Tuesday, January 5, 2021

Is this statistically significant?

https://preview.redd.it/qkfllyhscj961.png?width=1916&format=png&auto=webp&s=ac6d430db1503d22925c588a2b95cac800d83893

X-axis = past 1-week percent change of the search term "best bitcoin wallet"

Y-axis = future 1-week percent change of the price of bitcoin

From the data, if the number of searches increases by more than 150%, it seems the price of bitcoin almost always increases, however, there are only 10 samples out of 260 of this happening. Likewise, if the number of searches decreases by more than 60%, bitcoin almost always drops.

I understand that the data as a whole has little to no correlation, but my hypothesis is that during extreme events, X might be predictive of Y. Is there any way to prove/disprove this hypothesis?


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