Because they are selling at the first dip, FUD, and nothingburger news.
I've been in crypto for over 8 years, and I see new people always assume that if they had entered crypto in early 2017, or even in 2012, they'd be rich now.
They probably wouldn't. I'm not.
They would have sold at the first overhyped news, the first China FUD, just like they are doing now. Just like I did when I was new.
And there's been FUD, nothingburger news on nearly a monthly basis it seems. A couple of them have had a real impact. But in the end, the market kept its long term course, following its long term cycle, and this is why we are this high right now, and not still under $10K.
Here's a list of just this year's black swan events:
China mining- Remember just several weeks ago when people were freaking out because China was banning Bitcoin miners? How some people called it one of the most bearish news in years. There were a lot of people talking about the beginning of a crypto winter. But instead the price ended up going from around $30K to $50K.
Elon Musk- People were already freaking out about a bear winter when things crashed, supposedly after Elon Musks tweets. At least that was the narrative being peddled.
India ban- But even a few months before, people were freaking out and talking about a bear market when Indian ministers were talking about banning crypto in India.
SEC securities lawsuits- That doesn't compare with how people were freaking out just weeks before, about the SEC going after almost every alts, for being securities. This was when the SEC began its lawsuit against XRP. People were talking about many alts being next, and the end of the bull market, and the end of the alt coin market.
And this was just what happened this year.
And now we have some real estate company in China tanking. Which isn't changing anything about Bitcoin or any crypto's tech or utility, or the crypto adoption or market. It's a fear ripple across markets. We've had those before.
A big one from China in 2012, when its market was tanking. And look how it turned out.
Nor is Tether likely to be a big catalyst. They may or may not have some Evergrande on their portfolio. It doesn't matter anyway, Tether was never propped up by its backing or investments, it's been surviving on just hot air and fugazi.
Seeing the volume of people selling during those events, it seems too many people freak out on the short term narratives being peddled. And probably buy back high, when most people are fomoing back at higher prices.
This is simply what most people do. I am one of those people too. I sold over stupid overhyped FUD and dips.
The price wouldn't be down now if most people weren't selling low.
And if they are panicking about their bags, it's probably because they don't have any long term bags that are in the green. And here lies the dilemma. You have to have the balls and not get emotional, and survive through a lot of fud and dips, before you can have long term bags that don't go red on dips anymore. And most people can't do that.
They're waiting for things to feel more safe before they can hold on long term. But that's never gonna happen.
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