Tuesday, September 29, 2020

There are plenty of valid arguments for why Bitcoin might fail, but absolutely none of them mean Bitcoin is a bad investment

No-coiners love to talk about Bitcoin tail risks as a reason not to invest:

  • "Governments might try to shut it down"
  • "What if a new coin is the Facebook and Bitcoin is the MySpace"
  • etc. etc.

It is both true that these are valid arguments for why Bitcoin might fail AND that Bitcoin is an incredible investment.

Every single asset has tail risks. The government can ban gold ownership. Tesla might be cooking their books. Apple's HQ might get destroyed by a comet. All possible but low probability events.

The point that no-coiners are missing is that as long as the risk/reward trade-off is favorable, who gives a shit about tail risks. Bitcoin has an extremely favorable risk-adjusted return profile.

tldr: anyone who references tail risks as a reason not to invest in Bitcoin does not truly understand investing.


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