Hi all hope your having a great day/night.
So not sure how much you know about halving, BTC has an event that will half the rewards per block mined. The last time this happened was back on May 11th 2020 and the next is set for Spring 2024. This event has subsequently been a marking point for a huge rush in the price, in the last 3 halving's bitcoin has had (2013, 2016 and 2020) it has gone up significantly over the next few months. So what's this mean for Ethereum as ETH doesn't have halving? This is correct ETH has a set amount per block but this has actually changed over time. It started with 5 ETH went down to 3 (Byzantium hard fork Oct 2017 EIP-649) then 2 (Constantinople hard fork Feb 2019 EIP-1234) and now is being talked about being put to 1 but this may not happen. As you can see it's not through the same process BTC has were it is written into it for every 4 years until BTC supply is hit.
So what's the triple halving? I have read a lot of an paper by Nikhil Shamapant who is an independent Ethereum analyst and writer of the book the Triple halving. he goes into great detail about how the sell pressure for Ethereum will drop 90% with the upcoming merge. For bitcoin to do this it would be the equivalent of 3 halving events thus triple halving but how can this be possible. So the process of EIP1559 + the move to POS completely with the added demand for Ethereum + the narrative when ETH starts to go up (were actually seeing this right now) will all affect the issuance (the act of issuing or giving out) down by 90% 3x that of a halving event in bitcoin.
Illiquidity Drivers: Stake+DeFi locked up was at 12% market cap, incentives will bring to 30%. Fee burn removes most liquid supply first. Negative stock to flow means no release valve through issuance. Yields cause ETH HODLing to go viral more than BTC HODLing ever could. Yield starts at 25+%, yield is USD price insensitive, attracts more staking & more illiquidity. now we can see that since the London and Altair the
Demand Drivers: New onramps for Retail & Institutional flows: Robinhood, Paypal, Venmo, Futures etc. Funds already did the work to get access to Bitcoin, so access to Ethereum will be faster. US ETF timing is a wildcard chances are getting thinner. Massive relative to Canada ETF’s so expect >1B in capital inflows. At $1T+ market cap, CTA flows, Risk Parity. ETF unlocks ESG (environmental social governance), other discretionary.
Catalyst: Triple Halving event is a known catalyst. EIP1559 already burning. Proof of Stake(PoS) expected in December2021. This is a 90% reduction in issuance (the act of issuing of giving out) equivalent to 3 consecutive Bitcoin halving
Narrative Adoption: price leads narrative. Rise in price & ETH/BTC ratio leads to narrative adoption. ETH is not BTC. Ultra-sound store of value, exploding active accounts & transaction volume, insanely low fees, attractive DeFi & staking yields, Visa accepts stablecoins, NFTs are fun, use-case more intuitive than digital gold. Narrative potential means until ETH search>BTC search, party isn’t over.
If you were watching Crypto in 2017, and you put a price prediction, they probably would’ve all undershot what happened in 2017 due to looking at historical price
"I think it makes sense...it’s part of the reason I got so bullish on Bitcoin a while ago. I said look every time there’s a halving, this happens, and so I’d rather take the bet... even though I don’t have a specific price target, it’s almost like you’re embarrassed to say what you think the actual price target is, you know, if it’s [referring to Bitcoin] sitting there at $7,000 you don’t want to say well it might go to $100,000 … Even for Bitcoin , I didn’t give a price target but I said well, it’s well north of here... I would kind of view Ethereum in the same way where if it’s a good year for bitcoin, I would expect ethereum to also have a very good year, and likely outperform during the bull market of that phase...it’s probably north of here and probably by a considerable amount” - Lyn Alden on a Dec2021 price target for Ethereum, Unchained Podcast on YouTube from early 2021.
Interested in reading the whole paper by Nikhil Shamapant 79 pages but worth a skim at least.
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