Hey guys,
I have been heavily immersed in the crypto space for about a year now (Since Jan of last year, right before the RONA). I figured it was time for me to put all the things I have learned throughout the last year to good use. So I'm starting with a simple TA for Bitcoin for the week of Feb 15.
*Disclaimer: Not Financial Advise. Just a rando on the internet stating his opinion
First and foremost, it is clear and apparent that we are in a Bull cycle. The likes of which comes into fruition every 4 years due to the Halving event which took place in May of 2020. As most would say, the trend is your friend and the clear long-term price action is trending towards the upside. However, we'll take a closer look at the daily price action using 4hr and 1hr candles to determine the potential price action in the next coming days.
Looking at the 4hr candles, we can see a rising wedge formation that started on Feb 8 after Bitcoin's price pumped from 39K towards the 44K levels which then corrected and ultimately pumped again towards the 48K levels. We can expect the price to fluctuate within the rising wedge between $47,600 to $49,800 respectively within the next coming days.
Unfortunately, the rising wedge is known as a Bearish pattern and signals that the uptrend may be losing steam and ultimately a downwards breakout may be coming. However, I would point out that on Feb 14th late at night, the price action seemed to be breaking out of the rising wedge as a big red candle stick started forming which took the price all the way down towards $45,900. But the Bulls held strong and ultimately brought the price back up within the rising wedge zone. A bullish signal which shows that the Bulls won't go down without a fight.
If indeed the price action breaks down from the rising wedge within the next couple of days, we should pay attention to the $45,900 levels and the $44,300 levels as support. The last line of support comes between $42,500 - $43,000 levels respectively. If we do manage to break down below $42,500 then a larger correction is at hand that would take us down to around 38K.
However, this is Bitcoin, we are in a Bull market, there is a significant amount of Bullish sentiment and the Bears have already tried to break down the price with no luck as the Bulls held strong. If the price continues to fluctuate between the rising wedge zone and the bulls mange to slam past the long-term psychological resistance of 50K, then as long as the 50K levels turn into support we could see an upward breakout from the wedge towards the 54K levels.
Hope you enjoyed this First TA attempt and lets see what happens this week. Cheers.
Update:
There is significant downward pressure right now. The volume, however, is not near the levels as the previous attempted breakout. If this last candle can hold the line, then we may not see a downward move.
I do remember hearing in Alex Mascioli's podcast that the institutions they work with are planning on shorting Bitcoin in February. This may be another attempt from certain institutions at bringing the Bitcoin price down. It will be interesting watching this play out.
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