Monday, May 3, 2021

Scenario Analysis

Stock Market Capitalization is equivalent to 50 Trillion in the United States. Derivatives are quadrillions, but that is irrelevant.

Gold is 11.3 Trillion.

M2 Supply is 20-30 Trillion.

Bond Market is 46 Trillion.

Silver is 1.4 Trillion.

Ethereum is 384 Billion and Bitcoin is roughly 1 Trillion.

Approximately 380M individuals live in North America.

Three primary multivariate factors are involved in the pace of token adoption;

  • Lack of Economic Freedom, Poor Fiscal/Monetary Policies, High Overt Corruption
  • Penetration to Accessibility, Sufficient Infrastructure (Mobile, Internet & Computing Devices)
  • Public Perception of Adoption

And a weaker factor

  • Propensity to Save, Available Income to Invest, IQ differential for delayed time-preference tradeoffs

All networks of humans segregate into lower-ordered clusters of specialization. Nature acts through recursive fragmentation.

  • Division of Labour
  • Comparative Advantage
  • Specialization

Excess energy and time goes into exogenous inputs.

  • Services
  • Subscriptions
  • Patroning

Base Emotions (Entertainment, Removal of Idleness)

  • Greed
  • Lust
  • Interest
  • Stimulation

Emotional intensity (adrenaline, noprephrine, dopamine) drives energetic expenditures and hence economic activity (uptake in neurotransmitters through latent-induced long-term potentiation channels) <--> similar to energetic equilibria functions

  • Sob Stories
  • Drama (correlation to higher ratings)
  • Feel-Goodness, Reciprocity (correlation to sales)
  • Sex
  • Power/Learning
  • Fear

Memory-Based Systems, Multi-Agent Hierarchical Systems

  • Dichotomies Established
  • Binary Confluence of Distributions

Differential Rate determined by Fraction of Share of Dominance, Perceived Utility (3rd order derivative; jerk)

Adoption Functions (Benefit to self, Perceived Certainties/Uncertainties of Benefit, Continual Conditioning of Priors)

Eth is 4k today. 8% adoption in USA. 3-4% in more modest countries, and higher otherwise.

BTC Dominance is 47%. Recall generalization of systems. 70D-20A-10O distribution with most tech.

Taking into account ~120M Tokens at 2-3% inflation YoY, vs 24M Fixed.

Real inflation in life...

Yield curve control strongly implicated, presently some tapering off of balance-sheet; Powell strongly implicated 'tools' ~ discretion at all-cause... similarities to emergency of "gene-therapy" approval. Unsure of desire behind adoption with full pre-immunity and higher relative risks, hospital test payouts. Collusion for profits? Likely with required scheduling. Fertility-Curve Offsets? Population Removal/ Aptitude Decay? Unknown analysis. Antibody-Dependent Enhancement similar to Asian Flu (unlikely, but plausible ploy with greater desire for control after 'mass' symptoms)

Analyzing likelihoods..

  1. Market Sideways - > Spook Drop -> Intervention (Short Term OTM Puts, LEAP Calls) 30%
  2. Market Sideways -> Up x % -> Market Sideways -> Up 1.5x% -> Geometric Acceleration -> Intervention (Timeline 2 years; keep LEAP calls) 60%
  3. Market Sideways or Down (Directional) 10%

uncertainty in high-sigma event when disabled of transference of broker gains.

Also confirmation of all lost of confidence in currency projected 2022-2024

IMF backing SDR? Roll-out CDBC Q32021 or Q42021 during intensification of lock-downs likely.

Pilot-Testing likely 95 days, credit arbitration. Convenience ploy.

Plans of Party in Interests (similar to n-Manifold Spike Curve Integrals)

  • Transfer of Wealth
    • Eugenic Policy (Differential Distribution of Equitable Resources and Opportunities)
      • Stratification via Threshold Increases
      • Concentration, Centralization of Power (All Food Chains, Media, Political Backgrounds)
      • Reduction of Births to below Fert-Levels
      • Increase in age of first-birth, first-marriage, delayed schooling, perverse incentive loans, household formation decline, asymmetrical reproductive fitness/investments - hypergamy
  • Perception Management
    • Crisis -> Solution Framework
    • Conquer & Division
      • Misinformation, Partial Truths, Seeding of Agents
      • Reframing of Public Interests
      • Misdirection to Alternate Scenarios
      • Bad Reporting, Overstatement of Dramatic Situation
      • High verbal IQ, low spatial aptitude (dominance -> biased econ/pol/phil)
      • Demographic Replacement (Benefits to sub-group, grow sub-group - dependency)
      • Carrot * Stick Tactic
      • Strategic Ownership of Military Power

Possibilities

  • Limiting of Freedoms to those Compliant
  • Removal of Asset Ownership (Movement to Purely Life-as-Service/Rent Economy)
  • Digitization of Mental Space / Conceptual Space (NFTs, Contracts, Layer, Virtualization, Ownership Fraction Shares) ~ Scarcity
  • Multiple Instances of ''inflation'' -- codeword signaling for transition of economic system
  • Will tax? or co-exist? or penalize scarce-assets / stock-to-value flow model; for programmable currency and totalitarian control
  • Likely will make all of populous approve of D-currency (simultaneous goal timeline synchronization)
  • Continual removal of videos of opposing narrative(No Biden ~ Little girl videos, Hospitals empty, Models 300x overstated at initialization--> timeline for supply chain attack / internet takedown or hack with simulation possibility 5-sigma observed event 15%)
  • Prominence of ''global reset'' iterated in multiple videos from multiple videos and central banks
  • Reissuance of gold.. as a % of backing. However... likely to chop off.

Assuming a 20-fold adoption...

P.T Ethereum 75,000. Will retain purchasing power of 83 cents (2021Q4 vs Q1) likely.

Historical evidence of purchasing power 4x-5x increase for PMs during hyperinflation. Usually lasts over 2-3 year period. However, difficult to transport and transact. Hypothetical S-Adoption curve. 6%->54% 9x increase. However fraction of all savings/invest are not into token. If 80%-investment up from 15%, inflows assumed 4x or 5x. With 9x. Total 45x. Gold is only <0.8%.

Possibility for alternate token dominance faster than ETH? CDBC, Hedera, Project Dawn, Mojo, Ripple or other..

All politicians demand bribes; noted, BGates 1990s, ZMarker2015s, JackMa&CPP testimonies on live. Chances of non-banning or penalties for ownership greater for sanctioned/work in-tandem with legislators/regulators.

Presently witnessing high-volume in-flows 1st of Month May. Also pending meeting mid-month or next with all high CEOs of all banks soon. Frontrunning ETFs.


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