrous $10.5billion, an 875% increase. The stock had traded as high as $102.50 early, a level that it never achieved in the official market session. The stock finished $98.21 +.56 (.57%). Also reporting were WFC with a loss and was $24.25 -1.16 (4.57%), C also a disappointment finishing $50.15 -2.05 (3.93%), TRV a loss but closed $118.55 +4.31 (3.77%). Delta (DAL) reported their biggest loss in history and revenues back at 1980’s levels. It fell to 26.11 -.71 (2.65%). The January high was $62.48. On the good news side, Moderna (MRNA) reported that their trial of its Covid-19 vaccine produced twice the therapeutic response of patients that had actually recovered from the disease. The stock, a star since the government gave them a grant to help with the development of the vaccine has moved from a low around $18.00 to $87.00 in May had finished the day $75.04 +3.26 (4.54%) ran up to a new high of $89.76 and is currently trading $86.38 + 11.34 or an additional 12%.

FOOD SUPPLY CHAIN was HIGHER with TSN +1.16, BGS +.80, FLO +.32, CPB +.83, CAG +1.13, MDLZ +1.20, KHC +1.01, CALM +.15, JJSF +2.19, SAFM +1.24, HRL +1.03, SJM +2.51, and PBJ $16.30 +.06 (.37%).

BIOPHARMA was HIGHER with BIIB +4.75, ABBV +2.89, REGN +27.12, ISRG +15.21, GILD -.18, MYL +.37, TEVA +.13, VRTX +9.01, BHC +.33, INCY +2.46, ICPT +.27, LABU +6.31, and IBB $116.00 +4.75 (3.46%).

CANNABIS: was HIGHER with TLRY +.17, CGC +.15, CRON +.13, GWPH +6.31, ACB -.18, CURLF -.07, KERN -.16, and MJ $13.34 +.14 (1.79%).

DEFENSE: was HIGHER with LMT +3.55, GD +.54, TXT +.78, NOC +4.15, BWXT -.42, TDY +7.52, RTX +2.04, and ITA $159.61 +2.56 (1.63%).

RETAIL: was HIGHER with M +.35, JWN +.05, KSS +.78, DDS +.75, WMT +2.84, TGT +1.77, TJX +.19, RL +2.27, UAA +.08, LULU +5.85, TPR +.10, CPRI +.09, and XRT $43.96 +.86 (2.00%).

FAANG and Big Cap: were HIGHER with GOOGL +15.77, AMZ -16.68, AAPL +8.39, FB +1.85, NFLX -4.00, NVDA +15.11, TSLA +66.84, BABA -1.19, BIDU -1.54, CMG +21.08, CAT +7.74, BA +7.51, DIS +4.88, and XLK $107.56 +1.72 (1.63%). PLEASE BE AWARE THAT THESE PRICES ARE LATE MARKET QUOTES AND DO NOT REPRESENT THE 4:00 CLOSES.

FINANCIALS were HIGHER with GS +7.37, JPM +1.45, BAC +.23, MS +.88, C -1.23, PNC +.32, AIG +1.28, TRV +7.13, AXP +2.89, V +5.48, and XLF $23.95 +.39 (1.66%).

OIL, $40.29 +19. Oil was lower in last night’s trading before we rallied in the morning. I mentioned in last night’s charts with comments section in the Weekly Strategies letter, prices are trying to work higher towards $45.00. We needed a close over the previous high close of $40.83 and while we were there, we sold off to close below that number. The stocks were higher with XLE $37.00 +1.65 (4.67%).

GOLD $1,813.40 -.70. It was a continuation rally and a new recovery high of $1,829.80. I have only the NEM August 65 / 70 spread on in the Gold market while we have been back in the Silver (SLV) calls @ $ .92 from Friday. Silver rallied from a down overnight session and the calls closed $1.28 +.16. We also added a GLD 7/24 170 call position @ $1.22 that finished $1.59 +.20.

BITCOIN: closed $9,310 + 40. After trading back to 8985 we rallied back to close – only $5. Since last week we have closed between 9200 – 92.85 every day with narrow ranges and today was a good start to move higher. A break over 10,000 still sends us higher. We added 350 shares of GBTC @ $10.02 to our position of 400 @ $8.06, bringing our average price to $8.97. GBTC closed $9.73 + .13 today.

Tomorrow is another day.

CAM